本文關(guān)鍵詞： 短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) 經(jīng)常賬戶 資本賬戶 人民幣預(yù)期升值率　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)日益融入世界經(jīng)濟(jì)體系以及政府部門逐步開(kāi)放資本賬戶，通過(guò)各種渠道進(jìn)出我國(guó)的短期資本規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大。短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)普遍被認(rèn)為波動(dòng)性較強(qiáng)、流動(dòng)規(guī)模變化較大、流動(dòng)方向容易逆轉(zhuǎn)，對(duì)一國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融市場(chǎng)可能造成顯著的負(fù)面沖擊。2005年7月，貨幣當(dāng)局對(duì)人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制進(jìn)行改革，加快了人民幣升值速度。強(qiáng)烈的人民幣升值預(yù)期進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)短期國(guó)際資本流入我國(guó)。 本文將短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)通過(guò)流入途徑分為經(jīng)常賬戶短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)和資本賬戶短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)，對(duì)兩類短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行了估算，試圖通過(guò)實(shí)證模型分析人民幣升值對(duì)兩類短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響，進(jìn)而根據(jù)實(shí)證結(jié)果以及兩類賬戶的不同特點(diǎn)與管制情況提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。國(guó)家外匯管理局去年編制了1998年至2011年的中國(guó)國(guó)際收支平衡表季度表，這為本文的研究提供了季度數(shù)據(jù)，使得本文可以更準(zhǔn)確地計(jì)算兩類短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)高頻數(shù)據(jù)。本文借鑒蒙代爾-弗萊明理論模型，選擇人民幣兌美元名義匯率、人民幣預(yù)期收益率、國(guó)內(nèi)外利差、以及國(guó)內(nèi)股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格與國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格為解釋變量建立計(jì)量模型，并實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)各影響因素對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶短期資本流動(dòng)與資本賬戶短期資本流動(dòng)兩類短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明人民幣匯率預(yù)期升值率是對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)影響最大的因素，且名義匯率、人民幣匯率預(yù)期升值率率對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)影響比對(duì)資本賬戶短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響更大。全文研究結(jié)果表明人民幣兌美元名義匯率的單邊上行對(duì)我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)影響顯著，且經(jīng)常賬戶短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)受人民幣升值的影響要大于資本賬戶短期資本流動(dòng)受人民幣升值的影響。本文認(rèn)為可能的原因是我國(guó)資本賬戶仍然存在管制，部分受到資本管制阻攔的資本迂回繞道通過(guò)經(jīng)常賬戶流入我國(guó)。 本文分為四個(gè)章節(jié)。第一章是緒論，包括文章撰寫的相關(guān)研究背景以及文獻(xiàn)綜述。第二章是理論分析，詳細(xì)論述了人民幣升值對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響的各個(gè)方面。第三章是基于變量、指標(biāo)的合理選定及數(shù)據(jù)的可得性，建立短期資本流動(dòng)影響模型，，并進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，得出實(shí)證結(jié)果。第四章則是總結(jié)全文結(jié)論并提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:As China's economy is increasingly integrated into the world economic system and government departments gradually open the capital account. The scale of short-term capital in and out of China is expanding through various channels. Short-term international capital flow is generally considered to be highly volatile, the scale of flow changes greatly, and the direction of flow is easily reversed. In July 2005, the monetary authorities reformed the mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation. This has accelerated the pace of appreciation of the renminbi, which is expected to further drive short-term international capital flows into China. In this paper, short-term international capital flows are divided into current account short-term international capital flows and capital account short-term international capital flows, and two types of short-term international capital flows are estimated. This paper attempts to analyze the impact of RMB appreciation on two types of short-term international capital flows through empirical models. According to the empirical results and the different characteristics of the two types of accounts and the control situation, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange compiled the quarterly statement of China's balance of payments account from 1998 to 2011 last year. . This provides quarterly data for this study, which makes this paper more accurate to calculate two types of short-term international capital flows high frequency data. This paper draws lessons from the Mondal-Fleming theory model. Choose the nominal exchange rate of RMB to the dollar, the expected rate of return of RMB, the domestic and foreign interest rate difference, as well as the domestic stock market price and the domestic real estate market price as the explanatory variables to establish the econometric model. The empirical results show that the expected appreciation rate of RMB exchange rate is the impact of the expected appreciation rate of RMB exchange rate on the short-term capital flows of the current account and the short-term capital flows of the capital account. Flow is the most influential factor. And nominal exchange rates. The expected appreciation rate of RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on short-term international capital flows in the current account than on short-term international capital flows in the capital account. China's short-term international capital flows have a significant impact. And the short-term international capital flow of the current account is influenced by RMB appreciation more than the short-term capital flow of the capital account is influenced by RMB appreciation. This paper thinks that the possible reason is that there are still controls on the capital account in China. Some of the capital detours blocked by capital controls flow into China through the current account. This paper is divided into four chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, including the writing of the relevant research background and literature review. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis. The third chapter is based on variables, reasonable selection of indicators and availability of data to establish a short-term capital flow impact model. Chapter 4th summarizes the conclusions of the full text and puts forward the relevant policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822;F832.6;F224

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