本文選題：房地產(chǎn)價格　切入點：通貨膨脹　出處：《蘇州大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來我國房地產(chǎn)價格一路高漲，逐漸超出正常居民的承受能力，高房價成為大家關(guān)注的現(xiàn)實問題。伴隨著高房價，我國通貨膨脹壓力日趨增大，物價走勢與房價波動表現(xiàn)出較高一致性。因此，研究房地產(chǎn)價格波動對通貨膨脹的影響，，有助于深化理論界對金融穩(wěn)定和物價穩(wěn)定的認識，為我國制定和執(zhí)行有效的宏觀調(diào)控政策提供理論依據(jù)和方向指導，促進房地產(chǎn)市場與國民經(jīng)濟的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 本文在借鑒國內(nèi)外已有研究成果的基礎上，對房地產(chǎn)價格變動對通貨膨脹的影響展開了理論研究和實證分析。首先對我國房價波動現(xiàn)狀進行了概述，從波動趨勢、特點以及社會影響方面對我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動現(xiàn)狀進行分析，然后從理論上探討研究房地產(chǎn)價格波動對通貨膨脹影響的傳導機制，房價波動會通過資產(chǎn)的財富效應、托賓Q效應、資產(chǎn)負債表效應等渠道影響社會的總需求，進而影響一般物價水平。繼而以2008年至2012年間我國相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本，運用協(xié)整檢驗和向量誤差修正模型、格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應函數(shù)和方差分解等計量方法，對房地產(chǎn)價格變動對通貨膨脹的關(guān)系展開實證分析。結(jié)果顯示，我國房地產(chǎn)價格波動與通貨膨脹之間存在長期穩(wěn)定的正向相關(guān)關(guān)系，房價波動在長期對通貨膨脹有一定正向影響，短期對通貨膨脹的影響不顯著；在影響通貨膨脹上漲的各因素中，房地產(chǎn)價格變動對通貨膨脹影響占主要因素。最后，本文將研究結(jié)論與我國經(jīng)濟的實際情形相結(jié)合，建議政府應重視房地產(chǎn)價格變動對通貨膨脹的影響及對通脹預期的指示作用，發(fā)揮利率杠桿等宏觀調(diào)控工具，以維持房地產(chǎn)市場的穩(wěn)定和經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展，使得通貨膨脹保持在合理水平內(nèi)，提高人民的生活水平。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate prices in our country have been rising all the time, gradually exceeding the normal residents' affordability. High house prices have become a realistic problem that everyone pays close attention to. With the high housing prices, the inflationary pressure in our country is increasing day by day. Therefore, studying the impact of real estate price fluctuation on inflation is helpful to deepen the theoretical understanding of financial and price stability. It provides theoretical basis and direction guidance for the formulation and implementation of effective macro-control policies in China and promotes the coordinated development of the real estate market and the national economy. Based on the existing research results at home and abroad, this paper has carried out theoretical research and empirical analysis on the impact of real estate price changes on inflation. Firstly, the current situation of house price fluctuation in China has been summarized, and the fluctuation trend has been analyzed. The characteristics and social impact of real estate price fluctuation in China are analyzed, and then the transmission mechanism of real estate price fluctuation to inflation is studied theoretically. The price fluctuation will pass through the wealth effect of assets. Tobin Q effect, balance sheet effect and other channels affect the total demand of the society, and then affect the general price level. Then, taking the relevant data from 2008 to 2012 as the sample, we use the cointegration test and vector error correction model. Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the relationship between real estate price change and inflation. There is a long-term stable positive correlation between the fluctuation of real estate price and inflation in China. The fluctuation of house price has a positive effect on inflation in the long run, but the impact on inflation is not significant in the short term. Among the factors that influence inflation, the change of real estate price plays a major role in inflation. Finally, this paper combines the conclusions of the study with the actual situation of China's economy. It is suggested that the government should attach importance to the influence of the change of real estate prices on inflation and the indicative role of inflation expectations, and exert the interest rate lever and other macro-control tools in order to maintain the stability of the real estate market and the sustainable development of the economy. Keep inflation within a reasonable level and raise the standard of living of the people.
【學位授予單位】：蘇州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.23;F822.5

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