本文選題：貨幣供應(yīng)量　切入點(diǎn)：資產(chǎn)價(jià)格　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于貨幣供應(yīng)量與通貨膨脹間具有穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系,因此中央銀行可以采取通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制,通過調(diào)控貨幣供應(yīng)量來維持較低的物價(jià)水平,為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,這已經(jīng)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界的共識(shí)。但是隨著20世紀(jì)80年代以來資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹頻頻引起金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),資產(chǎn)價(jià)格是否應(yīng)該納入傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策目標(biāo)成為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界關(guān)注的問題。因?yàn)閮H僅是一般物價(jià)水平的穩(wěn)定已經(jīng)不能夠保證經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行,資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)同樣對(duì)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)生活產(chǎn)生了舉足輕重的影響。自改革開放的近四十年來,高額的貨幣供應(yīng)量與溫和的通貨膨脹并存一直是我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的典型特征,兩者間關(guān)系對(duì)傳統(tǒng)交易方程式的背離也被稱為“中國(guó)貨幣之謎”。對(duì)于中國(guó)貨幣之謎的解釋,目前理論界存在著多種多樣的假說。鑒于我國(guó)近些年來金融市場(chǎng)及房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅速發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,本文選擇其中一種理論——金融資產(chǎn)囤積假說,從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面對(duì)其進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。該理論假說承接擴(kuò)展的貨幣數(shù)量論,兩者都將資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)納入貨幣政策分析的框架當(dāng)中,以此來解釋中國(guó)貨幣之謎的現(xiàn)象,并為貨幣政策在關(guān)注通貨膨脹的同時(shí)是否也要關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價(jià)格提供依據(jù)。本文在相關(guān)理論和研究文獻(xiàn)綜述的基礎(chǔ)上,歸納了貨幣供應(yīng)量與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間關(guān)系的理論,并在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法對(duì)貨幣量與股票價(jià)格和房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的相關(guān)性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:M2與上證指數(shù)、深證指數(shù)間均存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系;M2是房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的格蘭杰成因,脈沖響應(yīng)分析也表明,M2對(duì)我國(guó)商品房平均銷售價(jià)格有著顯著的正向影響,且正向影響持續(xù)時(shí)間較長(zhǎng)。此外,本文從我國(guó)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、信貸市場(chǎng)以及居民持有的金融資產(chǎn)的規(guī)模和結(jié)構(gòu)上,進(jìn)一步證明了金融資產(chǎn)囤積理論,即大量貨幣供應(yīng)量流入了以股票市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)為代表的資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),從而推動(dòng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上升。這在貨幣需求結(jié)構(gòu)上表現(xiàn)為執(zhí)行資產(chǎn)職能的貨幣占比上升,也使得我國(guó)多年來持續(xù)存在的超額貨幣供給并沒有引起物價(jià)水平的大幅上漲。根據(jù)以上的理論及實(shí)證分析,本文最后也提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議:貨幣當(dāng)局實(shí)施貨幣政策時(shí)應(yīng)關(guān)注資產(chǎn)價(jià)格;規(guī)范資本市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作;深化金融體制改革。
[Abstract]:Since there is a stable relationship between money supply and inflation, the central bank can adopt the inflation targeting system to maintain a relatively low price level by regulating the money supply. Providing a stable macroeconomic environment for economic development has become a consensus among economists. However, with the frequent outbreak of financial crises caused by asset price inflation since the 1980s, Whether asset prices should be incorporated into the traditional monetary policy objectives has become a concern for economists, because the stability of the general price level can no longer guarantee the smooth operation of the economy. The fluctuation of asset prices has also had a significant impact on social and economic life. Since the reform and opening up nearly 40 years ago, the coexistence of high money supply and moderate inflation has been a typical feature of China's macroeconomic operation. The departure of the relationship from the traditional trading equation is also referred to as the "mystery of Chinese currency". In view of the rapid development of financial market and real estate market in China in recent years, this paper chooses one of the theories-financial asset hoarding hypothesis. The theoretical hypothesis takes on the extended quantitative theory of money, both of which take the asset market into the framework of monetary policy analysis to explain the enigma of Chinese currency. And provides the basis for the monetary policy to pay attention to the inflation as well as the asset price. Based on the relevant theories and literature review, this paper sums up the theory of the relationship between money supply and asset price. On the basis of this, empirical analysis is made on the correlation between currency quantity and stock price and real estate price. The empirical results show that: M2 and Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and M 2 is the Granger cause of real estate price. Impulse response analysis also shows that M 2 has a significant positive effect on the average selling price of commercial housing in China. In addition, this paper further proves the theory of financial asset hoarding from the scale and structure of asset market, credit market and financial assets held by residents in China. That is, a large amount of money supply flows into the asset market, represented by the stock market and the real estate market, thus promoting the rise in asset prices. The excess money supply that has persisted in China for many years has not caused the price level to rise by a large margin. According to the above theoretical and empirical analysis, Finally, the paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions: monetary authorities should pay attention to asset prices, standardize the operation of capital market, and deepen the reform of financial system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.2

【相似文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張軍;我們需要繁榮的資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)[J];互聯(lián)網(wǎng)周刊;2005年19期

2 魯明勇;我國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)虛擬資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀及特征研究[J];中國(guó)管理信息化;2005年09期

3 魯明勇;歐陽浩男;;我國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)虛擬資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的形成及特征研究[J];全國(guó)商情(經(jīng)濟(jì)理論研究);2005年10期

4 陳艷;;我國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)虛擬資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)狀及特征研究[J];湖南醫(yī)科大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2007年01期

5 李貫岐;資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)初探[J];商業(yè)研究;1989年07期

6 姜福洋，徐大圖;舊設(shè)備資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的特性分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;1995年04期

7 戴順瑞;論存量資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的開發(fā)[J];群眾;1996年07期

8 汪濤,張巍;資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)中的價(jià)格 數(shù)量與交易成本[J];商業(yè)研究;2002年08期

9 田福庭;產(chǎn)權(quán)改革的核心:培育存量資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)機(jī)制[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);1988年12期

10 廖曙輝;;經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)開放資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)初探[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;1988年09期

相關(guān)重要報(bào)紙文章 前10條

1 羅林;資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)重新聚集上漲動(dòng)力[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2007年

2 張志勇;理性面對(duì)令人興奮的資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)[N];中華工商時(shí)報(bào);2006年

3 瑞典皇家科學(xué)院;發(fā)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)[N];華夏時(shí)報(bào);2013年

4 梁福濤;“兩個(gè)循環(huán)” 影響后續(xù)市場(chǎng)運(yùn)行[N];上海證券報(bào);2007年

5 上海�？ń�(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)研究所;通脹與通縮的詭秘變異[N];中國(guó)經(jīng)營(yíng)報(bào);2005年

6 中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)銀行大客戶部高級(jí)專員 何志成;抗通脹視野要擴(kuò)展到資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2011年

7 高改芳;要求金融機(jī)構(gòu)關(guān)注資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)變化[N];中國(guó)證券報(bào);2008年

8 本報(bào)記者 馬斌 夏峰;緊縮信號(hào)顯現(xiàn) 貨幣政策左右為難[N];上海證券報(bào);2006年

9 郭宏超 杜艷;中國(guó)資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)井噴[N];經(jīng)濟(jì)觀察報(bào);2006年

10 瑞士銀行貴金屬分析師 約翰·里德　楊明 譯;場(chǎng)外黃金投資市場(chǎng)(上)[N];中國(guó)黃金報(bào);2007年

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 陶治會(huì);資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)不穩(wěn)定性研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2014年

2 趙志剛;學(xué)習(xí)模型與資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)[D];天津大學(xué);2010年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 高明宇;中國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)量與資產(chǎn)價(jià)格關(guān)系的實(shí)證研究[D];首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué);2017年

2 張瑞冬;多資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)異質(zhì)投資者財(cái)富動(dòng)態(tài)研究[D];南京大學(xué);2013年

，

本文編號(hào)：1676966