我國保險業(yè)發(fā)展的影響因素及區(qū)域差異的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-23 18:41
【摘要】：改革開放以來，我國保險業(yè)一直保持強勁的發(fā)展勢頭，是國民經(jīng)濟發(fā)展最快的行業(yè)之一，已經(jīng)成為社會主義市場經(jīng)濟不可或缺的重要組成部分，我國保險市場也成為全球最具活力的保險市場之一。根據(jù)國際經(jīng)驗，保險業(yè)快速發(fā)展時期也是問題集中暴露的時期，現(xiàn)階段，我國保險業(yè)有效需求不足，缺乏服務創(chuàng)新和高素質(zhì)人才，區(qū)域發(fā)展失衡的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾也愈來愈突出。2011年，國際國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟金融環(huán)境復雜，貨幣市場和資本市場波動較大，債市供求失衡，收益難以提升，股指跌幅位居全球首位，對投資收益造成嚴重影響，總體來看，無論國外市場還是國內(nèi)市場，保險資金運用的壓力和風險都在加大，監(jiān)管部門也面臨新的問題和挑戰(zhàn)。① 本文在參閱了大量有關(guān)保險業(yè)發(fā)展的文獻的基礎(chǔ)上，從理論上闡述了我國保險業(yè)發(fā)展的非經(jīng)濟影響因素，并選取2002—2011年全國30個省市的面板數(shù)據(jù)，，采用固定效應模型對GDP、城鄉(xiāng)居民存款儲蓄年底余額、人均可支配收入與總保費收入的關(guān)系進行回歸分析，結(jié)果表明：人均可支配收入、城鄉(xiāng)居民存款儲蓄余額、GDP均和總保費收入存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系，且人均可支配收入對總保費收入的貢獻度最大，城鄉(xiāng)居民儲蓄存款年底余額次之，GDP對保費收入的貢獻度最小。然后從保險業(yè)的發(fā)展規(guī)模、保險業(yè)的發(fā)展程度和保險業(yè)的發(fā)展速度三方面比較東中西三大區(qū)域的保險業(yè)發(fā)展情況，選取2011年全國30個省市的8項指標構(gòu)建評價體系，運用SPSS軟件進行主成分分析和聚類分析，根據(jù)保險業(yè)發(fā)展水平的高低把30個省市劃分為4類，結(jié)果表明：影響保險業(yè)發(fā)展水平的主要因素是其動力因子；保險業(yè)發(fā)展水平的區(qū)域差異明顯，整體表現(xiàn)為東部發(fā)達、中西部落后。在理論分析和實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上提出促進我國保險業(yè)全面協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的對策建議。從保險業(yè)自身發(fā)展看，應加快信息化建設，實施人才興業(yè)戰(zhàn)略，完善再保險服務體系等。從區(qū)域視角看，東部地區(qū)應憑借資金優(yōu)勢積極培育核心技術(shù)，推動產(chǎn)品服務創(chuàng)新；中西部應加快經(jīng)濟發(fā)展，積極開發(fā)特色險種使其潛在的保險資源優(yōu)勢轉(zhuǎn)化為現(xiàn)實的競爭優(yōu)勢；此外，區(qū)域保險一體化是區(qū)域經(jīng)濟一體化對保險業(yè)發(fā)展的新要求。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's insurance industry has maintained a strong momentum of development, is one of the fastest growing industries of the national economy, and has become an indispensable and important part of the socialist market economy. China's insurance market has also become one of the most dynamic insurance markets in the world. According to international experience, the period of rapid development of insurance industry is also a period of concentrated exposure of problems. At the present stage, China's insurance industry is short of effective demand, lacking of service innovation and high-quality talents. The structural contradiction of regional development imbalance is becoming more and more prominent. In 2011, the international and domestic economic and financial environment was complex, the money market and capital market fluctuated greatly, the supply and demand of the bond market was out of balance, the income was difficult to improve, and the stock index fell first in the world. It has a serious impact on investment returns. In general, whether in the foreign or domestic markets, the pressure and risks in the use of insurance funds are increasing. Regulators are also facing new problems and challenges. 1 based on a large number of documents on the development of the insurance industry, this paper theoretically expounds the non-economic factors affecting the development of the insurance industry in China. The panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are selected, and the fixed effect model is used to analyze the relationship between the balance of deposit savings at the end of the year, the per capita disposable income and the total premium income of urban and rural residents in GDP,. The results show that per capita disposable income, savings balance of urban and rural residents, GDP are positively correlated with total premium income, and the contribution of per capita disposable income to total premium income is the largest, followed by the balance of urban and rural residents' savings deposits at the end of the year. The contribution of GDP to premium income is the least. Then compare the development of insurance industry between East, West and West from three aspects: the scale of insurance industry, the degree of insurance industry development and the development speed of insurance industry, and select 8 indexes of 30 provinces and cities in 2011 to build an evaluation system. The principal component analysis and cluster analysis of SPSS software are used to divide 30 provinces and cities into 4 categories according to the level of insurance industry development. The results show that the main factor affecting the development level of insurance industry is its dynamic factor; The regional difference of insurance industry development level is obvious, the whole performance is eastern developed, central and western backwardness. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the overall coordinated and sustainable development of China's insurance industry. From the point of view of the development of insurance industry, we should speed up the construction of information, implement the strategy of starting up business with talents, and perfect the service system of reinsurance. From the regional point of view, the eastern region should actively cultivate the core technology and promote the innovation of products and services by virtue of its capital advantage, and the central and western regions should speed up economic development and actively develop characteristic insurance resources so that their potential insurance resource advantages can be transformed into realistic competitive advantages. In addition, regional insurance integration is the new requirement of regional economic integration to the development of insurance industry.
【學位授予單位】：安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.3
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's insurance industry has maintained a strong momentum of development, is one of the fastest growing industries of the national economy, and has become an indispensable and important part of the socialist market economy. China's insurance market has also become one of the most dynamic insurance markets in the world. According to international experience, the period of rapid development of insurance industry is also a period of concentrated exposure of problems. At the present stage, China's insurance industry is short of effective demand, lacking of service innovation and high-quality talents. The structural contradiction of regional development imbalance is becoming more and more prominent. In 2011, the international and domestic economic and financial environment was complex, the money market and capital market fluctuated greatly, the supply and demand of the bond market was out of balance, the income was difficult to improve, and the stock index fell first in the world. It has a serious impact on investment returns. In general, whether in the foreign or domestic markets, the pressure and risks in the use of insurance funds are increasing. Regulators are also facing new problems and challenges. 1 based on a large number of documents on the development of the insurance industry, this paper theoretically expounds the non-economic factors affecting the development of the insurance industry in China. The panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2002 to 2011 are selected, and the fixed effect model is used to analyze the relationship between the balance of deposit savings at the end of the year, the per capita disposable income and the total premium income of urban and rural residents in GDP,. The results show that per capita disposable income, savings balance of urban and rural residents, GDP are positively correlated with total premium income, and the contribution of per capita disposable income to total premium income is the largest, followed by the balance of urban and rural residents' savings deposits at the end of the year. The contribution of GDP to premium income is the least. Then compare the development of insurance industry between East, West and West from three aspects: the scale of insurance industry, the degree of insurance industry development and the development speed of insurance industry, and select 8 indexes of 30 provinces and cities in 2011 to build an evaluation system. The principal component analysis and cluster analysis of SPSS software are used to divide 30 provinces and cities into 4 categories according to the level of insurance industry development. The results show that the main factor affecting the development level of insurance industry is its dynamic factor; The regional difference of insurance industry development level is obvious, the whole performance is eastern developed, central and western backwardness. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the overall coordinated and sustainable development of China's insurance industry. From the point of view of the development of insurance industry, we should speed up the construction of information, implement the strategy of starting up business with talents, and perfect the service system of reinsurance. From the regional point of view, the eastern region should actively cultivate the core technology and promote the innovation of products and services by virtue of its capital advantage, and the central and western regions should speed up economic development and actively develop characteristic insurance resources so that their potential insurance resource advantages can be transformed into realistic competitive advantages. In addition, regional insurance integration is the new requirement of regional economic integration to the development of insurance industry.
【學位授予單位】：安徽農(nóng)業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F842.3
【參考文獻】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條
1 杜聰慧;崔永偉;崔玉杰;;我國保險業(yè)發(fā)展影響因素的實證分析[J];北方工業(yè)大學學報;2006年01期
2 徐哲,馮U
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