本文選題：項目風(fēng)險度量　切入點(diǎn)：敏感性分析法　出處：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：二十世紀(jì)以來,我國房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)得到空前的發(fā)展,房地產(chǎn)市場逐漸壯大。2009年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)逐步擺脫金融危機(jī)的影響,中國GDP的增長也實(shí)現(xiàn)了“保8”的目標(biāo)。在這樣背景下,我國房地產(chǎn)市場也發(fā)展到了一個新的階段,全國各地房地產(chǎn)市場成交量及價格均恢復(fù)到2007年的水平。任何一個投資項目,在享受收益的同時,必然要承擔(dān)一定的風(fēng)險。房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目由于在空間上具有固定性,投資規(guī)模大,開發(fā)周期長,開發(fā)條件差、環(huán)境惡劣,開發(fā)過程程序復(fù)雜、涉及范圍廣泛,導(dǎo)致其面臨的風(fēng)險尤為巨大,需要加強(qiáng)房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目的風(fēng)險管理。對房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險管理時,只有對項目風(fēng)險進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的度量,才能保證在風(fēng)險預(yù)測、防范和控制時有據(jù)可依,更好地制定風(fēng)險管理對策。本文以雅居樂廣州科學(xué)城項目為研究對象,對該項目的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了度量。論文首先分析房地產(chǎn)項目的特點(diǎn)以及風(fēng)險度量的內(nèi)容,并結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)項目的特點(diǎn),選擇合適的房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險度量方法,為后面的實(shí)證研究提供理論依據(jù)。其次,對論文的研究對象——雅居樂廣州科學(xué)城項目,從項目地塊、規(guī)劃設(shè)計、產(chǎn)品、工期等幾個方面的概況進(jìn)行了介紹分析,特別是重點(diǎn)分析了項目的財務(wù)狀況。第三,論文分析該項目存在的風(fēng)險因素,選取了8個最為重要的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析,運(yùn)用層次分析法對雅居樂廣州科學(xué)城項目的風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了度量,結(jié)果表明材料價格上漲、施工質(zhì)量要求高、地方百姓的干擾等因素是對該項目風(fēng)險影響最大、最重要的,為風(fēng)險的控制提供了科學(xué)的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Since 20th century, China's real estate industry has experienced unprecedented development and the real estate market has gradually grown. In 2009, China's economy gradually escaped from the influence of the financial crisis, and the growth of China's GDP has also achieved the goal of "Bao8". The real estate market in our country has also developed to a new stage. The volume and price of real estate markets in various parts of the country have recovered to the level of 2007. Any investment project, while enjoying the benefits, Because of its fixed space, large investment scale, long development period, poor development conditions, bad environment, complex development process and wide range, real estate development projects must bear certain risks. It is necessary to strengthen the risk management of the real estate development project. In the real estate risk management, only when the project risk is accurately measured, can the risk be predicted, prevented and controlled on the basis of evidence. This paper takes the project of Guangzhou Science City as the research object, measures the risk of the project. Firstly, the paper analyzes the characteristics of the real estate project and the content of the risk measurement. Combined with the characteristics of real estate projects, choose the appropriate real estate project risk measurement methods, for the following empirical research to provide theoretical basis. Secondly, the research object of the paper-Yajulue Guangzhou Science City project, from the project land, The general situation of planning, design, product, time limit and so on are introduced and analyzed, especially the financial status of the project. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the risk factors existing in the project and selects eight of the most important risks to analyze. The risk of Guangzhou Science City is measured by AHP. The results show that the increase of material price, the high quality of construction and the interference of local people are the most important factors affecting the risk of the project. It provides scientific basis for risk control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.4

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本文編號：1614052