本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與人民幣匯率聯(lián)動(dòng)效應(yīng)研究　出處：《安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格主要受到房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的消費(fèi)者、投資者、房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商、商業(yè)銀行、地方政府和中央政府等各方面的影響,而人民幣匯率與房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格又是決定國(guó)外房地產(chǎn)投資者投資行為選擇的主要因素。國(guó)外投資者及由其引致的國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)投資者因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)房?jī)r(jià)和人民幣匯率的預(yù)期升值,而大量投資資本進(jìn)入國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),在短期房地產(chǎn)供給一定的情況下,國(guó)內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格將大幅度上漲,這又會(huì)吸引大量資本流入房市。此外,大量國(guó)際資本流入迫使人民幣存在巨大的升值壓力。在房?jī)r(jià)及匯率雙重預(yù)期升值的情況下,使得房?jī)r(jià)和人民幣匯率之間存在一種相互推高的影響關(guān)系�？墒�,當(dāng)房?jī)r(jià)及人民幣匯率升高到一定程度的時(shí)候,政府政策的改變以及市場(chǎng)預(yù)期的變化又會(huì)使得房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的國(guó)內(nèi)外投資者大量逃離,造成房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)及資本市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng),從而影響到金融市場(chǎng)甚至是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 本文研究?jī)?nèi)容主要是通過對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)餓梳理找出本文的研究切入點(diǎn),并在此基礎(chǔ)上分析房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)各類主體對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的機(jī)理,并構(gòu)建相關(guān)函數(shù)模型,最終在此基礎(chǔ)上構(gòu)建房?jī)r(jià)與匯率的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系模型。在實(shí)證部分運(yùn)用VAR對(duì)理論模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示房?jī)r(jià)與人民幣匯率間存在顯著的影響關(guān)系,并提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Real estate prices are mainly affected by the real estate market, consumers, investors, real estate developers, commercial banks, local governments and the central government influence in all aspects, and the RMB exchange rate and real estate price is the main factor to decide the choice of foreign investors in real estate investment. Foreign investors and the cause of the domestic real estate investors because of domestic prices and the RMB exchange rate is expected to rise, while a large number of investment capital into the domestic real estate market in the short term, the supply of real estate under certain circumstances, the domestic real estate prices will greatly rise, it will attract large inflows of capital market. In addition, a large number of international capital inflows forcing the renminbi there is a huge pressure of appreciation. In house prices and the appreciation of the exchange rate is expected to double, so that there is a mutual influence of pushing up the relationship between house prices and the RMB exchange rate. However, when the real The price and the RMB exchange rate increased to a certain extent, change government policies and changes in market expectations will make the real estate market on the domestic and foreign investors fled, resulting in the real estate market and capital market volatility, which affects the financial market and even the healthy and stable development of social economy.
The main content of this paper is based on the existing literature research to find out the starting point of this article combs the hungry, the mechanism of impact on real estate prices on the real estate market and on the basis of various subjects, and constructs the related function model, construct the dynamic relationship between prices and the exchange rate on the basis of the above model. In the empirical part of the use of VAR theory the empirical test, test results showed that there was significant relationship between house prices and the RMB exchange rate, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.6

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