本文選題：特征選擇　切入點(diǎn)：算法建模　出處：《經(jīng)濟(jì)問題探索》2014年01期

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控的成效取決于調(diào)控的切入點(diǎn),即尋找出引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲的關(guān)鍵性影響因素,但是,目前國內(nèi)外相關(guān)實(shí)證研究在特征變量提取以及建模方法上存在一些明顯不足。本文創(chuàng)新性地將算法建模與數(shù)據(jù)建模結(jié)合起來,首先利用隨機(jī)森林對(duì)解釋變量進(jìn)行篩選,進(jìn)而創(chuàng)新性地提出兼具時(shí)間因素和空間因素的動(dòng)態(tài)經(jīng)濟(jì)空間權(quán)重矩陣,并運(yùn)用加法模型及乘法模型構(gòu)建新型綜合空間效應(yīng)矩陣,對(duì)我國房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響因素開展實(shí)證研究。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,相鄰地區(qū)間房?jī)r(jià)增長(zhǎng)水平的關(guān)聯(lián)性顯著;需求結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整是房?jī)r(jià)調(diào)控的重點(diǎn);成本沖擊是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格偏離正常水平的潛在因素;房地產(chǎn)稅開征對(duì)平抑房?jī)r(jià)的效果有限。
[Abstract]:The effectiveness of real estate market regulation depends on the entry point of regulation, that is, to find out the key factors that lead to the rise of real estate prices, but, There are some obvious deficiencies in feature variable extraction and modeling methods in domestic and foreign empirical studies. This paper innovatively combines algorithm modeling with data modeling. Firstly, random forest is used to screen the explanatory variables. Then the dynamic economic spatial weight matrix with both time and space factors is proposed innovatively, and a new comprehensive spatial effect matrix is constructed by using the addition model and the multiplication model. The empirical research on the influencing factors of real estate price in China shows that the correlation of the price growth level between adjacent regions is significant, the adjustment of demand structure is the key point of housing price regulation and control. Cost shock is a potential factor for real estate prices to deviate from normal level, and the effect of levying real estate tax on stabilizing real estate prices is limited.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué);
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

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本文編號(hào)：1680264