本文選題：健康保險(xiǎn) + 價(jià)值評(píng)估��； 參考：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自從1982年,伴隨著我國的保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)恢復(fù),商業(yè)健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)也經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)從無到有、突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展階段,尤其是2005年以后,陸續(xù)成立了人保健康、平安健康、昆侖健康、和諧健康等四家專門從事健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的公司,標(biāo)志著我國健康保險(xiǎn)市場開始踏上專業(yè)化經(jīng)營的道路。而截至2011年,在我國經(jīng)營健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的保險(xiǎn)公司共有95家,分別為外資壽險(xiǎn)公司28家,中資壽險(xiǎn)公司33家,財(cái)險(xiǎn)公司30家以及專業(yè)健康保險(xiǎn)公司4家。商業(yè)健康保險(xiǎn)的保費(fèi)收入也從1999年的36.5億元增加到2011年的691.72億元。我國商業(yè)健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)已取得可喜的成績。 健康保險(xiǎn)公司要想在未來獲得更好的發(fā)展,就必須做好自身的經(jīng)營管理,而做好經(jīng)營管理就必須準(zhǔn)確地評(píng)估出自身的價(jià)值,而價(jià)值評(píng)估不僅僅只是得出一個(gè)數(shù)字,首先,健康保險(xiǎn)公司可以以此數(shù)值為業(yè)績考核的重要參考指標(biāo)；其次,在價(jià)值評(píng)估的過程中,健康保險(xiǎn)公司可以從其中獲得很多中間信息,認(rèn)清價(jià)值來源,從而采取有針對(duì)性的措施提升自身價(jià)值,有助于企業(yè)經(jīng)營的目的---價(jià)值最大化的實(shí)現(xiàn)；第三,我國健康保險(xiǎn)市場正處于蓬勃發(fā)展的階段,監(jiān)管者出于維護(hù)消費(fèi)者權(quán)益、保證保險(xiǎn)市場持續(xù)有效運(yùn)行的目的,也需要對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司的價(jià)值進(jìn)行管控與監(jiān)督；最后,由于一般傳統(tǒng)價(jià)值評(píng)估方法不適于我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司,采用適合健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的評(píng)估方法得出的價(jià)值更符合投資者以及利益相關(guān)者的要求�；谝陨系睦碛�,為了保證健康保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)更快更好地發(fā)展,準(zhǔn)確有效的價(jià)值評(píng)估必不可少。 目前,國內(nèi)對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值進(jìn)行研究的文獻(xiàn)極少,本文首先探討了保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值的概念和價(jià)值評(píng)估的重要性,并結(jié)合健康保險(xiǎn)的特征和當(dāng)前我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司所處的市場環(huán)境,總結(jié)了國外健康保險(xiǎn)公司常用的三種價(jià)值評(píng)估方法：市場法、現(xiàn)值法和內(nèi)含價(jià)值法,緊接著對(duì)這三種方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)以及適用的條件進(jìn)行了分析,并結(jié)合了我國當(dāng)前國情,同時(shí)對(duì)自由現(xiàn)金流量模型提出應(yīng)該參照內(nèi)含價(jià)值法評(píng)估新業(yè)務(wù)價(jià)值,最終得出結(jié)論是當(dāng)前最適合我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司進(jìn)行價(jià)值評(píng)估的方法是內(nèi)含價(jià)值法,同時(shí)也需要結(jié)合自由現(xiàn)金流量模型的評(píng)估結(jié)果進(jìn)行考慮,待時(shí)機(jī)成熟時(shí)也可以參考市場法的評(píng)估結(jié)果。筆者使用自由現(xiàn)金流量模型、內(nèi)含價(jià)值法、市盈率法對(duì)人保健康保險(xiǎn)公司進(jìn)行了實(shí)證價(jià)值評(píng)估研究,價(jià)值評(píng)估的最終目的是實(shí)現(xiàn)公司價(jià)值最大化,盡可能提升公司價(jià)值,因此,文章的最后對(duì)我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司提出了價(jià)值提升的相關(guān)建議。本文的主要內(nèi)容和結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第一章主要詳細(xì)闡述了論文的選題背景,研究意義,研究的目的、內(nèi)容與方法,文獻(xiàn)綜述和論文的主要貢獻(xiàn)與不足,并對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了總結(jié)與歸納。文章主要采用從一般到特殊的研究思路,根據(jù)健康保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)可以分為長期業(yè)務(wù)和短期業(yè)務(wù)的特點(diǎn),研究出對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司進(jìn)’行價(jià)值評(píng)估的關(guān)鍵在于認(rèn)清健康保險(xiǎn)的業(yè)務(wù)特征、行業(yè)發(fā)展、特殊的假設(shè)條件和長期業(yè)務(wù)的價(jià)值評(píng)估。 第二章通過對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的研究,得出進(jìn)行健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估必須了解其凈利潤或者盈利能力。筆者從健康保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品及其特征入手,得出健康保險(xiǎn)在進(jìn)行價(jià)值評(píng)估時(shí)面臨凈利潤預(yù)計(jì)困難、產(chǎn)品形態(tài)復(fù)雜、精算假設(shè)主觀性強(qiáng)、行業(yè)發(fā)展前景不明朗等難點(diǎn),并借鑒和分析了國外健康保險(xiǎn)公司常用的三種主流價(jià)值評(píng)估方法。 第三章從我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司的經(jīng)營現(xiàn)狀入手,在國外健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估方法的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)這些方法在我國的適用性進(jìn)行了分析。筆者發(fā)現(xiàn),它們在我國實(shí)務(wù)中均會(huì)有不適之處,從而導(dǎo)致最終評(píng)估結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性受到影響。如：由于缺乏公開活躍的市場和缺乏可比公司,市場法暫時(shí)不適合作為我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司的價(jià)值評(píng)估方法；而又由于我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司大多虧損和保險(xiǎn)公司凈利潤的預(yù)測極為困難,并會(huì)低估長期業(yè)務(wù)的價(jià)值,自由現(xiàn)金流量模型必須做出一定的修正；從理論上說,內(nèi)含價(jià)值是比較適合用于健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的,但由于計(jì)算方法復(fù)雜和我國健康保險(xiǎn)發(fā)展地區(qū)差異性較大等原因,實(shí)務(wù)中,內(nèi)含價(jià)值法極為復(fù)雜,接著分析了健康保險(xiǎn)使用內(nèi)含價(jià)值時(shí)所需要考慮的一些特殊的假設(shè)。最后,筆者認(rèn)為在三種方法中,內(nèi)含價(jià)值法是最適合我國當(dāng)前國情的并且通過內(nèi)含價(jià)值的評(píng)估,健康保險(xiǎn)公司能夠認(rèn)識(shí)到價(jià)值的源泉,從而為采取措施實(shí)現(xiàn)公司價(jià)值最大化提升提供了可能性。 第四章,由于我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司數(shù)據(jù)采集十分困難,并且精算報(bào)告被視為商業(yè)機(jī)密不予公布,筆者只能以中國最大的專業(yè)健康保險(xiǎn)公司—中國人民健康保險(xiǎn)公司(文中簡稱人保健康)為例,根據(jù)其2010年和2011年年報(bào)的數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用市盈率法、內(nèi)含價(jià)值法和自由現(xiàn)金流量模型分別計(jì)算其價(jià)值。實(shí)證顯示,由自有現(xiàn)金流量模型做出的結(jié)果為負(fù)數(shù),其原因是公司處于行業(yè)的起步期,利潤情況極不穩(wěn)定,難以有效評(píng)估出未來盈利狀況。市盈率法與內(nèi)含價(jià)值法做出的結(jié)果較接近。綜合分析之后,得出內(nèi)含價(jià)值法適合我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司現(xiàn)階段的價(jià)值評(píng)估,另兩種方法可作為適當(dāng)?shù)难a(bǔ)充。 最后,筆者對(duì)三種評(píng)估方法進(jìn)行了小結(jié),并嘗試從政府和保險(xiǎn)公司管理層兩方面提出了有助于我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值提升的建議。 本文的主要的貢獻(xiàn)表現(xiàn)在題目較為新穎,并且對(duì)我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司發(fā)展有一定的幫助,隨著市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,價(jià)值評(píng)估對(duì)于公司意義重大,但是,國內(nèi)對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司的價(jià)值評(píng)估進(jìn)行討論的文獻(xiàn)極少。因此,本文較新穎并且有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。此外,筆者在寫作過程中,注重總結(jié)、歸納與思考,總結(jié)并探討了影響健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的主要因素,并在總結(jié)與借鑒國外健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國國情,嘗試提出適合我國健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的方法以及價(jià)值提升的相關(guān)建議。但是由于筆者自身水平不夠、時(shí)間有限和健康保險(xiǎn)公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的實(shí)務(wù)中的具體做法的保密性,文章有許多不足之處,如對(duì)內(nèi)含價(jià)值法分析較淺,無法對(duì)健康保險(xiǎn)公司運(yùn)用內(nèi)含價(jià)值法做實(shí)證,并且對(duì)價(jià)值評(píng)估方法的分析欠缺實(shí)務(wù)中的經(jīng)驗(yàn)與考慮。希望筆者以后有時(shí)間和機(jī)會(huì)將本文的不足逐步完善。
[Abstract]:Since 1982, with the recovery of the insurance business in China, the business health insurance business has also experienced a stage of rapid development. Especially after 2005, four companies specializing in health insurance, such as health, health, health, harmony and health in Kunlun, have marked the health insurance of our country. As of 2011, there were 95 insurance companies operating health insurance in China, including 28 foreign life insurance companies, 33 Chinese life insurance companies, 30 financial and insurance companies and 4 professional health insurance companies. The premium income of commercial health insurance increased from 3 billion 650 million yuan to 20 in 1999. 11 years of 69 billion 172 million yuan. China's commercial health insurance business has made gratifying achievements.
If health insurance companies want to get better development in the future, they must do their own management, and doing business management must accurately assess their own value, and value evaluation is not just a number. First, health insurance companies can count as the important reference index of performance assessment; secondly, In the process of value evaluation, health insurance companies can obtain a lot of intermediate information, recognize the source of value, and take targeted measures to improve their own value and help the purpose of business operation - the realization of the maximization of value. Third, the health insurance market in China is in the stage of vigorous development, and the supervisor is out of maintenance. The interests of consumers and the purpose of ensuring the sustainable and effective operation of the insurance market are also required to control and supervise the value of the health insurance companies. Finally, the value of the evaluation method suitable for the health insurance business is more consistent with the investor and the interest, because the general traditional value evaluation method is not suitable for the health insurance companies of our country. On the basis of the above reasons, accurate and effective value assessment is essential to ensure a faster and better development of the health insurance industry.
At present, there are few literature on the value of health insurance companies in China. This paper first discusses the concept of the value of the insurance company and the importance of the value evaluation, and combines the characteristics of health insurance and the market environment of the current health insurance companies in China, and summarizes the three methods of value evaluation commonly used by foreign health insurance companies: Market law, present value method and intrinsic value method are used to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods and the applicable conditions, and combine the current national conditions of our country. At the same time, the free cash flow model should be put forward to evaluate the new business value with reference to the internal value method. Finally, the conclusion is that the most suitable for our health insurance company is to be carried out at present. The method of value evaluation is internal value method, and it also needs to be considered in combination with the evaluation results of free cash flow model. When the opportunity is ripe, it can also refer to the evaluation results of market law. The author uses the free cash flow model, the internal value method and the price earnings ratio method to carry out empirical value evaluation on the human health insurance company. The ultimate aim of the value assessment is to maximize the value of the company and to improve the value of the company as much as possible. Therefore, the last part of the article puts forward some suggestions on the improvement of the value of our health insurance company. The main contents and structure of this paper are as follows:
The first chapter mainly expounds the background, significance, purpose, content and method of the research, the main contributions and shortcomings of the literature review and paper, and summarizes and summarizes the related literature of the health insurance company. The article mainly adopts the general to special research ideas, according to the health insurance business can It is divided into the characteristics of long-term business and short term business. The key to the assessment of the entry value of health insurance companies is to identify the business characteristics of health insurance, the development of the industry, the special assumptions and the value assessment of the long-term business.
The second chapter, through the study of the value evaluation of the health insurance company, concludes that the value assessment of the health insurance company must understand its net profit or profitability. From the health insurance products and its characteristics, the author draws the conclusion that health insurance is faced with the difficulties of net profit, the complex product form and the actuarial hypothesis. It is difficult to observe the nature of the industry and the development prospect of the industry. It also draws lessons from the analysis of three mainstream valuation methods commonly used by foreign health insurance companies.
The third chapter, starting with the management status of health insurance companies in China, analyses the applicability of these methods in our country on the basis of the valuation methods of foreign health insurance companies. The author finds that they all have discomfort in our country's practice, which leads to the impact of the accuracy of the final evaluation results. For example, because of the shortage of the results. Lack of open market and lack of comparable companies, market law is temporarily unsuitable for the value evaluation method of China's health insurance companies, but because most of the loss of our health insurance companies and the forecast of the net profit of insurance companies are extremely difficult and will underestimate the value of long-term business, the free cash flow model must be made to a certain extent. In theory, the intrinsic value is more suitable for the value assessment of the health insurance company, but in practice, the intrinsic value method is very complex in practice because of the complexity of the calculation method and the large difference in the development area of the health insurance in our country. Then, it analyzes some special fake which the health insurance needs to consider in the use of the intrinsic value. Finally, the author thinks that in the three methods, the internal value method is the most suitable for our country's current national conditions and through the assessment of the intrinsic value, the health insurance company can recognize the source of value, thus providing the possibility to take measures to maximize the value of the company.
In the fourth chapter, because the data collection of our health insurance company is very difficult and the actuarial report is considered to be not published, the author can only use the P / E method according to the data of its 2010 and 2011 Annual Reports, for example, China's largest professional health insurance company, the Chinese people's health insurance company (the article is referred to as the health insurance for short). The value of internal value method and free cash flow model are calculated respectively. The results show that the result is negative. The reason is that the company is in the start period of the industry, the profit situation is very unstable, and it is difficult to effectively evaluate the future profit. The price earnings method is close to the results of the internal value method. After analysis, it is concluded that the embedded value method is suitable for the valuation of health insurance companies in China at present stage, and the other two methods can be used as an appropriate supplement.
Finally, the author makes a summary of the three evaluation methods, and tries to put forward some suggestions from the two aspects of the government and the management of the insurance companies to help the health insurance companies in China to improve their value.
The main contributions of this paper are new and helpful to the development of health insurance companies in China. With the development of the market economy, the value assessment is of great significance to the company. However, there are few literature in China to discuss the value assessment of health insurance companies. In addition, in the process of writing, the author pays attention to summing up, summarizing and thinking, summarizes and discusses the main factors that affect the value evaluation of health insurance companies. On the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from the experience of the value assessment of foreign health insurance companies and combining with the national conditions of our country, the author tries to put forward a method suitable for the evaluation of the value of health insurance companies in our country. But because of the inadequacy of the author's own level, limited time and the secrecy of the practice of the health insurance company's value assessment, the article has many shortcomings, such as the shallow analysis of the internal value method, and the inability to use the intrinsic value method for the health insurance company to make an empirical study and to evaluate the value of the value method. The analysis of law is short of practical experience and consideration. I hope that I will have time and opportunity to improve the shortcomings of this article.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F275;F842.3

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前6條

1 劉娥平;公司價(jià)值評(píng)估方法及其應(yīng)用[J];財(cái)會(huì)月刊;2004年07期

2 徐傳豹;;關(guān)注新醫(yī)改帶來的投資機(jī)會(huì)[J];股市動(dòng)態(tài)分析;2008年42期

3 周釗;;壽險(xiǎn)公司內(nèi)含價(jià)值理論與應(yīng)用探析[J];湖南科技學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2005年12期

4 陳滔;國外健康保險(xiǎn)精算現(xiàn)狀分析及啟示研究[J];上海保險(xiǎn);2004年05期

5 謝曉霞;;我國保險(xiǎn)企業(yè)價(jià)值評(píng)估方法選擇研究[J];中國保險(xiǎn);2007年11期

6 吳定富;建立符合我國保險(xiǎn)業(yè)實(shí)際的內(nèi)含價(jià)值評(píng)估體系[J];中國金融;2005年15期

，

本文編號(hào)：1984618