【摘要】：企業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的外部不經(jīng)濟(jì)性使得企業(yè)盲目追求經(jīng)濟(jì)效益，疏忽環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，導(dǎo)致環(huán)境污染事故的發(fā)生。利用環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)政策解決環(huán)境污染事故糾紛已成為事故預(yù)防和損害賠付的重要手段。企業(yè)的投保積極性對(duì)該政策的實(shí)施效果有著直接的決定性作用，而企業(yè)的投保積極性可以體現(xiàn)為企業(yè)在環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)中的決策行為。根據(jù)最大效用原理，在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和不確定條件下，企業(yè)以獲得最大期望效用值做為決策行為準(zhǔn)則。 本文運(yùn)用復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)理論分析了環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的復(fù)雜性，采用基于主體的建模仿真方法（agent-based modeling and simulation，下文簡(jiǎn)稱ABMS），選取了政府對(duì)企業(yè)發(fā)生環(huán)境污染事故的罰款力度、保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率和企業(yè)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估服務(wù)水平以及周邊企業(yè)的輻射效應(yīng)等四個(gè)指標(biāo)，模擬了環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)中企業(yè)決策行為在外部環(huán)境影響因素作用下的動(dòng)態(tài)變化。得到主要結(jié)論，如下： （1）政府對(duì)企業(yè)發(fā)生環(huán)境污染事故的罰款力度是影響企業(yè)決策行為的因素之一。 具體表現(xiàn)為：政府對(duì)企業(yè)發(fā)生環(huán)境污染事故的罰款力度越大，進(jìn)行環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)決策的企業(yè)越少，而選擇加強(qiáng)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施的企業(yè)越多；在政府的罰款金額為3000萬元時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的參保率約為罰款金額為300萬元時(shí)的三分之一，有將近90%的企業(yè)選擇了加強(qiáng)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施。 （2）保險(xiǎn)公司的保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率水平是影響企業(yè)決策行為的因素之一。 具體表現(xiàn)為：在2.5%的初始費(fèi)率基礎(chǔ)上，提高保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率至3%時(shí)，，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)參保率約為10%，比初始狀態(tài)時(shí)減少了20%；提高保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率至3.5%時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)參保率約為2.3%，不到初始狀態(tài)時(shí)的十分之一；下調(diào)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率至2%時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)參保率比初始狀態(tài)時(shí)增加了一倍，約為60%；當(dāng)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率下調(diào)至1.5%時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)參保率約為80%；當(dāng)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率下調(diào)至1%時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的參保率將近90%；當(dāng)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率下調(diào)至0.5%時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)接近飽和，參保率將近97%，比初始狀態(tài)時(shí)增加了3倍多。 （3）保險(xiǎn)公司的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估服務(wù)水平是影響企業(yè)決策行為的因素之一。 具體表現(xiàn)在兩方面：一是降低了企業(yè)發(fā)生環(huán)境污染事故的概率，二是減少了企業(yè)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的成本。企業(yè)發(fā)生環(huán)境污染事故的概率從0.0035次/年逐步降至0.00035次/年，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的參保率呈直線上升的趨勢(shì)；企業(yè)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制成本從1.5~10萬元逐步減少至0.15~1萬元時(shí)，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的參保率曲線呈對(duì)數(shù)曲線上升的趨勢(shì)。 （4）周邊企業(yè)的輻射效應(yīng)是影響企業(yè)決策行為的因素之一。 具體表現(xiàn)為：隨著時(shí)間的推移，在企業(yè)間輻射效應(yīng)作用之下，環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的參保率逐年遞增，第一年達(dá)到52%，將近初始狀態(tài)時(shí)的兩倍，第二年達(dá)到82.3%，直到第七年市場(chǎng)達(dá)到飽和，參保率為100%。 （5）在外部因素的綜合作用下，即對(duì)參保企業(yè)實(shí)行以環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)為基礎(chǔ)的差別費(fèi)率，同時(shí)提高保險(xiǎn)公司為企業(yè)提供的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估服務(wù)水平，能夠提高企業(yè)投保積極性，拉動(dòng)環(huán)境污染責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)需求，并降低區(qū)域內(nèi)企業(yè)總體的環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制成本。
[Abstract]:The external uneconomical efficiency of the enterprise's production activities makes the enterprise blindly pursue the economic benefit and neglect the environmental risk management, leading to the occurrence of environmental pollution accident. The environmental pollution liability insurance policy to solve the environmental pollution accident dispute has become an important means of accident prevention and damage compensation. The enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance has a direct and decisive effect on the effect of the policy, and the enthusiasm of the enterprise's insurance can be reflected in the decision-making behavior of the enterprise in the market of environmental pollution liability insurance. According to the principle of maximum utility, under the condition of risk and uncertainty, the enterprise obtains the maximum expected utility value as the decision-making code of conduct. In this paper, the complex system theory is used to analyze the complexity of the environmental pollution liability insurance market, and based on the agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS), the fine force of the government to the environmental pollution accident of the enterprise is selected. The four indexes such as the insurance rate of the insurance company, the service level of the enterprise's environmental risk assessment and the radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises are simulated, and the dynamic change of the enterprise decision-making behavior under the influence of the external environment is simulated. To obtain the main conclusions, such as Under the following circumstances: (1) The government's fine to the enterprise's environmental pollution accident is the cause of the decision-making of the enterprise One of the elements is: the greater the government's fine to the enterprise environment pollution accident, the less the enterprise that carries out the environmental pollution liability insurance decision, and the more enterprises that choose to strengthen the environmental risk management measures; the fine of the government is 30 When the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about one-third of the fine amount, nearly 90% of the enterprises have chosen to strengthen the environment wind. risk management measures. (2) Insurance rate level of insurance company is the influence of enterprise decision-making One of the factors of the behavior is: on the basis of the initial rate of 2.5%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 10% when the insurance rate is increased to 3%,20% less than in the initial state, and when the insurance rate is increased to 3.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The enrollment rate is about 2.3%, less than one-tenth of the initial state, and when the rate of insurance is down to 2%, the rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is doubled in the initial state, about 60%, and when the insurance rate is down to 1.5%, the environmental pollution liability insurance market The coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is about 80%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 1%, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is nearly 90%; when the insurance rate is reduced to 0.5%, the market of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is close to the saturation, and the enrollment rate is nearly 97%, which is lower than the initial 3 times increase in the status of the insurance company. (3) The service level of the environmental risk assessment of the insurance company is affected One of the factors of the enterprise decision-making behavior is to reduce the probability of environmental pollution accident in the enterprise, and the second is to reduce the risk. The cost of enterprise environmental risk management is reduced. The probability of enterprise environmental pollution accident is reduced from 0.0035 times/ year to 0.00035 times/ year, and the coverage rate of environmental pollution liability insurance market is in a straight line. The cost of enterprise's environmental risk control is from 1.5 to 100,000 yuan. The coverage of the environmental pollution liability insurance market when the step is reduced to 0.15 to 10,000 yuan The trend of the rising of the logarithmic curve of the rate curve. (4) The radiation effect of the surrounding enterprises It should be one of the factors that affect the decision-making behavior of the enterprise, which is as follows: with the lapse of time, under the effect of the inter-enterprise radiation effect, the coverage rate of the environmental pollution liability insurance market is increasing year by year, reaching 52% in the first year, twice the initial state, and the second year 82.3% up to In the seven-year market, the market is saturated and the enrollment rate is 100%. (5) Under the comprehensive effect of external factors, the difference rate based on the environmental risk level is applied to the insured enterprise, and the service level of the environmental risk assessment provided by the insurance company for the enterprise can be improved, and the enterprise can be improved The enthusiasm of insurance insurance and the demand of environmental pollution liability insurance are pulled.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州科技學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F842.69;X322

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