本文選題：中國宏觀經(jīng)濟 + 穩(wěn)增長��； 參考：《經(jīng)濟研究參考》2015年44期

【摘要】：2015年第二季度,發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟體總體上企穩(wěn)回升。我國GDP同比增長7.0%,總體來說較之一季度保持平穩(wěn),某些領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)改善跡象。隨著一系列穩(wěn)增長措施加強落實、海外經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇帶動我國出口,我們對全年完成7.0%左右的增長目標(biāo)有信心。我們預(yù)測我國2015年三四季度GDP同比增速分別為7.0%和7.1%,全年GDP同比增速為7.0%左右。這一預(yù)測的核心基準(zhǔn)假設(shè)為:下半年房地產(chǎn)增速穩(wěn)定在5%左右,消費增速穩(wěn)定在11%,出口名義增速為5%,基建投資增速為20%。下半年財政政策應(yīng)主要從以下三個方面來完成保增長、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)的總?cè)蝿?wù):(1)繼續(xù)妥善實施地方政府債務(wù)置換,保障基建投資財政資金來源;(2)適度擴大年度赤字規(guī)模,盤活存量資金,加快預(yù)算進(jìn)度;(3)大力發(fā)展PPP等模式,全方位調(diào)動社會資本參與基建的積極性。目前我國地方財政面臨一些壓力,主要來自于存量的債務(wù)壓力和新增的支出壓力。我們主要從以下三個方面討論我國目前地方政府遇到的財政壓力和未來的解決辦法:(1)地方政府財政行為;(2)存量債務(wù)壓力的化解;(3)新增支出壓力的財政保障。
[Abstract]:In the second quarter of 2015, advanced economies generally stabilised and rebounded. China's GDP rose 7.0 percent from a year earlier, generally flat compared with the first quarter, with some areas showing signs of improvement. With the implementation of a series of steady growth measures and the recovery of the overseas economy, we are confident that we will achieve the growth target of about 7.0 percent for the whole year. We forecast that China's GDP growth rate in the third and fourth quarters of 2015 is 7.0% and 7.1% respectively, and the annual GDP growth rate is about 7.0%. The core assumptions of this forecast are: real estate growth is stable at about 5 percent in the second half of the year, consumption growth is stable at 11 percent, nominal export growth is 5 percent, and infrastructure investment growth is 20 percent. In the second half of the year, the fiscal policy should mainly complete growth protection from the following three aspects; the overall task of adjusting the structure should be: 1) continue to properly implement the replacement of local government debt, and ensure that the source of financial funds for infrastructure investment is to expand the scale of the annual deficit moderately. Invigorate the stock fund, accelerate the budget progress and vigorously develop the PPP model, and mobilize the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in the capital construction in all directions. At present, the local finance of our country faces some pressure, mainly from the stock debt pressure and the new expenditure pressure. From the following three aspects, we mainly discuss the financial pressure encountered by local governments in China and the future solutions: 1) Fiscal behavior of local governments and 2) the solution of the pressure of stock debt. 3) the financial guarantee of the pressure of new expenditure.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院財稅研究中心;中國社會科學(xué)院經(jīng)濟研究所;
【基金】：“我國宏觀經(jīng)濟與財政政策分析”課題的階段性研究成果,課題組組長:閆坤
【分類號】：F124;F812.0

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