本文選題：住房 + 收入分層��； 參考：《華中師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),全球金融危機(jī)與歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)層層疊加,使得世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)異常嚴(yán)峻,住房的財(cái)富效應(yīng)再度成為國(guó)內(nèi)外高度關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)。尤其在我國(guó),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展迅猛,房?jī)r(jià)不斷攀升,盡管?chē)?guó)家對(duì)住房市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行持續(xù)宏觀調(diào)控,其依然呈現(xiàn)整體繁榮的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)。目前,是否需要進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)宏觀調(diào)控防止可能出現(xiàn)的住房泡沫；還是注重住房對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)源性增長(zhǎng)的穩(wěn)定作用,促進(jìn)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定有待考察。顯然,在我國(guó)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)差異擴(kuò)大,且各地生活習(xí)慣差異較大的情況下,需要從區(qū)域的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及不同家庭收入水平兩方面進(jìn)行合理分析,從而為我國(guó)住房市場(chǎng)制定相應(yīng)政策提供科學(xué)的數(shù)據(jù)支持。因此,本文建立一個(gè)關(guān)于消費(fèi)的自回歸分布滯后(ARDL(2,2,2,2))模型,利用1999-2010年31個(gè)省市自治區(qū)的中高收入家庭的收入分層共計(jì)93個(gè)截面的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用動(dòng)態(tài)GMM估計(jì)方法估計(jì)我國(guó)住房的財(cái)富效應(yīng)。同時(shí)按照居民收入水平和所在地區(qū)分組回歸,試圖發(fā)現(xiàn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)在不同收入群體和地區(qū)間的區(qū)別,并依此提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,針對(duì)不同的收入群體和地區(qū)實(shí)行差別化的房地產(chǎn)政策。實(shí)證研究顯示,(1)長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)我國(guó)整體并不存在住房財(cái)富效應(yīng),但短期內(nèi)居民家庭存在抑制當(dāng)前消費(fèi)的調(diào)整行為；(2)對(duì)高收入以及中等收入家庭,房?jī)r(jià)每增長(zhǎng)10%,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)兩類(lèi)家庭分別減少1.45%-1.96%,～1.16%～1.164%的消費(fèi)支出,而對(duì)中偏高收入家庭,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)則增加消費(fèi)支出1.03%1.08%；(3)對(duì)中部地區(qū),房?jī)r(jià)每增長(zhǎng)10%,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)該區(qū)域家庭將增加0.60%～0.67%的消費(fèi)支出,而東部地區(qū)房?jī)r(jià)變動(dòng)與居民消費(fèi)支出不存在統(tǒng)計(jì)上關(guān)系,西部地區(qū)僅存在短期上的抑制性調(diào)整行為,即減少0.03%～0.18%消費(fèi)支出。 基于此,本文提出相應(yīng)的政策建議：從整體來(lái)看,政府不應(yīng)寄希望于抬高房?jī)r(jià)使得住房財(cái)富增值來(lái)促進(jìn)居民消費(fèi),帶動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)角度而言,政府應(yīng)合理控制房?jī)r(jià),促進(jìn)高收入家庭閑置資本向技術(shù)附加值較高的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移,提高投資效率,增強(qiáng)綜合國(guó)力。從地區(qū)結(jié)構(gòu)而言,為促進(jìn)住房成為擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的重要手段,政府應(yīng)積極促進(jìn)中部地區(qū)住房建設(shè),應(yīng)加強(qiáng)東部地區(qū)居民居住觀念和消費(fèi)觀念等方面的轉(zhuǎn)變,加強(qiáng)西部地區(qū)社會(huì)保障制度建設(shè)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis superimposed layer by layer, which made the world economic situation extremely grim, and the wealth effect of housing has once again become a hot spot at home and abroad. Especially in our country, the real estate market is developing rapidly, the house price is rising constantly, although the country carries on the sustained macro-control to the housing market, it still presents the overall prosperous development trend. At present, whether it is necessary to further strengthen the macro-control to prevent the possible housing bubble, or to pay attention to the stabilizing role of housing on the macroeconomic endogenous growth, and to promote macroeconomic stability remains to be investigated. Obviously, under the condition that the regional economic difference is enlarged and the living habits are quite different, we need to make a reasonable analysis from two aspects: the current situation of regional development and the different income levels of families. In order to provide scientific data support for China's housing market to formulate corresponding policies. Therefore, an autoregressive distribution lag model of consumption is established in this paper. The panel data of 93 sections of middle and high income households in 31 provinces and autonomous regions from 1999 to 2010 are used. The dynamic GMM estimation method is used to estimate the wealth effect of housing in China. At the same time, according to the income level of residents and the regional grouping regression, the paper tries to find out the difference of wealth effect among different income groups and regions, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. Different income groups and regions to implement a differentiated real estate policy. Empirical research shows that there is no housing wealth effect in China in the long run, but in the short term, households have the adjustment behavior to restrain current consumption. For every increase in house prices, in the long run, the two categories of households will decrease by 1.45-1.96 respectively 1.16percent of consumer expenditure, while for middle-to-high income families, long-term consumption expenditure will increase by 1.031.0880.The central region will increase its consumption expenditure by 0.600.67 percent in the long run for every 10 percent increase in house prices, and in the long run, the households in the region will increase their consumption expenditure by 0.600.67 percent in the long run. However, there is no statistical relationship between the change of house price and the consumption expenditure in the eastern region, but there is only a short-term restraining adjustment behavior in the western region, that is, the consumption expenditure is reduced by 0.03% or 0.18%. Based on this, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations: from the overall point of view, the government should not hope to raise house prices to increase the value of housing wealth in order to promote residents' consumption and promote economic growth. In the long run, the government should control house prices reasonably, promote the transfer of idle capital of high-income households to industries with higher added value of technology, improve investment efficiency and enhance comprehensive national strength. In terms of regional structure, in order to promote housing to become an important means to expand domestic demand, the government should actively promote housing construction in the central region, and strengthen the transformation of residents' concept of housing and consumption in the eastern region. We will strengthen the construction of the social security system in the western region.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23

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