本文關(guān)鍵詞：城市綜合體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究　出處：《浙江理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：現(xiàn)代都市中，人們生活和工作的節(jié)奏越來(lái)越快，對(duì)于效率的追求越來(lái)越強(qiáng)烈。城市綜合體作為一個(gè)方便、快捷、經(jīng)濟(jì)且集多種功能于一體的綜合性空間，能夠滿足都市人們高效率的生活和工作需求。城市綜合體的開(kāi)發(fā)可使城市空間布局得以改善，城市區(qū)域更具活力，城市形象得到大幅提升，同時(shí)與單一物業(yè)投資回報(bào)相比，開(kāi)發(fā)綜合體使房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)獲利更大，因此其已成為地方?jīng)Q策層和投資者競(jìng)相追逐的目標(biāo)。但我國(guó)城市綜合體項(xiàng)目積極立項(xiàng)、倉(cāng)促開(kāi)工建設(shè)、急于完成且缺乏比較完善的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系等現(xiàn)狀，導(dǎo)致開(kāi)發(fā)商面臨著建設(shè)資金鏈緊張、市場(chǎng)難以“消化”大量綜合體項(xiàng)目等問(wèn)題。本研究的目的就是通過(guò)建立新中心區(qū)的城市綜合體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，以期對(duì)現(xiàn)今國(guó)內(nèi)新中心區(qū)的城市綜合體項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)提供一定的科學(xué)指導(dǎo)，從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制的角度判別是否適合進(jìn)行城市綜合體的開(kāi)發(fā)。 本文首先回顧了城市綜合體相關(guān)理論研究和國(guó)內(nèi)外房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論研究，并對(duì)本文研究的相關(guān)概念及研究范圍進(jìn)行界定。其次，對(duì)新中心區(qū)的城市綜合體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素進(jìn)行識(shí)別，構(gòu)建城市綜合體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，運(yùn)用層次分析法確定指標(biāo)權(quán)重和模糊評(píng)判法評(píng)判風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，建立城市綜合體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)判模型。再次，以杭州龍湖·滟瀾山和寶龍城市廣場(chǎng)項(xiàng)目為例，，深入進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，通過(guò)評(píng)判數(shù)據(jù)的分析對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系的可操作性進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證。通過(guò)對(duì)兩個(gè)綜合體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，得出龍湖·滟瀾山項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處于“較低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”等級(jí)，寶龍城市廣場(chǎng)項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處于“中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”等級(jí)，這與實(shí)際情況基本相符。最后針對(duì)開(kāi)發(fā)商在進(jìn)行新中心區(qū)綜合體項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程中該如何采取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制措施提出具體的建議。 本文研究采用層次分析法與模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法相結(jié)合的方法，首次構(gòu)建了新中心區(qū)城市綜合體的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型；利用建立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型對(duì)杭州龍湖·滟瀾山和杭州寶龍城市廣場(chǎng)的開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，通過(guò)比較驗(yàn)證得出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型具有較好的可操作性和合理性，強(qiáng)調(diào)突出項(xiàng)目選址和開(kāi)發(fā)商能力及運(yùn)營(yíng)在新中心區(qū)城市綜合體項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)中的重要性。
[Abstract]:In modern cities, the pace of people's life and work is getting faster and faster, and the pursuit of efficiency is becoming more and more intense. As a convenient, fast, economical and integrated space, urban complex has a variety of functions. The development of urban complex can improve the layout of urban space, the urban area is more dynamic, and the image of the city is greatly improved. At the same time, compared with the single property investment return, the development of the complex makes real estate enterprises profit more, so it has become the local decision-making level and investors chasing the target. Rush to start construction, eager to complete and lack of a more complete system risk assessment system, such as the status quo, leading to developers facing the construction funding chain is tight. It is difficult for the market to "digest" a large number of complex projects. The purpose of this study is to establish a risk evaluation index system for urban complex projects in the new central district. It is expected to provide some scientific guidance for the development of urban complex projects in the new central district of China, and to judge whether it is suitable for the development of urban complex from the point of view of risk control. Firstly, this paper reviews the related theories of urban complex and real estate project risk management at home and abroad, and defines the related concepts and research scope of this paper. The risk factors of urban complex project in the new central district are identified, the risk evaluation index system of urban complex is constructed, and the index weight is determined by AHP and the risk is evaluated by fuzzy evaluation method. The risk evaluation model of urban complex project is established. Thirdly, the project development risk analysis is carried out based on the examples of Hangzhou Longhu, Guilanshan and Baolong City Square Project. Through the analysis of the evaluation data, the feasibility of the risk evaluation index system is verified, and the risk evaluation results of the two complex projects are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that the overall risk of Longhu 路Guilanshan project is in the "low risk" grade, and the overall risk of the Baolong City Square Project is "medium risk" grade. This is basically in line with the actual situation. Finally, the author puts forward some concrete suggestions on how to take risk control measures during the development of the new central district complex project. In this paper, the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to construct the project risk assessment model of the urban complex in the new central district for the first time. Using the established risk assessment model to study the development risk of Hangzhou Longhu 路Guilanshan and Hangzhou Baolong City Plaza, and through the comparison and verification, it is concluded that the risk assessment model has good maneuverability and rationality. Emphasis is placed on the importance of project location, developer's ability and operation in the development of urban complex in the new central district.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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1 張宇;吳t

本文編號(hào)：1417123