本文選題：老齡化高峰期 + 城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶空賬轉(zhuǎn)制成本　； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于我國(guó)人口老齡化呈現(xiàn)出速度快、基數(shù)數(shù)大、地區(qū)差異大、未富先老等基本特征，老年負(fù)擔(dān)系數(shù)上升，使養(yǎng)老金的支付面臨巨大的壓力，勞動(dòng)年齡的人口對(duì)老年人的贍養(yǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)在不斷加重，帶來(lái)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。人力資源和社會(huì)保障部副部長(zhǎng)胡曉義2011年2月24日表示，我國(guó)2030年前后將進(jìn)入人口老齡化高峰，60歲以上的老人將達(dá)到我國(guó)總?cè)丝诘?0%以上，即約4.32億。老年人口的增長(zhǎng)速度非常快，如何才能應(yīng)對(duì)即將到來(lái)的人口老齡化高峰期呢？首先，物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)即足夠的資金才能保證老年人的生活，因此我國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)變現(xiàn)收現(xiàn)付式養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度為社會(huì)統(tǒng)籌和個(gè)人賬戶結(jié)合的部分積累制，以個(gè)人賬戶積累資金，應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化。但由于制度轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中存在的一些問(wèn)題，個(gè)人賬戶空賬運(yùn)行，據(jù)中國(guó)社科院世界社保研究中心主任鄭秉文透露，“空賬”規(guī)模嚴(yán)重的是空賬缺口的不斷擴(kuò)大，與2004年的7400億相比，6年時(shí)間內(nèi)“空賬”規(guī)模已經(jīng)擴(kuò)大了將近一倍，中國(guó)養(yǎng)老金個(gè)人賬戶2010年“空賬”規(guī)模約1.3萬(wàn)億。2001年我國(guó)以遼寧為試點(diǎn)進(jìn)行做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶，接著該項(xiàng)政策又在黑龍江、吉林、及另外八省試點(diǎn)實(shí)行。當(dāng)前，雖然這些省份做實(shí)效果明顯，但除三批試點(diǎn)和一些自主做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的省份外還有很多省份的個(gè)人賬戶繼續(xù)空賬運(yùn)營(yíng)，且“空賬”越來(lái)越大，而老齡化高峰期迫在眉睫，因此應(yīng)盡快將個(gè)人賬戶做實(shí)。那么應(yīng)如何以最短的速度最有效地做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶如此之巨大空賬規(guī)模呢？本文以城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶制度變遷為切入點(diǎn)，研究產(chǎn)生該情況的歷史及具體原因，繼而探索和總結(jié)有效的快速的個(gè)人賬戶做實(shí)之策，為城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的改革完善提出有益的政策建議。 本文主要分為五大塊，第一章為緒論，該章節(jié)分析了研究做實(shí)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶的背景及意義，提出了自己的研究思路與方法，主要以三批做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的試點(diǎn)模式及國(guó)外養(yǎng)老金制度改革及養(yǎng)老金投資管理為樣本，以理論實(shí)證研究和規(guī)范分析為主，同時(shí)運(yùn)用到統(tǒng)計(jì)描述、比較分析等分析工具，從個(gè)人賬戶空賬的原因及歷史追溯，空賬的危害及在做實(shí)過(guò)程中存的問(wèn)題進(jìn)行分析，對(duì)這些問(wèn)題進(jìn)行實(shí)證、理論方面的研究，找到問(wèn)題根源和尋找解決方案；在以上分析研究的基礎(chǔ)上，本文客觀地提出了論文的創(chuàng)新與不足點(diǎn)。 第二章從城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶制度方面進(jìn)行分析研究，首先界定了關(guān)于該理論的幾個(gè)概念，如中國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)與城鎮(zhèn)居民社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)的界定；其次按照一定的時(shí)間段，以個(gè)人賬戶空賬的程度為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)將城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)個(gè)人賬戶制度的發(fā)展分為三階段，使分析更具宏觀針對(duì)性。 第三章做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶進(jìn)行了必要性分析，以生命周期理論和代際交疊模型兩個(gè)理論為基礎(chǔ)，，分析了個(gè)人賬戶空賬的5大具體原因，如制度調(diào)整過(guò)于頻繁等，此外緊跟著討論了個(gè)人賬戶繼續(xù)空賬運(yùn)營(yíng)的弊端，無(wú)法應(yīng)對(duì)即將到來(lái)的人口老齡化高峰期等，最后，從四個(gè)方面分析了做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶對(duì)人口老齡化及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，總之，做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶無(wú)論從這兩者中哪個(gè)方面講都是利大于弊。 第四章主要以做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的三個(gè)試點(diǎn)經(jīng)驗(yàn)為出發(fā)點(diǎn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)研究，首先闡述了三種具體做實(shí)模式，如遼寧“補(bǔ)缺口”模式、黑吉“補(bǔ)賬戶”模式、八省“動(dòng)態(tài)做實(shí)、辦動(dòng)態(tài)補(bǔ)助模式”；其次，對(duì)這三種模式進(jìn)行了比較說(shuō)明；最后，在分析比較的基礎(chǔ)上分別對(duì)三種模式進(jìn)行了評(píng)價(jià)，主要是從經(jīng)驗(yàn)和做實(shí)過(guò)程應(yīng)注意問(wèn)題兩方面進(jìn)行的模式評(píng)價(jià)，為即將做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的省份或地區(qū)提出實(shí)踐性的可參考經(jīng)驗(yàn)。 第五章在國(guó)外經(jīng)驗(yàn)的借鑒及上文中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)三種做實(shí)模式分析的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)，提出了做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的策略建議，即首先應(yīng)確定好做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的基本原則，如確定做實(shí)步驟和規(guī)模、逐步做實(shí)原則、“做大做實(shí)”原則等；最后，考慮到做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的方式多種多樣且性質(zhì)各異，本文主要以兩個(gè)大方向：直接填補(bǔ)個(gè)人賬戶養(yǎng)老金缺口的方式、完善配套政策措施做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶，提出做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的策略建議。直接填補(bǔ)個(gè)人賬戶養(yǎng)老金缺口的方式主要有：明確責(zé)任，中央地方財(cái)政補(bǔ)償、劃撥國(guó)有資產(chǎn)填補(bǔ)養(yǎng)老金隱性債務(wù)等；完善配套政策措施有：提高統(tǒng)籌層次擴(kuò)大養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)覆蓋面的同時(shí)加強(qiáng)征繳工作、探索養(yǎng)老金有效管理和投資方式并以收益填補(bǔ)“空賬”等。 由于我國(guó)是屬于未富先老的典型老齡化國(guó)家，老齡化時(shí)間短且儲(chǔ)備不充分，因此，我國(guó)做實(shí)個(gè)人賬戶的任務(wù)相對(duì)與其他國(guó)家更為繁重，應(yīng)集政府和企業(yè)、社會(huì)的共同之力進(jìn)行做實(shí)努力，重點(diǎn)關(guān)注。關(guān)于具體做實(shí)方式的選擇還需要各省份和地區(qū)在做實(shí)的過(guò)程中積累經(jīng)驗(yàn)不斷調(diào)整和改善。
[Abstract]:Due to the rapid population aging in China, the basic characteristics of the large number of base numbers, large regional differences, no rich first class, the rising of the old age burden coefficient, the huge pressure on the pension payment, the increasing burden of the aging population to the elderly, the financial crisis of the endowment insurance fund, and the human resources and social security. Hu Xiaoyi, Vice Minister of the Department, said in February 24, 2011 that China will enter the peak of population aging before and after 2030. The elderly over 60 will reach more than 30% of the total population of our country, that is, about 432 million. The growth rate of the elderly population is very fast. How can we cope with the coming age of aging population? First, the material basis is sufficient. In order to ensure the life of the elderly, the current payment system is converted to a part of the integration of social planning and personal accounts, and the accumulation of funds in individual accounts to cope with the aging. However, due to some problems in the process of the system transformation, the operation of personal accounts in the empty account, according to the World Social Security Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of social sciences. Zheng Bingwen, the director of the center, revealed that the scale of "empty accounts" is a serious expansion of the gap. Compared with 740 billion in 2004, the scale of "empty accounts" has expanded almost twice in 6 years, and the size of the "empty account" of China's personal account in 2010 is about 1 trillion and 300 billion.2001 years in Liaoning. The policy has been carried out in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and the other eight provinces. Although these provinces are practically effective, the individual accounts in many provinces continue to operate in addition to the three pilots and some autonomous personal accounts, and the "empty accounts" are becoming bigger and bigger, and the peak of aging is imminent. How to make the personal account realistic quickly. Then how should we make the most effective way to make the personal account so huge and empty accounts at the shortest speed? This article takes the change of the individual account system of the urban workers' basic pension insurance as the breakthrough point, studies the history and the concrete reasons of the situation, and then explores and summarizes the effective and fast personal account. The policy provides useful policy recommendations for the reform and improvement of the basic old-age insurance system for urban workers.
This article is divided into five main parts. The first chapter is the introduction. This chapter analyzes the background and significance of studying the personal account of the basic pension insurance for urban workers and workers, and puts forward his own research ideas and methods. It mainly takes the pilot model of three batches of personal accounts and the reform of pension system and the management of pension investment as the sample. Empirical research and normative analysis are mainly used, at the same time, using statistical description, comparative analysis and other analysis tools, from the reasons and historical traceability of empty accounts in individual accounts, the harm of empty accounts and the analysis of the problems stored in the actual process, the empirical study of these problems, theoretical research, finding the root of the problem and finding solutions; above On the basis of analysis and research, this paper objectively puts forward the innovation and deficiency of the paper.
The second chapter analyzes and studies the personal account system of urban workers' basic pension insurance. First, it defines several concepts about the theory, such as the definition of the basic old-age insurance for urban workers in China and the social endowment insurance of urban residents; secondly, according to a certain period of time, the level of the personal account is the standard of the town. The development of individual account system of basic pension insurance is divided into three stages, making the analysis more targeted.
The third chapter makes an analysis of the necessity of personal account. Based on the two theories of life cycle theory and intergenerational overlapping model, it analyzes 5 specific reasons for the empty accounts of individual accounts, such as the overfrequent adjustment of the system, in addition to discussing the shortcomings of the personal account continuing to carry out the empty accounts, and can not cope with the coming population aging. In the end, the impact of personal accounts on population aging and macro-economy is analyzed from four aspects. In a word, it is more advantageous than both of these two aspects to make a real personal account.
The fourth chapter mainly takes three pilot experiences of personal account as the starting point for the summary and research. First, it expounds three concrete and realistic models, such as the "supplement gap" mode in Liaoning, the "supplementary account" mode of black Ji, the eight provinces "dynamic and realistic, and the dynamic subsidy mode". Secondly, the comparison of the three models is given; finally, the points are divided into two types. On the basis of analysis and comparison, the three models are evaluated respectively, mainly from the two aspects of the model evaluation which should be paid attention to from the experience and the actual process, and put forward practical experience for the provinces or regions that are about to make a real personal account.
In the fifth chapter, on the basis of the experience of foreign countries and the analysis of the three actual patterns in China, and on the basis of the relevant experiences and lessons of China, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to do personal accounts in the light of relevant experience and lessons. Finally, considering the ways of making personal accounts varied and different in nature, this paper mainly takes two major directions: to fill the pension gap in personal accounts directly, to improve the supporting policy and measures to make the personal account, and to put forward the strategy suggestions of the personal account. It is true that the central and local financial compensation, the allocation of state-owned assets to fill the implicit pension debt, and so on, and to improve the supporting policies and measures are to improve the overall level of the endowment insurance coverage and strengthen the collection work, explore the effective management and investment methods of the pension and fill the "empty account" with the income.
Because our country is a typical old country which is not rich and old, the aging time is short and the reserve is insufficient, therefore, the task of making the personal account in our country is more heavy than that of other countries. The region accumulates experience and adjusts and improves in the process of being solid.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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