本文選題：擴(kuò)展的共同因子模型 + 隨機(jī)人口預(yù)測(cè)�。� 參考：《南開大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科學(xué)技術(shù)的發(fā)展和生活條件的不斷改善,人們的死亡率下降而壽命延長。這會(huì)對(duì)一個(gè)國家的人口結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生顯著的影響,其突出表現(xiàn)就是老齡人口比重上升,產(chǎn)生嚴(yán)重的老齡化現(xiàn)象。由于我國計(jì)劃生育政策的長期實(shí)施,生育率在近三十年保持在較低的水平上,這更加劇了我國的老齡化問題。老齡化問題是導(dǎo)致我國基本養(yǎng)老金缺口產(chǎn)生和擴(kuò)大的最重要的原因之一,而養(yǎng)老金制度上的一些缺陷使得缺口問題更加嚴(yán)重。本文以基于Lee-Carter模型的擴(kuò)展的共同因子模型來估計(jì)中國人口未來的死亡率變化,結(jié)合中國生育率數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)際情況分析其發(fā)展趨勢(shì),并進(jìn)行隨機(jī)人口預(yù)測(cè)。基于人口預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果和當(dāng)前我國的基本養(yǎng)老金制度估計(jì)缺口的規(guī)模,缺口產(chǎn)生的原因并提出縮小缺口的政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of living conditions, the death rate of people decreases and life expectancy increases. This will have a significant impact on the population structure of a country, its outstanding performance is the proportion of aging population rising, resulting in a serious aging phenomenon. Due to the long-term implementation of the family planning policy in China, the fertility rate has remained at a relatively low level in the past 30 years, which has exacerbated the aging problem in China. The aging problem is one of the most important reasons leading to the generation and expansion of the basic pension gap in China, and some defects in the pension system make the gap problem more serious. In this paper, the extended common factor model based on Lee-Carter model is used to estimate the future mortality changes of Chinese population, and the trend of development is analyzed according to the actual situation of China's fertility data, and the random population prediction is carried out. Based on the results of population forecast and the current basic pension system in China, the size of the gap and the causes of the gap are estimated, and some policy suggestions for reducing the gap are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：C924.2;F842.67;F224

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

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本文編號(hào)：2029482