本文選題：退休年齡　切入點：養(yǎng)老保險　出處：《山東財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來，伴隨著社會經(jīng)濟、文化的不斷發(fā)展，我國人口結(jié)構(gòu)類型也發(fā)生著變化，老齡化的程度持續(xù)加深，從而導(dǎo)致我國未來30年內(nèi)進入退休年齡期的老年人口將大幅度增加。在人口結(jié)構(gòu)趨向老齡化和人均預(yù)期壽命不斷提高的背景下，世界各國社會養(yǎng)老基金收支平衡都面臨著巨大的挑戰(zhàn)。隨著我國養(yǎng)老金“空賬”問題的日益嚴(yán)重，以及人口老齡化帶來的養(yǎng)老保險基金賬戶支出的增大，“延遲退休”成為社會各界關(guān)注的焦點問題。由此政府已把“延遲退休年齡”提上日程，十八屆三中全會公報重點指出要建立更加公平可持續(xù)的社會保障制度，研究制定漸進式退休年齡政策�！把舆t退休”已成必然趨勢，如何確定最優(yōu)退休年齡以及如何有效的推行“延遲退休年齡”已成為政府和學(xué)界的一項重大課題。 本文以養(yǎng)老保險制度的可持續(xù)性為出發(fā)點，運用精算理論充分考慮養(yǎng)老金繳費率、替代率、繳費年齡、實際工資增長率、死亡年齡等因素，以個人角度出發(fā)，構(gòu)建個人一生中養(yǎng)老金繳納、領(lǐng)取模型，在社會養(yǎng)老保險制度可持續(xù)發(fā)展的前提下，按照一個人一生之中繳納養(yǎng)老金金額和退休后領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金金額相平衡的原則，構(gòu)建了最優(yōu)退休年齡模型，并分不同行業(yè)測算最優(yōu)退休年齡，以期為社會養(yǎng)老保險體制改革提供指導(dǎo)。本文共分為六部分，結(jié)構(gòu)如下： 第1章為緒論，指出了本文的研究背景及意義，并對國內(nèi)外養(yǎng)老保險基金收支及退休年齡的研究現(xiàn)狀進行了綜述。在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出本文的研究方法、結(jié)構(gòu)安排、創(chuàng)新之處以及不足。 第2章為養(yǎng)老保險制度可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理論分析，理論探討我國養(yǎng)老保險體系發(fā)展進程，以及我國養(yǎng)老保險收支的現(xiàn)狀，基于此理論分析了我國養(yǎng)老保險基金收支缺口產(chǎn)生的原因。 第3章為個人養(yǎng)老金繳納和領(lǐng)取的精算模型，主要是以個人角度為視角，構(gòu)建一個普通人養(yǎng)老金繳納、收支模型，從而可以近似探討整個社會的養(yǎng)老金體系。若是能夠保證個人一生繳納養(yǎng)老金總額大于個人一生領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金總額則可以保證養(yǎng)老保險基金的可持續(xù)性。 第4章為最優(yōu)退休年齡的模型構(gòu)建及測算不同就業(yè)群體的最優(yōu)退休年齡，首先構(gòu)建最優(yōu)退休年齡的精算模型，其次理論分析各影響因素對退休年齡的效應(yīng)影響，最后利用《2012年統(tǒng)計年鑒》對最優(yōu)的退休年齡進行實證分析。 第5章為延遲退休年齡的措施建議，首先基于本文實證分析提出逐步提高法定退休年齡的方案設(shè)計，其次鼓勵建立激勵相容的養(yǎng)老金給付制度，最后提出應(yīng)當(dāng)推行彈性退休制度，以此來適應(yīng)社會發(fā)展。 第6章為結(jié)論，對本文的研究結(jié)論進行表述。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the continuous development of social economy and culture, the type of population structure in China has also changed, and the degree of aging has been deepened, which will lead to a large increase in the number of elderly people who will enter the retirement age in the next 30 years.Against the background of aging population structure and increasing life expectancy, the balance of income and expenditure of social pension funds in the world is facing great challenges.With the increasingly serious problem of "empty account" of pension in China and the increase of the expenditure of pension fund account brought by the aging of the population, "delayed retirement" has become the focus of attention of all walks of life.As a result, the government has put the "deferred retirement age" on the agenda. The communique of the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to establish a more equitable and sustainable social security system and to study and formulate a gradual retirement age policy."delayed retirement" has become an inevitable trend, how to determine the optimal retirement age and how to effectively implement the "delayed retirement age" has become an important issue for the government and academic circles.Based on the sustainability of the old-age insurance system, this paper makes full use of actuarial theory to consider such factors as pension contribution rate, replacement rate, contributory age, real wage growth rate, death age, and so on.This paper constructs a model of pension payment and collection in a person's lifetime. Under the premise of the sustainable development of the social endowment insurance system, it is based on the principle of balance between the amount of pension paid during one's lifetime and the amount of pension received after retirement.The optimal retirement age model is constructed and the optimal retirement age is calculated in different industries in order to provide guidance for the reform of social pension insurance system.This paper is divided into six parts, the structure is as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, pointing out the research background and significance of this paper, and summarizes the research status of pension fund income and expenditure and retirement age at home and abroad.On this basis, this paper puts forward the research methods, structural arrangements, innovations and shortcomings.Chapter 2 is the theoretical analysis of the sustainable development of the old-age insurance system, the theoretical discussion of the development process of the pension insurance system in China, as well as the current situation of the income and expenditure of the old-age insurance system in China.Based on this theory, this paper analyzes the causes of the gap between income and expenditure of pension insurance fund in China.The third chapter is the actuarial model of individual pension payment and receipt, which is mainly from the perspective of individual, and constructs an ordinary pension payment, income and expenditure model, so that the pension system of the whole society can be discussed approximately.The sustainability of the pension fund can be guaranteed if the total amount of the individual's lifetime pension is greater than the total amount of the individual's lifetime pension.In chapter 4, the optimal retirement age model is constructed and calculated for different employment groups. Firstly, an actuarial model of the optimal retirement age is constructed, and then the effect of various influencing factors on retirement age is analyzed theoretically.Finally, the optimal retirement age is empirically analyzed by the Statistical Yearbook of 2012.Chapter 5 is about the measures to delay the retirement age. Firstly, based on the empirical analysis of this paper, the author proposes a scheme to raise the legal retirement age step by step, and then encourages the establishment of an incentive compatible pension payment system.Finally, the flexible retirement system should be implemented in order to adapt to social development.Chapter 6 is the conclusion of this paper.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F249.2;F842.67

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