本文選題：住宅價格　切入點：基本面　出處：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)一頭聯(lián)著民生，一頭聯(lián)系經(jīng)濟，是關(guān)乎國計民生的重要行業(yè)，其對改善居民居住條件和城鄉(xiāng)面貌，促進消費、擴大內(nèi)需、拉動投資，帶動建筑、建材等相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展及社會經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展，發(fā)揮了重要的作用。但高速的發(fā)展同時，隱藏著的問題逐步凸顯，在一系列資源配置、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等問題中，最嚴重的莫過于關(guān)乎民生的房價問題。伴隨著房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮發(fā)展，與國人福利水平密切相關(guān)的住宅價格也在一路高漲，不斷沖擊大家已經(jīng)盡量提高的心理預(yù)期。使得房價問題越來越成為關(guān)注的焦點，受到各方關(guān)注，給經(jīng)濟健康發(fā)展、社會和諧穩(wěn)定提出了新的挑戰(zhàn)。所以本文目的在于，通過我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的問題，，找出問題的原因，及提出解決問題的政策建議。 本文首先從影響住宅價格的供需基本面入手，分析相關(guān)指標，確定剛性需求、投資需求和基本供給為主線，以人口密度、人均工資、貨幣供應(yīng)量、利率水平、土地價格和房屋竣工面積為主要指標，通過2001-2012年中國35個主要城市的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，運用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，分析房價影響因素，進而擬合出各個城市的合理房價，并與各市實際房價進行對比分析。并進一步分析與房價增長率密切相關(guān)的基本面指標，即CPI、GDP、房租和收入，運用房價增長率與相關(guān)指標增長率做比，再借助熵權(quán)法確定各增長率比值的權(quán)重，用綜合指標值來分析、評價房價增長率，從另一側(cè)面佐證和補充我國城市房價問題的現(xiàn)狀。 通過兩方面實證分析的綜合評價，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國主要城市房價整體偏高，大多城市在2006年左右出現(xiàn)爆發(fā)式增長，一些經(jīng)濟發(fā)達城市的實際房價高出擬合房價的50%，一般城市也在25%左右，嚴重背離基本面，出現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)過熱現(xiàn)象，甚至存在房地產(chǎn)泡沫的風(fēng)險。且房價過高的主要癥結(jié)在于投資性需求和土地供給，其深層次的原因在于我國金融領(lǐng)域的內(nèi)在缺陷，使得大量資金不斷涌入市場，但流通環(huán)節(jié)不暢，資金無法合理、有序融通，只得推高房價，再有就是中央政府制定房價調(diào)控政策未形成長效機制，而地方政府為了維護當?shù)亟?jīng)濟和地方財政，調(diào)控房價積極性不高，未能貫徹實施房價調(diào)控政策，致使地價高起、房價難控。文章在最后提出一些合理化政策建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate links people's livelihood and economy. It is an important industry related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. It can improve the living conditions of residents and the outlook of urban and rural areas, promote consumption, expand domestic demand, stimulate investment, and drive construction. The development of building materials and other related industries, as well as the development of social economy, have played an important role. However, with the rapid development, hidden problems have gradually become prominent, in a series of problems such as resource allocation, economic development, etc. The most serious problem is housing prices, which are related to people's livelihood. With the prosperity of the real estate market, housing prices, which are closely related to the welfare level of the people, are also rising. The constant impact on the psychological expectations that everyone has tried to raise has made the issue of house prices more and more the focus of attention. It has brought new challenges to the healthy development of the economy and social harmony and stability. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to, Through the problem of real estate industry in our country, find out the reason of the problem, and put forward the policy suggestion to solve the problem. This paper begins with the supply and demand fundamentals that affect housing prices, analyzes relevant indicators, determines rigid demand, investment demand and basic supply as the main line, taking population density, per capita wage, money supply, interest rate level as the main line. Based on the data of 35 major cities in China from 2001 to 2012, the paper analyzes the influencing factors of house price by using panel data model, and then fits the reasonable housing price of each city. And compared with the actual housing prices in various cities, and further analyzed the fundamental indicators closely related to the growth rate of house prices, that is, CPI GDP, rent and income, and used the rate of house price growth to compare with the growth rate of related indicators. Then the weight of each growth rate is determined by the entropy weight method, and the comprehensive index value is used to analyze and evaluate the housing price growth rate, and the present situation of the urban housing price problem in China is corroborated and supplemented from the other side. Through the comprehensive evaluation of two aspects of empirical analysis, it is found that the housing prices of the major cities in our country are on the high side as a whole, and most cities experienced explosive growth in 2006 or so. The actual housing prices in some economically developed cities are higher than the 50 percent that fit the house prices, and the average city is also around 25%, which seriously deviates from the fundamentals and appears the phenomenon of overheating of real estate. There is even the risk of a real estate bubble. Moreover, the main sticking point of excessive housing prices lies in the investment demand and land supply. The deep reason lies in the inherent defects in the financial field of our country, which makes a large number of funds pour into the market. However, the circulation links are not smooth, the funds cannot be reasonably and orderly financed, so they have to push up the house prices. Another is that the central government has not formed a long-term mechanism for regulating and controlling housing prices. In order to safeguard the local economy and local finance, the local governments have to maintain the local economy and local finance. The enthusiasm of controlling house price is not high and the policy of controlling house price has not been carried out, which leads to the rise of land price and the difficulty of controlling house price. At the end of this paper, some rational policy suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23


本文編號：1569350