本文選題：負(fù)荷預(yù)測 + 電力消費(fèi)　； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：往經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展的時代,電力能源在全球的經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展中起著舉足輕重的作用。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是電力需求增長的主要原因。因此,電力是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重中之重。但是電力建設(shè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不同步性,阻礙了經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。為了保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)平穩(wěn)快速的發(fā)展,電力負(fù)荷飽和點(diǎn)的預(yù)測成為政府,社會各方而關(guān)心的焦點(diǎn)。準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測電力負(fù)荷不僅有助于做出準(zhǔn)確的電力系統(tǒng)規(guī)劃,而且可以掌握電力市場的發(fā)展方向。 本文利用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中的平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和線性回歸的方法,以美國、英國、日本、印度、巴西、中國的電力負(fù)荷為分析對象,從GDP、人口、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的比例與電力負(fù)荷之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究。本文首先對美國、英國、日本、印度、巴西、中國的GDP、人口、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的比例和電力負(fù)荷的平穩(wěn)性進(jìn)行了探討,結(jié)果表明這些值都是平穩(wěn)的。其次對美國、英國、日本、印度、巴西、中國的GDP、人口、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的比例和電力負(fù)荷的之間的因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),發(fā)現(xiàn)各個國家的因果關(guān)系迥異。然后根據(jù)各個國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,利用偏最小二乘法對發(fā)達(dá)國家(例如美國、英國、日本)的GDP、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值占GDP的比例和電力負(fù)荷的之間進(jìn)行回歸分析,同時利用偏最小二乘法對發(fā)展中國家(例如中國、印度、巴西)的GDP、人口和電力負(fù)荷之間進(jìn)行回歸分析,并建立相應(yīng)的方程,總結(jié)出發(fā)達(dá)國家負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型和發(fā)展國家負(fù)荷預(yù)測模型。最后對中國的電力負(fù)荷進(jìn)行預(yù)測。通過定量分析人口、GDP、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和電力負(fù)荷進(jìn)行分析,我們不僅可以預(yù)測電力負(fù)荷,而且可以預(yù)測電力行業(yè)對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。
[Abstract]:In the era of rapid economic development, power and energy play an important role in the economic and social development of the world. Economic development is the main reason for the growth of electricity demand. Therefore, electricity is the most important factor in the economic development of our country. However, the unsynchronization of electric power construction and economic development has hindered the economic development. The prediction of the power load saturation point has become the focus of the government and the social parties. The accurate prediction of the power load not only helps to make the accurate power system planning, but also can grasp the direction of the development of the electricity market.
In this paper, based on the stability test of econometrics, Grainger causality test and linear regression method, the power load of the United States, Britain, Japan, India, Brazil and China is analyzed. The relationship between the proportion of GDP, the population, the third industry value of GDP and the power load is studied. The first of this paper is the United States, Britain, Japan, India, Brazil, China's GDP, population, and third industrial output value account for the proportion of GDP and the stability of power load. The results show that these values are stable. Secondly, the causality between the proportion of the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, India, Brazil, China's GDP, the population, the output value of the third industry and the power load is tested. According to the economic development level of each country, the GDP of the developed countries (such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan), the proportion of the output value of the third industry and the power load of the developed countries (such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan) are analyzed by the partial least square method, and the partial least square method is used for the developing countries (for example, China, for example). GDP, Brazil), the regression analysis between population and power load, and the establishment of the corresponding equations, the developed country load forecasting model and the development of national load forecasting model. Finally, the power load of China is predicted. By quantitative analysis of population, GDP, industrial structure and power load, we can not only predict the power load, but we can not only predict the load of the population, the industrial structure and the power load. Power load, and can predict the impact of the power industry on the national economy and industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F416.61;F224

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本文編號：1989849