本文選題：通脹預(yù)期　切入點：SVAR模型　出處：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：本文首先基于我國央行2001年2季度（2001.03~2001.05）至2012年1季度（2011.12~2012.02）的儲戶問卷調(diào)查，使用C-P概率轉(zhuǎn)換法求得居民通脹預(yù)期序列。在對我國居民通脹預(yù)期的性質(zhì)進行檢驗以后，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國居民的通脹預(yù)期是不完全理性的。 其次，作者使用SVAR模型框架深入研究其影響因素和形成機制，通過脈沖響應(yīng)圖分析了消費價格指數(shù)、資產(chǎn)價格、總需求等宏觀經(jīng)濟變量以及央行信息披露、實際干預(yù)對通脹預(yù)期的影響。對于其中的央行信息披露變量。本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國居民通脹預(yù)期受消費價格指數(shù)以及房地產(chǎn)價格的影響較大，要重點關(guān)注這兩個指標(biāo)的變動情況，為管理通脹預(yù)期營造一個良好的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境；央行信息披露比傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策工具在引導(dǎo)居民預(yù)期方面時滯更短，但利率工具對通脹預(yù)期的影響程度從長期來看大于信息披露。因此，管理通脹預(yù)期時應(yīng)綜合運用信息披露和實際干預(yù)，以使通脹預(yù)期在短期和長期內(nèi)都能得到良好錨定。 再次，，作者對我國部分年輕居民進行了通脹預(yù)期問卷調(diào)查，發(fā)現(xiàn)日常消費品價格、油價、過去的價格及走勢、貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平、房價以及官方的信息披露等是影響通脹預(yù)期的重要因素。進一步地，通過對調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進行l(wèi)ogistic建模，作者發(fā)現(xiàn)被調(diào)查者的通脹預(yù)期高低、通脹預(yù)期粘性在人口統(tǒng)計學(xué)意義上的異質(zhì)性并不明顯，而央行信任度的性別差異卻十分顯著。 最后，文章有針對性地給出了若干管理通脹預(yù)期的對策。例如建立并完善通脹預(yù)期的高頻監(jiān)測體系；控制好信貸投放規(guī)模，管理好流動性；實行通脹目標(biāo)制；提高央行信息披露的有效性和聲譽等等。
[Abstract]:Based on the questionnaire survey conducted by the Central Bank of China in the second quarter of 2001, 2001.03 / 2001.05) to the first quarter of 2012 (2011.1212 / 2012.02), the C-P probabilistic transformation method is used to obtain the inflation expectation sequence of residents. It is found that the inflation expectations of Chinese residents are not completely rational. Secondly, the author uses the SVAR model framework to study the influencing factors and formation mechanism, and analyzes the macroeconomic variables, such as consumer price index, asset price, aggregate demand, and the information disclosure of the central bank through impulse response graph. The effect of actual intervention on inflation expectation. For the information disclosure variable of central bank, this paper finds that the consumer price index and real estate price influence the inflation expectation of Chinese residents. It is necessary to focus on the changes in these two indicators, so as to create a good macroeconomic environment for managing inflation expectations, and the information disclosure of the central bank has a shorter time lag than the traditional monetary policy tools in guiding residents' expectations. But interest rate instruments have a greater impact on inflation expectations in the long run than information disclosure. Therefore, the management of inflation expectations should be managed with a combination of information disclosure and actual intervention so that inflation expectations can be well anchored in the short and long term. Thirdly, the author conducted a questionnaire survey on inflation expectations among some young residents in China, and found that the prices of daily consumer goods, oil prices, past prices and trends, money supply, economic development level, Housing prices and official information disclosure are important factors affecting inflation expectations. Further, by using the logistic model of the survey data, the author finds that the inflation expectations of the respondents are high or low. The demographic heterogeneity of inflation expectation stickiness is not obvious, but the gender difference of central bank trust is very significant. Finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures to manage inflation expectation, such as establishing and perfecting the high frequency monitoring system of inflation expectation, controlling the scale of credit, managing the liquidity, implementing inflation target system; Improve the effectiveness and reputation of central bank information disclosure and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.5

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