本文關(guān)鍵詞： 房地產(chǎn) 制造業(yè) 促進(jìn)效應(yīng) 擠出效應(yīng) 非參數(shù)逐點回歸　出處：《西南大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來房地產(chǎn)市場呈現(xiàn)迅猛發(fā)展的趨勢,房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的繁榮帶動了鋼材、水泥等上下游近百個產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展,對拉動制造業(yè)起著不可磨滅的作用,房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)也取得了巨大的利潤。但與房地產(chǎn)形成鮮明對比的是我國的制造業(yè),隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的延續(xù),制造業(yè)出口仍陷于困境之中。與此同時“人口紅利”逐漸消失,勞動力成本不斷提高,土地等要素價格的持續(xù)上漲,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)成本上漲的壓力及國際出口競爭的壓力導(dǎo)致制造企業(yè)的利潤被無限壓低,我國傳統(tǒng)的制造業(yè)發(fā)展已經(jīng)遇到了瓶頸。那么,我國的制造業(yè)困境是否與房地產(chǎn)有關(guān)?房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮除了拉動制造業(yè)發(fā)展之外是否也對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生了擠出效應(yīng)?房地產(chǎn)對制造業(yè)的影響原理是什么? 為了回答以上問題,本文從理論和實證兩個方面研究了房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)的影響。首先,借鑒前人的理論并運用邏輯分析法分析了房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生影響的原理,包括產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)理論、托賓Q理論、金融加速理論及財富效應(yīng)理論。其次,本文運用描述性統(tǒng)計方法對房地產(chǎn)及制造業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)我國房地產(chǎn)規(guī)模增大、金融化進(jìn)程加快、投資收益較高及投機(jī)行為普遍,而制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新滯后、盈利能力弱化及主營業(yè)務(wù)萎縮。最后,本文搭建了房地產(chǎn)對制造業(yè)影響的面板非參數(shù)檢驗?zāi)Ｐ?分別對宏觀面板數(shù)據(jù)、區(qū)域面板數(shù)據(jù)和行業(yè)面板數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實證分析,并運用逐點回歸的方法展示房地產(chǎn)對制造業(yè)影響的動態(tài)演化過程。 本文的研究結(jié)論有：1.從房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)的影響上來看,分為促進(jìn)效應(yīng)和擠出效應(yīng)。房地產(chǎn)投資通過產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)、托賓Q效應(yīng)與金融加速效應(yīng)、財富效應(yīng)對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)效應(yīng)；通過推高要素價格、資金擠出效應(yīng)、妨礙技術(shù)進(jìn)步和引發(fā)投機(jī)對制造業(yè)產(chǎn)生擠出效應(yīng)。2.從宏觀視角來看房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)有拉動作用,但拉動作用接近“臨界值”。說明房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)占主導(dǎo)地位,但促進(jìn)效應(yīng)逐漸減小,擠出效應(yīng)逐漸增大。逐點回歸圖顯示房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)的影響呈現(xiàn)出“倒U”型,房地產(chǎn)投資達(dá)到“門檻值”后,對制造業(yè)的拉動作用逐漸弱化并趨于零。3.東西部地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)存在拉動作用,說明促進(jìn)效應(yīng)大于擠出效應(yīng),但中部地區(qū)有明顯的擠出效應(yīng)。由于東中西部產(chǎn)業(yè)構(gòu)成、產(chǎn)品面向的市場、房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展等情況的不同,東中西部房地產(chǎn)投資對制造業(yè)的影響存在差異。4.房地產(chǎn)對不同的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響存在差異性。本文選取了金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)、化學(xué)工業(yè)、非金屬礦物制品業(yè)這三個與房地產(chǎn)投資密切相關(guān)的制造業(yè)行業(yè)來進(jìn)行檢驗,實證結(jié)果表明房地產(chǎn)均拉動了三者的發(fā)展,但動態(tài)影響圖呈現(xiàn)不同的趨勢。 基于上述研究結(jié)論,本文提出以下政策建議：1.抑制房地產(chǎn)市場的非理性繁榮,擠出房地產(chǎn)市場投機(jī)者。盡快出臺房地產(chǎn)稅,完成不動產(chǎn)統(tǒng)一登記,針對不同的人群實施差異化房地產(chǎn)貸款利率。2.制定差別化房地產(chǎn)政策,增強房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控的針對性。應(yīng)對不同城市的房地產(chǎn)分類施策、分城施策,避免全國范圍內(nèi)“一刀切”的房地產(chǎn)政策。3.引導(dǎo)金融回歸實體經(jīng)濟(jì),支持實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。要大力發(fā)展與中小企業(yè)相對應(yīng)的普惠金融體系,建立多層次的金融擔(dān)保體系,加快推進(jìn)中小企業(yè)信用擔(dān)保政策,構(gòu)建和完善資本市場體系。4.營造制造業(yè)發(fā)展的良性外部環(huán)境,促進(jìn)制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級。應(yīng)完善稅收政策體系、增加對職業(yè)教育的資金投入、加強企業(yè)與科研機(jī)構(gòu)之間的合作。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate market showed a trend of rapid development, the prosperity of the real estate industry led to the development of steel, cement and other downstream 100 industry, to stimulate manufacturing plays an indelible role, the real estate enterprises also made huge profits. But in contrast with the real estate is the manufacturing industry of our country and as a continuation of the global economic downturn, manufacturing exports are still in trouble. At the same time the "demographic dividend" gradually disappear, rising labor costs, rising land prices, rising domestic production costs of the pressure and the pressure of competition in international export manufacturing firm's profit is unlimited down, our manufacturing industry development the traditional Chinese has encountered a bottleneck. So, whether the plight of China's manufacturing industry and real estate related? The prosperity of the real estate market in addition to stimulating the development of manufacturing industry is to What is the effect of the manufacturing industry on the manufacturing industry?
In order to answer the above questions, this paper studies the impact of real estate investment in manufacturing industry from two aspects of theory and empirical research. Firstly, based on the previous theory and using the logical analysis of the principle of real estate investment impact on the manufacturing industry, including industry association theory, Tobin Q theory, financial accelerator theory and the theory of wealth effect secondly, this paper uses descriptive statistical method and the current situation of the real estate industry analysis, China's real estate financial scale increases, accelerated urbanization, higher investment income and speculative behavior in general, while the manufacturing industry overcapacity, technological innovation lag, weakening profitability and the main business contraction. Finally, this paper set up the impact of real estate on the manufacturing panel of the non parametric test model, respectively, on the macro panel data, panel data and Regional Panel Data and industry were analyzed, and the use of point back The method of return shows the dynamic evolution of the impact of real estate on the manufacturing industry.
The conclusions of this study are: 1. from the real estate investment impact on manufacturing point of view, to promote effect and crowding out effect. The real estate investment by industry association effect, Tobin's Q effect and the financial acceleration effect, wealth effect in promoting effect on the manufacturing industry; through higher factor prices, crowding out funds, hinder technological progress and speculation crowding out.2. from the macro perspective of real estate investment in manufacturing industry has a stimulating effect on the manufacturing industry, but the stimulating effect is close to "critical value". To promote the effect of real estate investment in manufacturing industry occupies the dominant position, but the effect decreases gradually, the crowding out effect increases gradually. By regression show the impact of real estate investment in manufacturing showing "inverted U" type, the real estate investment to reach the "threshold value", pulling effect on manufacturing industry gradually weakened and the East tends to zero.3. The real estate investment stimulating effect on the manufacturing industry, indicated that the promotion effect is greater than the crowding out effect, but the central region has significant crowding out effect. Because of the eastern and western industry, products for the market, the real estate market development situation is different, the eastern and Western real estate investment impact on the manufacturing sector there are significant differences in.4. real estate for different manufacturing industries are different. This paper chooses the metal product manufacturing industry, chemical industry, manufacturing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, with three real estate investment is closely related to the test, the empirical results show that the real estate are stimulating the development of the three, but the dynamic influence diagrams show different the trend.
Based on the above research conclusion, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: 1. inhibiting the irrational prosperity of the real estate market, out of the real estate market speculators. The introduction of real estate tax as soon as possible to complete the unified registration of immovable property, the implementation of differentiated real estate loan interest.2. for differentiated real estate policy for different groups of people, strengthen the regulation of real estate targeted. The real estate policy to deal with the classification of different city, city facilities strategy, avoid the nationwide "across the board" real estate policy.3. the financial return to the real economy, to support the real economy. We should vigorously develop small and medium-sized enterprises and corresponding to the inclusive financial system, establish a multi-level financial guarantee system speeding up, the SMEs credit guarantee policy, constructing and perfecting the capital market system to create a.4. development of the manufacturing industry benign external environment, promote industrial upgrading of manufacturing industry should improve the tax system. The policy system will increase funding for vocational education and strengthen cooperation between enterprises and scientific research institutions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23;F424

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 李成武;;中國房地產(chǎn)財富效應(yīng)地區(qū)差異分析[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2010年02期

2 劉水杏;房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)度的國際比較[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2004年04期

3 黃忠華;吳次芳;杜雪君;;房地產(chǎn)投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——全國及區(qū)域?qū)用娴拿姘鍞?shù)據(jù)分析[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟(jì);2008年08期

4 齊謳歌;周新生;王滿倉;;房價水平、交通成本與產(chǎn)業(yè)區(qū)位分布關(guān)系再考量[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2012年01期

5 李啟明;論中國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)與國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系[J];中國房地產(chǎn);2002年06期

6 吳海民;;資產(chǎn)價格波動、通貨膨脹與產(chǎn)業(yè)“空心化”——基于我國沿海地區(qū)民營工業(yè)面板數(shù)據(jù)的實證研究[J];中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年01期

7 胡放之;望艷;;勞動成本、勞動生產(chǎn)率與中國制造業(yè)企業(yè)的競爭力[J];改革與戰(zhàn)略;2012年02期

8 李宏瑾;房地產(chǎn)市場、銀行信貸與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長——基于面板數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)驗研究[J];國際金融研究;2005年07期

9 國家統(tǒng)計局綜合司課題組;;關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的初步分析[J];管理世界;2005年11期

10 姚樹潔;戴穎杰;;房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)財富效應(yīng)的區(qū)域效應(yīng)與時序差異:基于動態(tài)面板模型的估計[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2012年06期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 黃靜;中國房地產(chǎn)價格上漲的廣義財富效應(yīng)研究[D];上海交通大學(xué);2010年

2 主父海英;金融負(fù)外部性研究[D];遼寧大學(xué);2010年

3 杜鵬;中國制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級研究[D];武漢大學(xué);2012年

，

本文編號：1454969