本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的計(jì)量研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

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摘要

我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的計(jì)量研究

1998年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)市場(chǎng)化以來，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)得到了迅猛發(fā)展，為帶動(dòng)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、 拉動(dòng)整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及改善人民生活質(zhì)量做出了不可替代的貢獻(xiàn)，成為了我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā) 展中重要的基礎(chǔ)性產(chǎn)業(yè)。然而，，房地產(chǎn)關(guān)系國(guó)計(jì)民生，其價(jià)格水平的高低不但決定著房地產(chǎn) 行業(yè)自身能否健康發(fā)展，同時(shí)對(duì)關(guān)聯(lián)行業(yè)的發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、居民生活質(zhì)量、國(guó)家金融安全 等方面產(chǎn)生影響，特別是對(duì)社會(huì)公平與穩(wěn)定將產(chǎn)生巨大影響。值得注意的是，近年來部分地 區(qū)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過其他省份，各地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格存在明顯的差異。房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的區(qū) 域差異不僅表明了不同地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展程度的差異，更反映了不同地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平 和人民生活質(zhì)量，而過度的差距將極有可能進(jìn)一步引發(fā)全社會(huì)的公平和穩(wěn)定。因此，深入剖 析房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異產(chǎn)生的根源，對(duì)于客觀準(zhǔn)確認(rèn)識(shí)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展的區(qū)域不平衡是至關(guān) 重要的，對(duì)于我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)健康有序的發(fā)展具有現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。

基于上述，本文以房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀為背景，以我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格為研究對(duì)象，在 總結(jié)現(xiàn)有經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格演變的地區(qū)性差異，結(jié)合我國(guó)房地 產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)狀況運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法甄別我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的影響因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上，構(gòu)建 我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平指標(biāo)體系，對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行重新劃分，以不同區(qū)域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì) 象，運(yùn)用微觀計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的地區(qū)性差異特征、階段變化特征和波 動(dòng)特征及其區(qū)域差異進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。本文的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)論如下：

首先，從整體上分析我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格演變的區(qū)域性差異。我國(guó) 房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化運(yùn)行以來，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在投資和需求等多方面取得了飛速發(fā)展，但是房地產(chǎn)價(jià) 格呈現(xiàn)出極大的區(qū)域差異性，東部地區(qū)的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格明顯高于中西部地區(qū)，特別是北京和上 海等地的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格明顯高于其他省份，東中西各區(qū)域內(nèi)部房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格也存在明顯的差異 性。

其次，甄別影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的因素。在對(duì)收入水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、土地供給水平、 人口數(shù)量、信貸規(guī)模水平和城市規(guī)模對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生區(qū)域差異性影響的理論分析基礎(chǔ)上， 從我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)實(shí)出發(fā)，運(yùn)用逐步面板回歸方法對(duì)影響我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格，產(chǎn)生區(qū)域 差異的因素進(jìn)行了細(xì)致的判斷和識(shí)別。計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)分析結(jié)果表明，對(duì)于現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)的房地產(chǎn)市 場(chǎng)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r而言，收入水平、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、土地供給水平和信貸規(guī)模水平對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的區(qū)域 差異產(chǎn)生了顯著的影響，而人口數(shù)量和城市規(guī)模并未對(duì)現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異產(chǎn)生 顯著影響。II

再次，依據(jù)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平不同，按照甄別出的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異影響因素， 建立指標(biāo)體系進(jìn)行聚類分析，以不同區(qū)域作為研究對(duì)象，采用1999年至2010年房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格 及甄別變量的季度數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用空間面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，研究了各區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的區(qū)域性特征及 影響因素對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的影響程度。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格之間存在一定的空 間聯(lián)動(dòng)性，收入水平對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)處于發(fā)展期的地區(qū)影響程度高于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)處于高速成長(zhǎng) 期的區(qū)域；經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平高的區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格容易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)的影響，土地供給對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì) 發(fā)達(dá)區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響不顯著，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平欠發(fā)達(dá)區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)信貸規(guī)模的依賴程 度高。因此，為各地區(qū)有針對(duì)性地進(jìn)行房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的宏觀調(diào)控提供了一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)依據(jù)，由于 不同區(qū)域內(nèi)影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的主要原因不同以及相關(guān)因素對(duì)不同區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響程 度存在較大差異，因此各級(jí)地方政府及相關(guān)部門在制定相關(guān)的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控政策時(shí)應(yīng)充分 考慮因地制宜的原則。

然后，應(yīng)用結(jié)構(gòu)變化理論對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，找到房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格結(jié)構(gòu)變化點(diǎn)，并 以此為基礎(chǔ)，將1999年至2010年我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行階段劃分，并運(yùn)用基于結(jié)構(gòu)變化的面

板數(shù)據(jù)模型深入揭示我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的階段性特征及影響因素對(duì)各區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià) 格影響的動(dòng)態(tài)性和階段性特征。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的結(jié)構(gòu)變化時(shí)點(diǎn)2005年1季 度和2008年4季度，據(jù)此將我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)劃分為三個(gè)階段，這三個(gè)階段也正是我國(guó)房地 產(chǎn)價(jià)格從適度增長(zhǎng)到快速增長(zhǎng)再到適度增長(zhǎng)的轉(zhuǎn)變，且在三個(gè)階段區(qū)域間房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格差異越 來越明顯。收入水平在三個(gè)時(shí)期對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平較低的區(qū)域影響程度最大；房地產(chǎn) 發(fā)展水平高的區(qū)域始終對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)最為敏感；土地供給在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化初期對(duì)不同地區(qū)均產(chǎn) 生影響，但是伴隨著市場(chǎng)化的不斷深入，土地供給對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平高的區(qū)域不產(chǎn)生影 響；在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)快速發(fā)展階段，信貸規(guī)模對(duì)于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平高的區(qū)域作用不顯著。 因此，在制定房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策時(shí)，要充分考慮各地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的動(dòng)態(tài)性和階段性變化特征， 注意房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策的時(shí)效性。

最后，以不同區(qū)域?yàn)檠芯繉?duì)象，應(yīng)用面板數(shù)據(jù)協(xié)整及基于面板誤差修正模型的Granger

因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)等經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量分析方法實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與收入波動(dòng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)、土地 供給波動(dòng)及信貸規(guī)模波動(dòng)之間的長(zhǎng)短期作用特征。實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng) 行區(qū)域差異顯著。無論是長(zhǎng)期均衡還是短期波動(dòng)，收入的波動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動(dòng)均能引起各個(gè)區(qū) 域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)，信貸規(guī)模只在長(zhǎng)期上引起房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)，土地供給在短期上引起 房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)在長(zhǎng)期均衡和短期波動(dòng)狀況下均能夠引起不同區(qū)域信 貸規(guī)模的波動(dòng)，在長(zhǎng)期上，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)在長(zhǎng)期上對(duì)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展水平低的區(qū)域收入 水平不產(chǎn)生影響，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)不同區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)和土地供給波動(dòng)均不產(chǎn)生影響，在 短期上，房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)不會(huì)影響房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展水平居中的經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)，只能引起該區(qū)域的土 地供給波動(dòng)。因此，在制定房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策時(shí)，需要結(jié)合各地房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)真實(shí)的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)，III

制定切實(shí)有效地房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控政策。

本文得到的研究結(jié)論有助于更加清晰地理解在我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)化進(jìn)程中我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市

場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的特征，甄別不同影響因素及影響程度的差異。這些結(jié)論為保證我國(guó)房地產(chǎn) 市場(chǎng)健康有序的發(fā)展，因地制宜地制定我國(guó)各區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格調(diào)控政策，保持各地區(qū)房地產(chǎn) 市場(chǎng)均衡發(fā)展，有一定的借鑒意義。

關(guān)鍵詞：

房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格，區(qū)域差異，結(jié)構(gòu)變化，空間相關(guān)性V

Abstract

Measurement Study of Regional Differences of China's

Real Estate Market Prices

Since 1998,China’s real estate began the market-oriented,the real estate market has been rapid development,and made an irreplaceable contribution to the development of related industries, pulling the entire national economic growth and improving people's quality of life,to become an important basis industry in China’s national economic development.However,the real estate is closely related to people’s livehood,the price level of the real estate not only determines the health development of the real estate industry itself but also impact on the development of related industries,economic development,quality of life of residents,the country's financial security,

especially will have an enormous impact on social equity and stability.It is noteworthy that recent years the real estate price in some areas rose far more than other places.there are significant

differences in regional real estate prices.Regional differences in real estate prices not only shows that the difference of the real estate market in level of development in different regions,but also reflects the different parts of the level of economic development and people's quality of life,and excessive gap would most likely affect the fair and stable of the whole society.Therefore,it has

practical significance that the depth analysis of the root causes of regional differences in real estate prices,in order to objective and accurate understanding of the real estate market development, regional imbalances is crucial for the healthy and orderly development of China's real estate market.

Based on the above,this paper takes the real estate market development status as the

background and the China’real estate market prices as the object of study.Base on the research result that exists nowdays,it analyzes the regional differences of China’s real estate market price.Combining with China's real estate market conditions,this paper uses the measurement methods to indentify the regional difference influencing factors of the China's real estate market prices.On this basis,building the index system of China’s real estate market to redivision the China’s real estate market,it uses micro-econometric methods to empirical test the regional,the phase variation and volatility characteristics of China’s real estate market.the main contents and conlusions of this parper are as follows:

First of all,this paper analysis the current development of China’s real estate market and the

regional differences in evolution of real estate prices.Since the market-orient of China's real estate market,China’s real market has rapid development in investment and demand aspects,however the real estate prices shows significant regional differences.The real estate prices in the eastern part are

obviously higher than the real estate price in central and westen regions,especially the real estate prices in Beijing and the Shanghai are significantly higher than other provinces.there are obviously

differences in the estate,central and westen regions real estate prices.

Secondly,it is important to screen the factors affect the regional differences of real estateVI prices.First of all,we theoretical analyze the income levels,economic fluctuations,the level of land supply,the size of population,the level of credit scal and the urban scale.Based on the

theoretical anaylsis,this paper used the stepwise regression techniques to analyze the factors of affecting the real estate prices,resulting regional differences according to the reality of China’s real estate marker.it carefully judges and recongnize the influencing factors of the regional difference in

real estate markets.The econometric analysis showed that at this stage in China's real estate market conditions,income levels,economic fluctuations,the level of land supply and credit scale level have a significant impact on the on the regional differences in real estate prices.The size of

population and urban size have no significant impact on the regional differences of China’s real estate price at this stage.

Thirdly,According to the different level of development state of China real estate market,

based on the screened real estate different influencing factors,using the cluster analysis to divide into different regions.Based on the divided regions,the application of spatial panel data model from 1999 to 2010 examined the regional differences characteristics and empirically tested the impact of various factors on the regional differences of real estate prices.The empirical results indicate there are certain space linkages between real estate prices.The income level of the developing real estate market has higher impact than the high-growth markets.The real estate prices of region with a high level economic development are easily affected by economic fluctuation.The land supply has no significant effect to the real estate prices of economically

developed regions.The real estate prices of economic less-development regional has higher degree

of dependence on the credit scal.Therefore,the empirical results provide a realistic basis to the macro-control of the regions real estate market.The main reason of affecting real estate prices in different regions are different as well as there are big difference that realted factors have different influence degree,so the local government and relevant departments should take full account of the local real estate market conditions to make real estate market regulation policy.

Fourly,we use the application of structural change theory to determine the structural changes

point of the real estate price,based on the structural changes point of the real estate price the paper determined the real estate market development phasing from 1999 to 2010.Then applying the panel

data model based on structural changes to profoundly reveal the income levels,fluctuations in the economy situation,the level of land supply and the credit scale influenced the regional real estate prices to from dynamic and phase characteristics.The conclusion is as follows:the real esate prices has two structural points,2005Q1and 2008Q4.According to China’s real estate market is divied into

three stages,the three stages is also China’s real estate prices from moderate growth shift to rapid growth then to moderate growth,and the difference of real estate prices in the three stages become increasingly evident.Income levels in the three periods has mostly impacted on the low level real estate market.High level of real estate development area has always been the most sensitive to economic fluctuations.Land supply influences the real estate market prices in the early stage,but along with the deepening of market-oriented,land supply has no influence to the high level

development real estate market.in the rapid development stage of real esatate market,the credit size

has no significan influence in the high level real esteat market.Therefore,the local government andVII

relevant departments should take full account of the dynamics and phase change characteristics of the real estate prices,paying attention to the timeliness of real estate control policy.

Finally,the different regions as the research object,the application of panel data cointegration

and Granger causality test based on the panel error correction model econometric analysis method of this paper examines the real estate price fluctuations and fluctuations in income,economic fluctuations,fluctuations in the supply of land and the size of creditbetween short-and long-term role in the volatility characteristics.The empirical results show that:significant regional differences of China's real estate price fluctuations in line.Whether it is the long-run equilibrium,short-term fluctuations,income fluctuations and economic fluctuations can be caused by various regional real estate price fluctuations,the size of credit only in the real estate price fluctuations on the long-term land supply in the real estate price fluctuations on the short-term;the volatility of real estate prices in the long-run equilibrium and short-term fluctuations in conditions can cause fluctuations in

different regions of the size of credit,in the long term,real estate price fluctuations in the long term real estate market in level of development in regions with low income levels have an impact not impact on economic fluctuations and fluctuations in the supply of land,real estate price

fluctuations in different regions,in the short term,real estate price fluctuations will not affect the real estate development in the middle levels of economic fluctuations,and can only be caused by fluctuations in the supply of land in the region.Therefore,in the development of real estate control policy requires a combination of real running status of the real estate market around the

development of effective real estate control policy.

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格區(qū)域差異的計(jì)量研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。