發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-20 04:26

  本文關(guān)鍵詞： 商業(yè)地產(chǎn) 前期策劃 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《吉林建筑大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著中國(guó)特色社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的逐步完善，國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)水平的日益發(fā)展，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)占有我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要地位。在國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控和拉動(dòng)內(nèi)需的政策指導(dǎo)下，，住宅地產(chǎn)逐漸降溫，商業(yè)地產(chǎn)成為房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)商的投資熱點(diǎn)。但是商業(yè)地產(chǎn)除了具有物業(yè)增值相對(duì)較快和后期運(yùn)營(yíng)可獲取高額利潤(rùn)等優(yōu)勢(shì)之外，作為兼具商貿(mào)、地產(chǎn)和投資屬性的復(fù)合型產(chǎn)業(yè)，它的運(yùn)營(yíng)環(huán)節(jié)較多且復(fù)雜，開(kāi)發(fā)周期長(zhǎng)，所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)比其他地產(chǎn)類(lèi)型更多，造成的損失更大。為保證項(xiàng)目獲取更多利潤(rùn)防止項(xiàng)目失敗，房地產(chǎn)商在開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程中應(yīng)當(dāng)注重前期策劃環(huán)節(jié)，為項(xiàng)目成功盈利制定從立項(xiàng)、實(shí)施到運(yùn)營(yíng)整套計(jì)劃方案，并在前期策劃過(guò)程中識(shí)別預(yù)期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，客觀準(zhǔn)確的評(píng)價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為項(xiàng)目減小損失的幾率增大項(xiàng)目盈利機(jī)會(huì)。 我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)僅三十年時(shí)間，雖然商業(yè)地產(chǎn)投資持續(xù)升溫，但是我國(guó)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)還處于經(jīng)驗(yàn)較少，理論知識(shí)不夠豐富的發(fā)展初級(jí)階段。因此，本文從商業(yè)地產(chǎn)的理論研究入手，結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)理論，根據(jù)我國(guó)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀對(duì)其所存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別，并研究層次分析法原理，通過(guò)matlab編寫(xiě)程序構(gòu)建數(shù)學(xué)模型，將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從文字描述升級(jí)為定量數(shù)據(jù)化，使決策者在決策過(guò)程中有準(zhǔn)確、科學(xué)的決策依據(jù)。 本文以長(zhǎng)春市某商業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目為例，對(duì)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，分析過(guò)程中結(jié)合專(zhuān)家評(píng)價(jià)法和數(shù)學(xué)模型，評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果符合項(xiàng)目的實(shí)際情況，因此，在商業(yè)地產(chǎn)前期策劃過(guò)中，本文可為項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和評(píng)估提供科學(xué)的定性與定量分析。
[Abstract]:With the gradual improvement of the socialist market economy system with Chinese characteristics, the national economic level is developing day by day. The real estate industry occupies an important position in the economic development of our country. Under the guidance of the national macro-control and the policy of stimulating domestic demand, the residential real estate is gradually cooling down. Commercial real estate has become the investment hot spot of real estate developers. But commercial real estate has the advantages of relatively fast appreciation of property and high profits in late operation, which is a combination of commercial and commercial. Real estate and investment attribute of the composite industry, its operation links are more complex, long development cycle, facing more risks than other types of real estate. In order to ensure that the project gets more profits to prevent the project from failure, the real estate developer should pay attention to the pre-planning link in the process of development, and establish a project for the successful profit of the project. Implement the whole plan plan, identify the expected risk in the early planning process, evaluate the risk objectively and accurately, and increase the profit opportunity for the project to reduce the loss probability. China's real estate development only 30 years, although commercial real estate investment continues to heat up, but China's commercial real estate is still in a less experienced, theoretical knowledge is not rich enough in the development of the primary stage. This paper starts with the theoretical study of commercial real estate, combining with risk theory, according to the current situation of commercial real estate in China to identify the existing risks, and study the principle of Analytic hierarchy process. The mathematical model is constructed by matlab program, and the risk is upgraded from character description to quantitative data, which makes the decision maker have accurate and scientific decision basis in the decision-making process. This paper takes a commercial real estate project in Changchun as an example, carries on the risk analysis to the project, in the analysis process unifies the expert appraisal method and the mathematics model, the appraisal result conforms to the project actual situation, therefore. In the early planning of commercial real estate, this paper can provide scientific qualitative and quantitative analysis for project risk identification and evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林建筑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F299.23;F721

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 賀丹;;不同類(lèi)型房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)特點(diǎn)比較分析[J];山西建筑;2015年09期

本文編號(hào)：1446842