本文關(guān)鍵詞： 對數(shù)線性模型 Monte Carlo模擬 VaR SAS 廣告　出處：《重慶大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：對數(shù)線性模型是廣義線性模型中的一個分支，同Logistic模型、Probit模型一樣，在定性數(shù)據(jù)的分析當(dāng)中發(fā)揮著重要的作用。本文系統(tǒng)講述了對數(shù)線性模型的基本原理，并且在此基礎(chǔ)上也同時綜合運(yùn)用了VaR以及Monte Carlo模擬等方法，對房地產(chǎn)廣告的類型和來訪量之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行詳細(xì)的分析，得出結(jié)論并給出合理的建議。 通過研究分析表明，本文得出以下結(jié)論：（1）來訪量會隨著月份的變化而呈規(guī)律性的變化——先增后減，在二月份達(dá)到峰值，然后在九月份達(dá)到低谷；故建議在二月份左右適當(dāng)?shù)亩嗤缎⿵V告量，在九月份左右適當(dāng)?shù)臏p少廣告的投放；（2）從全年來評估效果來看，由大到小依次為：晨報、商報、時報、搜房網(wǎng)、短信、晚報、活動、日報、搜狐網(wǎng)、其他網(wǎng)媒；（3）來訪量較小的時候，廣告對來訪量的影響比較大，，能夠帶來較大的增長；當(dāng)來訪量達(dá)到一定的程度時，廣告的影響力就會大大降低；（4）在六個廣告數(shù)量內(nèi)隨機(jī)投放，置信水平95%下的來訪量與實(shí)際差距不是太大，因此，對于廣告所能帶來的來訪量沒有必要過分擔(dān)心；（5）本文推薦選取晨報、晚報、商報、時報、短信、搜房網(wǎng)作為廣告投放的重點(diǎn)，然后隨機(jī)投放，在這些廣告投放的過程中，只需考慮公司所能承受的廣告成本即可。
[Abstract]:Logarithmic linear model is a branch of generalized linear model, just like Logistic model and probit model. It plays an important role in the analysis of qualitative data. This paper systematically describes the basic principle of logarithmic linear model. On the basis of this, we also use the methods of VaR and Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the relationship between the type of real estate advertisement and the quantity of visit in detail. Draw conclusions and give reasonable advice. The research results show that the following conclusions are drawn: 1) the number of visits will change regularly with the change of month, first increasing and then decreasing, reaching the peak on February, then reaching the low point on September; Therefore, it is suggested that the appropriate amount of advertising should be put in around February, and the appropriate amount of advertising should be reduced around September; (2) judging from the evaluation effect of the whole year, the order from big to small is: morning paper, business newspaper, times, search house net, short message, evening newspaper, activity, daily newspaper, Sohu net, other net medium; 3) when the number of visitors is small, the influence of advertising on the volume of visits is relatively large, which can bring about a greater growth; When the number of visitors reaches a certain level, the influence of advertising will be greatly reduced; 4) in the six advertisement quantity randomly, the confidence level 95% visit quantity and the actual disparity is not too big, therefore, for the advertisement can bring the visitor quantity does not need to worry too much; This article recommends choosing the morning newspaper, evening newspaper, business newspaper, times, short message, search house net as the focus of advertising, and then randomly put them in the process of these advertisements. Just consider the advertising costs the company can afford.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：O212;F299.233.42

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本文編號：1445198