本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)警研究　出處：《南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的背景下，隨著企業(yè)國際化和全球化進(jìn)程的不斷加快，各大企業(yè)都處在競爭日益激烈的風(fēng)口浪尖上，一旦經(jīng)營不善就容易引發(fā)資金鏈短缺，，企業(yè)資不抵債，最終被市場的競爭機(jī)制所淘汰。所以，企業(yè)要生存發(fā)展就必須加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，而風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的重點(diǎn)就是企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)是我國的新興產(chǎn)業(yè)，也是最近幾年國家重點(diǎn)關(guān)注和調(diào)控的對象，是人們最近關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)話題之一，長周期、高投資、高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高收益是房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的固有特點(diǎn)，房地產(chǎn)的高收益性決定了它的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性，尤其是發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性越來越大。 本文選取近年來備受國家和社會公眾關(guān)注的行業(yè)——房地產(chǎn)業(yè)為研究對象，主要實(shí)證研究發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)困境的上市公司與未發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)困境的上市公司之間存在一些顯著性差異的指標(biāo)間的關(guān)系，以此來建立關(guān)于我國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)上市公司財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)警的模型，希望后來的房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)可以借鑒該預(yù)警模型，及時(shí)預(yù)知企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)狀況的變化情況。 文章大致的分析框架是這樣的：首先系統(tǒng)的介紹了研究房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的背景以及研究的價(jià)值，其次對國內(nèi)外有關(guān)財(cái)務(wù)困境的文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述研究。第三，在對財(cái)務(wù)困境及房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的概念進(jìn)行界定了的基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)證監(jiān)會公布的行業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，從122家房地產(chǎn)上市公司中選出數(shù)據(jù)齊全、資料完整且主營業(yè)務(wù)為房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)與經(jīng)營的上市公司，共70家，結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)公司的實(shí)際情況，按照ST與非ST公司1:4的比例配比（其中10年被ST的9家，11年被ST的5家）。在以往相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合房地產(chǎn)業(yè)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、高負(fù)債的特殊性，從償債、營運(yùn)、盈利、成長以及現(xiàn)金流等5個(gè)方面選取了40個(gè)指標(biāo)，建立了預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，在完成K-S檢驗(yàn)、非參數(shù)檢驗(yàn)以及相關(guān)性分析后，運(yùn)用二元Logit回歸分析模型建立房地產(chǎn)業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)困境預(yù)警的的模型，并取得較好的預(yù)測效果。 研究結(jié)果顯示：房地產(chǎn)上市公司t-1年、t-2年以及t-3年發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)困境的預(yù)測精確度分別為94.3%、90.0%以及85.7%，對正常公司的錯(cuò)判率也隨著時(shí)間向ST的臨近越來越低�？梢娫谂R近ST那一年，預(yù)測精度較好，這也比較符合實(shí)際。
[Abstract]:Under the background of global economic integration, with the internationalization and globalization, large enterprises in the increasingly fierce competition in the teeth of the storm, once mismanagement can easily lead to the shortage of capital chain, corporate insolvency, eventually be eliminated by the market competition mechanism. Therefore, we must strengthen to the survival and development of enterprises risk management, risk management is the focus of the financial risk of the enterprise. The real estate industry is a new industry in China, and in recent years the focus of attention and regulation, is one of the hot topic recently, people concern long cycle, high investment, high risk, high yield is the inherent characteristics of the real estate industry high income, real estate determines its high risk, especially the possibility of financial risk is more and more big.
This paper selects the recent national concern of the public and the industry, the real estate industry as the research object, the relationship between some significant differences among indexes between the main empirical research on financial distress of listed companies and financial distress of listed companies, in order to establish a financial distress early warning of China's real estate industry listed companies the model, hope that the real estate enterprises can use the early warning model, changes and predict the financial situation of enterprises.
The general analysis framework is this: first introduces the system of real estate enterprises in the background and research value, followed by domestic and foreign research on financial distress literature. Third, based on the definition of the concept of financial distress and the real estate industry, according to the Commission published industry standards and from the 122 listed real estate company in which complete data, data integrity and the main business of real estate development and management of listed companies, a total of 70, according to the actual situation of the Real Estate Company, according to the ST and non ST companies 1:4 ratio (of which 10 years were ST 9, 11 years was ST 5). On the basis of previous related research, combined with the high risk of the real estate industry, special, high debt from debt, operating profit, 5 growth and cash flow, choosing 40 index, set up the early warning index system in the end. After the K-S test, nonparametric test and correlation analysis, the two yuan Logit regression analysis model is applied to establish the financial distress prediction model of the real estate industry, and a good prediction effect is achieved.
The research results show that: the real estate listed companies in T-1 years, T-2 years and T-3 years of financial distress prediction accuracy were 94.3%, 90% and 85.7%, the normal company misjudged rate with time to ST near more and more low. Visible near the ST in that year, the forecast accuracy is good, it also compared with the the actual.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.233.4;F275

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