本文選題：商品房價格　切入點：居民消費　出處：《武漢金融》2014年04期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文運用狀態(tài)空間模型分析了政府房地產(chǎn)市場"去投資化"調(diào)控對商品房價格及房地產(chǎn)財富效應(yīng)的影響。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,調(diào)控后房價增幅穩(wěn)步下降,并在2011年出現(xiàn)明顯的下降態(tài)勢。時變參數(shù)估計表明商品房市場的財富效應(yīng)存在且在調(diào)控前后出現(xiàn)顯著變化:房地產(chǎn)價格對居民消費和房地產(chǎn)投資的促進作用迅速減弱甚至在部分時期擠出消費,意味著此輪房地產(chǎn)市場"去投資化"調(diào)控對平抑房價快速上漲取得了應(yīng)有成效。2013年樓市價格反彈且消費的財富效應(yīng)再度顯現(xiàn)表明"去投資化"的需求調(diào)控并不具備持久性,長期中政府需要配合住房供給的改善,從政府、企業(yè)、居民三方面解決房地產(chǎn)市場供給不足的矛盾,實現(xiàn)房地產(chǎn)市場的供求平衡。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the effect of "deinvestment" regulation of government real estate market on the real estate price and real estate wealth effect by using the state space model. The time-varying parameter estimation indicates that the wealth effect of the commercial housing market exists and changes significantly before and after regulation: the real estate price promotes the resident consumption and the real estate investment rapidly. Weakening and even squeezing out consumption in part of the time, This means that this round of "deinvestment" regulation in the real estate market has achieved due results in curbing the rapid rise in house prices. In 2013, when property prices rebounded and the wealth effect of consumption re-emerged, it showed that the demand regulation of "deinvestment" was not durable. In the long run, the government should cooperate with the improvement of housing supply, solve the contradiction of insufficient supply of real estate market from three aspects of government, enterprise and resident, and realize the balance of supply and demand of real estate market.
【作者單位】： 武漢輕工大學(xué);
【基金】：武漢輕工大學(xué)引進人才科研啟動資金資助項目(項目編號:2012RS10)
【分類號】：F293.3

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本文編號：1560164