發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-07 08:21

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于FAVAR模型通貨膨脹的成因研究　出處：《廣東工業(yè)大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 通貨膨脹 成因分析 FAVAR模型 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理

【摘要】：通貨膨脹是我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理中的重要課題之一。關(guān)于通貨膨脹的研究一直是學(xué)術(shù)界的熱點(diǎn),沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)主題能夠像通貨膨脹一樣被反復(fù)研究討論�？v觀國(guó)內(nèi)外通貨膨脹的研究成果,大多是從貨幣、需求、成本、輸入性這幾個(gè)影響因素出發(fā),而且往往根據(jù)不同研究需求選取不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),并沒(méi)有一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的指標(biāo)劃分標(biāo)準(zhǔn),因此得出的結(jié)論也會(huì)不同,另一方面我國(guó)通貨膨脹發(fā)生原因是錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的,并不是單一某個(gè)因素層面影響而成的。近幾年來(lái)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)、資本市場(chǎng)、對(duì)外貿(mào)易活動(dòng)等非�；钴S,對(duì)通貨膨脹的影響也逐漸引起學(xué)者們的高度注意。因此選用貨幣、經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平、房地產(chǎn)、資本市場(chǎng)和國(guó)際需求等層面來(lái)深入考察長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)通貨膨脹的動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)律及通貨膨脹的成因,更符合現(xiàn)下的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況,更有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,更能針對(duì)性地提出我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理的政策建議。在研究方法的選用上,大多數(shù)學(xué)者選擇VAR或SVAR作為實(shí)證研究方法,本文在總結(jié)VAR和SVAR模型的局限性,以及分析了FAVAR模型的合理性與必要性的基礎(chǔ)上,選用FAVAR(因子向量自回歸)模型作為本文的研究方法,充分利用我國(guó)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),將直接或間接影響通貨膨脹變動(dòng)的眾多因素同時(shí)納入到FAVAR模型的分析框架中,提煉出反映通貨膨脹波動(dòng)本質(zhì)的綜合因子,以期用更全的視角分析各方面對(duì)我國(guó)通貨膨脹的影響�；跀�(shù)據(jù)的可獲得性,最終選用了44個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo),及其2000年1月至2014年12月共168期數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)通貨膨脹的成因進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)和分析。主要得到以下研究結(jié)果：第一,在因子分析過(guò)程中,貨幣指標(biāo)并沒(méi)有形成一個(gè)統(tǒng)一的貨幣影響力量,而是分散到各個(gè)因子組里,這說(shuō)明我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)發(fā)展到由粗向細(xì)轉(zhuǎn)換的階段,貨幣政策的作用也更加細(xì)化,因此在宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理上,需要針對(duì)不同領(lǐng)域采用不同的貨幣調(diào)控政策。第二,2000年至2014年期間,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)、國(guó)際需求、信貸規(guī)模、經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平和資本市場(chǎng)均是我國(guó)通貨膨脹的成因。其中房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)、國(guó)際需求、信貸規(guī)模和資本市場(chǎng)對(duì)通貨膨脹有正向拉動(dòng)作用,而經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平在一定程度上可以抑制通貨膨脹發(fā)生。第三,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)因子、國(guó)際需求因子、信貸規(guī)模因子、經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)水平因子、資本市場(chǎng)因子與通貨膨脹因子均有長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系,且存在短期動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。上述分析可以揭示我國(guó)通貨膨脹的原因,找出影響通貨膨脹因素的影響途徑和影響模式。從而有助于針對(duì)性進(jìn)行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)管理政策設(shè)計(jì),解決通貨膨脹對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不利影響。本文最后基于實(shí)證分析結(jié)論,提出了相應(yīng)的宏觀管理建議。
[Abstract]:Inflation is one of the important topics in macroeconomic management in China. The research on inflation has been a hot topic in academic circles, there is no a theme can like inflation has been repeatedly discussed. The research achievements of domestic and foreign inflation, mostly from currency, demand, cost, the influence factors of the input. And often according to different research needs select different economic indicators, there is no unified index classification standard, so the conclusion will be different, on the other hand the reason of China's inflation is perplexing, and not a single level and influence factors. The real estate market in China in recent years capital market, foreign trade activities are very active, the impact on inflation has gradually attracted high attention of scholars. Therefore the selection of monetary, economic activity level, real estate, To further examine the dynamic regularity and causes of inflation inflation since the long-term capital market and international demand levels, more in line with the current economic situation, more practical, more can put forward our country's macroeconomic management policy recommendations. In the selection of research methods, most scholars choose VAR or SVAR as the empirical research method in this paper, summing up the limitation of VAR and SVAR model, and analyses the rationality and necessity of the FAVAR model, using FAVAR (factor vector autoregression) model as the research methods, make full use of macroeconomic indicators in our country, many factors will directly or indirectly affect the inflation at the same time into analysis the framework of FAVAR model, extract the factor inflation volatility reflects the comprehensive nature, in order to use more comprehensive perspective analysis of various aspects of China's inflation Impact. The availability of data based on the final selection of the 44 economic indicators, and January 2000 to December 2014 a total of 168 data were used to verify and analyze the causes of inflation. The main results are as follows: first, the factor analysis in the process of monetary index has not formed a unified currency impact force, but distributed to each factor group, indicating that China's economy has developed to the stage of conversion by thick to fine, the role of monetary policy is more refined, so in macroeconomic management, the need for different areas using different monetary policy. In second, during the period from 2000 to 2014, the real estate market fluctuations, international demand. The credit scale, the level of economic activity and the capital market are the causes of inflation in China. The fluctuation of the real estate market, international demand, credit scale and capital market is on inflation To pull, and the level of economic activity in a certain extent can restrain inflation. Third, the real estate market factor, international demand factor, credit scale factor, the level of economic activity factor, have long-term equilibrium relationship between capital market factors and inflation factors, and short-term dynamic relationship. The analysis can reveal the inflation in China. To find out the influence factors of inflation path and effect model. Which helps to carry out macroeconomic management policy design, solve the adverse effects of inflation on economic development. Finally, based on the sound of the conclusions of empirical analysis, puts forward the macro management suggestions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5

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