本文選題：房地產泡沫　切入點：測度　出處：《湖南農業(yè)大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：深圳是全國房地產業(yè)發(fā)展較快的城市之一。進入21世紀以后,深圳關內可開發(fā)的土地逐漸減少,房地產開發(fā)的重點開始由關內向關外發(fā)展。寶安區(qū)因其優(yōu)越的地理位置而頗受開發(fā)商的青睞,房價也不斷上升,近年來寶安區(qū)的房地產開發(fā)量已經占全市的80%以上,因此,寶安區(qū)是否存在泡沫是值得關注的。在這種背景下,判斷深圳市寶安區(qū)是否存在泡沫,對制定措施抑制房地產泡沫的產生促進寶安區(qū)房地產市場的合理運作具有重要的意義。 本文在研究房地產泡沫相關理論知識的基礎上,分析了房地產泡沫測度方法的適用性：價格法和統(tǒng)計檢驗法精確度高,要求數據量大,適用區(qū)域較小,指標法應用簡單,適用性強,但帶有較強主觀性。因此,本文運用指標法和因子分析法對2001-2010年的寶安區(qū)房地產市場泡沫狀況進行測度。研究結果如下： (1)2002年和2009年寶安區(qū)存在較為嚴重的泡沫,但總體而言房地產市場運行較為平穩(wěn)。 (2)2001-2010年深圳寶安區(qū)房地產市場可分為兩個階段,第一個階段為2001-2005年,第二個階段為2006-2010年,這兩個階段體現(xiàn)了寶安區(qū)房地產泡沫膨脹與萎縮的周期,其變化主要受房地產調控的影響。 (3)寶安區(qū)房地產市場對外部影響的抵抗力不強,容易出現(xiàn)較大振動,導致房地產市場的運行失常。 基于以上研究結果,本文從土地、金融政策以及稅收等六個方面,對保障房地產市場的健康提出了建議。
[Abstract]:Shenzhen is one of the cities with rapid real estate development in China. Since 21th century, the land available for development in Shenzhen has gradually decreased. The focus of real estate development has begun to develop from inside Guan to outside Guan. Baoan District is favored by developers because of its superior geographical location, and house prices are also rising. In recent years, Baoan District has accounted for more than 80% of the city's real estate development, so, Under this background, judging whether there is a bubble in Baoan District of Shenzhen City is of great significance to the establishment of measures to restrain the emergence of real estate bubble and to promote the rational operation of real estate market in Baoan District. On the basis of studying the theory knowledge of real estate bubble, this paper analyzes the applicability of the real estate bubble measurement method: the price method and the statistical test method have high accuracy, large amount of data, small applicable area, and simple application of the index method. Therefore, this paper uses index method and factor analysis method to measure the bubble situation of real estate market in Baoan district from 2001 to 2010. The results are as follows:. In 2002 and 2009, there were more serious bubbles in Baoan district, but overall the real estate market was stable. The real estate market in Baoan District of Shenzhen from 2001 to 2010 can be divided into two stages: the first stage is 2001-2005 and the second stage is 2006-2010. These two phases embody the cycle of real estate bubble expansion and contraction in Baoan District. Its change is mainly affected by real estate regulation and control. 3) the real estate market in Baoan district is not strong against the external influence, and it is easy to vibrate, which leads to the abnormal operation of the real estate market. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to ensure the health of the real estate market from six aspects: land, financial policy and taxation.
【學位授予單位】：湖南農業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23

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本文編號：1577314