本文選題：房價　切入點：代際交疊　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國的房地產(chǎn)市場自住房改革以來發(fā)展十分迅猛,為帶動國民經(jīng)濟的增長做出了重大的貢獻。但是,近年來房產(chǎn)價格持續(xù)飛漲,使得房價的走勢和調(diào)控一直是研究的焦點。本文以房地產(chǎn)市場的長期趨勢和影響因素為研究主題。首先,本文在分析了中國房地產(chǎn)市場的現(xiàn)狀、梳理了國內(nèi)外研究宏觀經(jīng)濟和房產(chǎn)價格經(jīng)典文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了一個代際交疊模型來研究房價上升的兩種效應(yīng)——居住驅(qū)動效應(yīng)和投資驅(qū)動效應(yīng)。居住驅(qū)動效應(yīng)指的是,消費者購買自住性房屋對房價的推動效應(yīng)。相應(yīng)的,投資驅(qū)動效應(yīng)指的是,消費者購買投資性房屋對房價的推動效應(yīng)。之后,本文選擇了以校準法為主、計量法為輔的方法進行實證分析,對中國房產(chǎn)價格進行了量化模擬。研究結(jié)果顯示:第一,房產(chǎn)價格不斷上漲的直接驅(qū)動機制為居民的居住驅(qū)動效應(yīng)和投資者的投資驅(qū)動效應(yīng),這兩者的結(jié)合能解釋中國95%以上的房價增長,其中有60%以上是投資驅(qū)動效應(yīng)所帶來的房價增長,相比美國的25%左右相去甚遠;第二,由企業(yè)TFP增速和資本產(chǎn)出份額過大導(dǎo)致的居民對房價的高預(yù)期是影響房地產(chǎn)過度投資的間接主要因素,居民對經(jīng)濟增長的預(yù)期加上對資產(chǎn)配置手段的匱乏,造成了來自需求端的巨大壓力,導(dǎo)致了資本對房地產(chǎn)投資的過度配置。最后,基于理論研究和實證分析的結(jié)論,并結(jié)合近年來政府出臺的相關(guān)政策和國外的成熟經(jīng)驗,本文對中國房地產(chǎn)市場的今后發(fā)展和調(diào)控方向給出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:China real estate market since the housing reform is very rapid development, made a significant contribution to promote the growth of the national economy. However, in recent years, real estate prices continue to soar, and the trend of price regulation is the focus of the research. Based on the long-term trend of real estate market and influence as the research subject. Firstly, this paper in the analysis of the current situation of the real estate market China, combing the foundation of the classical literature of macro economy and real estate prices at home and abroad, construct an overlapping generations model to study the effect of two kinds of housing prices rise -- living driving effect and investment driven effect. The driving effect refers to the living, consumers buy home housing prices push effect. Accordingly, investment driven effect means that consumers purchase housing investment promoting effect on prices. After that, this paper chooses a calibration method, Method of measurement by empirical analysis on real estate price Chinese quantified simulation. The results show: first, the driving effect of rising property prices in the direct driving mechanism for driving effect and investors to residential investment, this combination can explain more than 95% of the China price growth, more than 60% of them are bring the investment driven effect of the price increase, compared to about 25% of the United States from second; by the enterprise TFP growth and capital output share is too high expectations for housing prices to the residents is indirect main factors affecting the excessive investment in real estate, residents' expectations for economic growth in addition to asset allocation means the lack of cause great pressure from the demand side, leading to excessive allocation of capital to real estate investment. Finally, theoretical research and empirical analysis based on the conclusion, combined with the recent political The relevant policies of the government and the mature experience of foreign countries have given the corresponding policy suggestions to the future development and direction of the real estate market in China.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F299.23

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