本文選題：人口老齡化　切入點(diǎn)：養(yǎng)老金　出處：《上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)聯(lián)合國的預(yù)測(cè),人口老齡化的趨勢(shì)不再像以前那樣維持在穩(wěn)定的態(tài)勢(shì)。截至21世紀(jì)初,幾乎在任何國家,人口老齡化比例相當(dāng)嚴(yán)重,都增長(zhǎng)達(dá)兩到三個(gè)百分點(diǎn)(Jackson,2002)。尤其是在發(fā)達(dá)國家,老年人群基本上占據(jù)了人數(shù)總量的15%。聯(lián)合國數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)表明,老年人數(shù)在全球占比截至2030年將預(yù)計(jì)接近25%,預(yù)期2050年,該數(shù)值將會(huì)增長(zhǎng)至30%(聯(lián)合國,2013)。第六次人口普查顯示我國人口老齡化的趨勢(shì)進(jìn)一步加快。在全國人口快速老齡化的背景下,我國社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)收支失衡的問題日益突出。政府有關(guān)部門希望通過延遲參保職工退休年齡的辦法來緩解養(yǎng)老金支付問題。但是,絕大多數(shù)企業(yè)職工不贊成和不支持延遲退休年齡的政策意圖。其中的一個(gè)重要原因是,當(dāng)前的養(yǎng)老金計(jì)發(fā)辦法沒有為延遲退休年齡提供足夠的激勵(lì),反而可能存在反向激勵(lì)。本文對(duì)2011年中國健康和老年人養(yǎng)老追蹤調(diào)查(CHARLS)及2013年和2014年的跟蹤調(diào)查的1001份問卷的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)分析表明,85%以上的男性職工和90%以上的女性職工沒有選擇延遲退休。男性職工的平均退休年齡為57.36歲,女性職工的平均退休年齡僅為50.34歲。本文利用養(yǎng)老金替代率水平與個(gè)人延遲退休的意愿進(jìn)行回歸,回歸結(jié)果顯示,個(gè)人延遲退休與養(yǎng)老金替代率在10%的顯著水平上呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān),當(dāng)引入職稱變量之后,結(jié)果表現(xiàn)出1%以上的顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。而將因變量延遲退休替換為樣本真實(shí)退齡之后,結(jié)果顯示個(gè)人實(shí)際退出勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的年齡與養(yǎng)老金替代率并不相關(guān)。本文的實(shí)證研究分析表明,當(dāng)討論了其他控制變量的作用情況下,總體來說,勞動(dòng)者選擇延遲退休的養(yǎng)老金替代率將降低15.2%,其中,男職工的延遲退休與養(yǎng)老金替代率關(guān)系并不顯著,而女職工延遲退休會(huì)更大程度的降低替代率,這說明如今基本養(yǎng)老金保障體系未能鼓勵(lì)職工延遲退休,反而具有使得退休者提早離職的收益激勵(lì)。結(jié)果反映延后退休并未切合勞動(dòng)人員個(gè)人意愿和決策,當(dāng)前實(shí)行的基本養(yǎng)老保障制度也未能實(shí)現(xiàn)鼓勵(lì)延后獲取養(yǎng)老金的年齡的目標(biāo),從而推遲退休政策也很難得到落實(shí)。
[Abstract]:According to United Nations projections, the trend of population ageing is no longer as stable as it used to be. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, the proportion of population ageing was quite serious in almost any country. Especially in developed countries, older people account for almost 15 percent of the total. According to United Nations data, the proportion of older people in the world is expected to be close to 25 by 2030, and it is expected to be close to 25 by 2050. The number will rise to 30. (the sixth census shows that the trend of population aging in our country has further accelerated. In the context of the rapid aging of the national population, The problem of imbalance in income and expenditure of social endowment insurance is becoming more and more serious in China. The government departments concerned hope to alleviate the problem of pension payment by delaying the retirement age of insured workers. The vast majority of corporate workers disagree with and do not support the policy intent to delay the retirement age. One important reason is that the current pension scheme does not provide sufficient incentives to delay the retirement age. On the contrary, there may be reverse incentives. The data analysis of 1001 questionnaires from China Health and Old-Age tracking Survey in 2011 and 2013 and 2014 shows that more than 85% of male workers and more than 90% of women are female. Sex workers did not choose to delay retirement. The average retirement age for male workers was 57.36 years. The average retirement age of female workers is only 50.34 years old. This paper uses the level of pension replacement rate and the willingness of individual to delay retirement. The regression results show that there is a negative correlation between individual delayed retirement and pension replacement rate at a significant level of 10%. When the title variable was introduced, the results showed a significant negative correlation of more than 1%. The results show that the age at which individuals actually withdraw from the labour market is not related to the pension replacement rate. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that, when the role of other control variables is discussed, generally speaking, The pension replacement rate of workers who choose to delay retirement will be reduced by 15.2s. among them, the relation between male workers' delayed retirement and pension replacement rate is not significant, but the female workers' delayed retirement will reduce the replacement rate to a greater extent. This shows that today's basic pension system does not encourage workers to delay retirement, but instead provides an incentive for retirees to leave early. The result reflects that the delay in retirement is not in line with the individual wishes and decisions of workers. The current basic old-age pension system has also failed to meet the goal of encouraging delays in the age at which pensions are received, making it difficult to implement the policy of postponing retirement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F842.67

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