本文選題：房地產(chǎn)　切入點：系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近十年來,房地產(chǎn)業(yè)作為支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè),成為了政府以固定資產(chǎn)投資拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要手段。與此同時,高企的房價也帶來了嚴(yán)重的社會問題。調(diào)控政策層層加碼,房價一直未能進(jìn)入下降通道,民眾對于房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策失去了信心,甚至認(rèn)為房價永遠(yuǎn)不會下降,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)永遠(yuǎn)不會出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險。隨著宏觀環(huán)境的變化,房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策趨緊,土地供應(yīng)的不斷擴(kuò)大,人口紅利漸漸消失,供求關(guān)系不斷改善,房價下跌的拐點或許會悄然來臨。同時,房地產(chǎn)市場長期的“非理性繁榮”,也引發(fā)了我們對于房地產(chǎn)價格波動對相關(guān)行業(yè)、金融系統(tǒng)乃至宏觀部門的沖擊的擔(dān)憂。 本文深入剖析我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)基本面與政策面的現(xiàn)狀,并借助影響房地產(chǎn)市場的外部因素與內(nèi)部因素,捕捉到房地產(chǎn)市場拐點的蛛絲馬跡,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)未來房地產(chǎn)供給曲線將向右下方移動,需求曲線將向左下方移動,我國房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險的腳步已經(jīng)臨近。同時本文通過實證分析證明了房地產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險對地方政府的財政狀況、金融系統(tǒng)以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)部門有較強(qiáng)的傳染效應(yīng)。在此基礎(chǔ)上,本文認(rèn)為必須建立房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的長效機(jī)制,同時宏觀審慎監(jiān)管,切斷房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險的傳染途徑。
[Abstract]:In the past decade, the real estate industry, as a pillar industry, has become an important means for the government to use fixed assets investment to stimulate economic growth. At the same time, high housing prices have also brought serious social problems. Housing prices have been unable to enter the downward path, and the public has lost confidence in real estate regulation and control policies. They even think that housing prices will never fall, and that the real estate industry will never have systemic risks. With the change of the macro environment, Real estate regulation and control policies are tightening, land supply is expanding, the demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, supply and demand relations are constantly improving, and the inflection point of falling house prices may come quietly. At the same time, The long-term "irrational boom" in the real estate market has also raised concerns about the impact of volatile property prices on related industries, the financial system and even the macro sector. This paper deeply analyzes the present situation of the fundamental and policy aspects of the real estate industry in our country, and with the help of the external and internal factors affecting the real estate market, catches the clues of the inflection point of the real estate market. This paper finds that the future real estate supply curve will move to the lower right, and the demand curve will move to the lower left. At the same time, this paper proves that the systemic risk of real estate has a strong contagion effect on the financial situation of local government, the financial system and the macroeconomic sector through the empirical analysis. This paper holds that it is necessary to establish a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and control, and at the same time, to cut off the contagion path of real estate risk by macro-prudential supervision.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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