本文關鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn)市場 階段性趨勢 商業(yè)銀行 融資模式　出處：《新金融》2017年08期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：2016年商品房市場銷售額進入歷史性高位,但在2017年3月之后迅速"冷凍",在這一輪最嚴調(diào)控的背后,是市場"長效機制"的胎動,還是僅僅為政策的"應時之舉"?作為房企和購房者主要融資渠道的商業(yè)銀行,未來將如何開展房地產(chǎn)市場業(yè)務?回答這些問題均需要對房地產(chǎn)市場走勢和房企盈利模式進行不同階段的預判。短期來看,并購重組和價值提升成為地產(chǎn)市場的短期主線;中期來看,市場分化進一步顯著,一線城市和熱點二線城市的"棚改"項目將成為市場業(yè)務主力軍;長期來看,老齡化社會的來臨預示著養(yǎng)老、旅游等新型業(yè)態(tài)模式將漸趨主流。對此,商業(yè)銀行也應采取階段性和差異化的業(yè)務開展策略:短期來看,可重點推進一線和二線核心城市房地產(chǎn)項目并購融資和開發(fā)貸款聯(lián)動模式,以及棚改和自住型商品房PPP合作模式;中期來看,應有序推進一線及部分熱點二線城市的類REITs、CMBS等創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品;長期來看,要推進養(yǎng)老地產(chǎn)、特色小城鎮(zhèn)、旅游地產(chǎn)等地產(chǎn)新興項目的開發(fā)融資。
[Abstract]:In 2016, the commercial housing market sales reached a historic high, but after March 2017 quickly "frozen", in this round of the most stringent control behind, is the market "long-term effect mechanism." Or is it just a policy response? As housing enterprises and buyers of the main financing channels of commercial banks, how to carry out the real estate market business in the future? To answer these questions, we need to predict the trend of real estate market and the profit model of real estate enterprises in different stages. In the short run, M & A and value promotion become the main line of real estate market. In the medium term, the market differentiation is further remarkable, the "shed reform" project of first-tier cities and hot second-tier cities will become the main force of market business; In the long run, the coming of aging society indicates that the new pattern of old-age care and tourism will gradually become mainstream. For this, commercial banks should also adopt the strategy of stage and differentiation of business development: in the short term. It can focus on promoting the mode of merger and acquisition financing and development loan of the core urban real estate projects in the first and second lines, as well as the PPP cooperation mode of the shed reform and the self-occupied commercial housing; In the medium term, innovative products such as REITs and CMBS should be promoted in an orderly manner. Long-term, to promote endowment property, small towns, tourism real estate and other new real estate development financing.
【作者單位】： 中國工商銀行博士后科研工作站;中國工商銀行投資銀行部;中國社會科學院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【分類號】：F299.23;F832.4
【正文快照】： 進入2017年,絕大多數(shù)房地產(chǎn)的利益相關者嗅到了新的風向:商品房市場銷售額在2016年超過10萬億元后,行業(yè)進入歷史性高位;這一輪最嚴調(diào)控的背后是“長效機制”的胎動;房地產(chǎn)市場的主流參與者也可能意識到,依靠過去路徑實現(xiàn)大規(guī)模增長的長期基礎已削弱。過去一年多,萬科提出“白

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