本文選題：擴展的共同因子模型 + 隨機人口預測�。� 參考：《南開大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科學技術(shù)的發(fā)展和生活條件的不斷改善,人們的死亡率下降而壽命延長。這會對一個國家的人口結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生顯著的影響,其突出表現(xiàn)就是老齡人口比重上升,產(chǎn)生嚴重的老齡化現(xiàn)象。由于我國計劃生育政策的長期實施,生育率在近三十年保持在較低的水平上,這更加劇了我國的老齡化問題。老齡化問題是導致我國基本養(yǎng)老金缺口產(chǎn)生和擴大的最重要的原因之一,而養(yǎng)老金制度上的一些缺陷使得缺口問題更加嚴重。本文以基于Lee-Carter模型的擴展的共同因子模型來估計中國人口未來的死亡率變化,結(jié)合中國生育率數(shù)據(jù)的實際情況分析其發(fā)展趨勢,并進行隨機人口預測。基于人口預測的結(jié)果和當前我國的基本養(yǎng)老金制度估計缺口的規(guī)模,缺口產(chǎn)生的原因并提出縮小缺口的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of living conditions, the death rate of people decreases and life expectancy increases. This will have a significant impact on the population structure of a country, its outstanding performance is the proportion of aging population rising, resulting in a serious aging phenomenon. Due to the long-term implementation of the family planning policy in China, the fertility rate has remained at a relatively low level in the past 30 years, which has exacerbated the aging problem in China. The aging problem is one of the most important reasons leading to the generation and expansion of the basic pension gap in China, and some defects in the pension system make the gap problem more serious. In this paper, the extended common factor model based on Lee-Carter model is used to estimate the future mortality changes of Chinese population, and the trend of development is analyzed according to the actual situation of China's fertility data, and the random population prediction is carried out. Based on the results of population forecast and the current basic pension system in China, the size of the gap and the causes of the gap are estimated, and some policy suggestions for reducing the gap are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：南開大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：C924.2;F842.67;F224

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 沈毅;;基于統(tǒng)籌賬戶的城鎮(zhèn)老年人口養(yǎng)老金收支預測分析[J];黨政干部學刊;2011年05期

2 郭席四;我國養(yǎng)老保險資金支付缺口形成的原因與對策探討[J];湖北大學學報(哲學社會科學版);2003年02期

3 路和平,杜志農(nóng);基本養(yǎng)老保險基金收支平衡預測[J];經(jīng)濟理論與經(jīng)濟管理;2000年02期

4 陶紀坤;;“舊農(nóng)�！迸c“新農(nóng)�！狈桨笇Ρ妊芯縖J];蘭州學刊;2010年06期

5 譚湘渝,樊國昌;中國養(yǎng)老保險制度未來償付能力的精算預測與評價[J];人口與經(jīng)濟;2004年01期

6 李南，胡華清;中國隨機人口預測[J];中國人口科學;1998年01期

，

本文編號：2029483