發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-05-26 05:02

  本文選題：需求不確定性 + 需求分析與預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《華南理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：信息技術(shù)的高速發(fā)展，已引領(lǐng)我們進(jìn)入經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的時(shí)代，而經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化加劇了產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。另一方面,美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)和歐債危機(jī)的影響造成了整個(gè)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑,且需求的減少進(jìn)一步加劇了同業(yè)之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。企業(yè)要在這場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)中占有一席之地，必須能夠適時(shí)、適量地給客戶提供有價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)。為達(dá)成以上目標(biāo)，許多企業(yè)都致力于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、提高自動(dòng)化程度以提升生產(chǎn)力，同時(shí)努力降低材料采購(gòu)成本及控制庫(kù)存成本。因應(yīng)需求的不確定性，要適時(shí)、適量地提供客戶所需產(chǎn)品及服務(wù)，企業(yè)除了提升自己的生產(chǎn)力之外，也必須能夠?qū)π枨笞龀隹茖W(xué)的分析和預(yù)測(cè)并采用科學(xué)的庫(kù)存控制方法。 庫(kù)存控制是企業(yè)管理的核心工作之一。本文以P公司鼠標(biāo)器產(chǎn)品零部件庫(kù)存管理問題為研究對(duì)象，結(jié)合P公司鼠標(biāo)器產(chǎn)品零部件庫(kù)存管理過程中所面臨的實(shí)際問題，運(yùn)用需求預(yù)測(cè)及庫(kù)存控制相關(guān)理論和方法，提出適合P公司鼠標(biāo)器零部件庫(kù)存管理的方法，解決企業(yè)庫(kù)存管理實(shí)際問題。 本文首先列舉了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者針對(duì)零部件庫(kù)存控制研究的現(xiàn)狀，相比較而言，國(guó)外學(xué)者，特別是日本及美國(guó)在這方面的研究比較早，而且也較成熟。近年來，由于物流成本的不斷上升，庫(kù)存控制已成為影響國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)績(jī)效的重要因素之一。因此，國(guó)內(nèi)也開始涌現(xiàn)出眾多學(xué)者，投身于企業(yè)庫(kù)存控制問題方面的研究。但總體來說，國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)電腦周邊行業(yè)同時(shí)應(yīng)用以下方法進(jìn)行零部件庫(kù)存控制展開研究者尚不多見：應(yīng)用時(shí)間系列做零部件需求預(yù)測(cè)、應(yīng)用ABC分類法對(duì)零部件做分類管理且應(yīng)用供應(yīng)商管理庫(kù)存模式（VMI）做庫(kù)存管理。 其次,通過對(duì)P公司鼠標(biāo)器廠的實(shí)地調(diào)研，了解其需求預(yù)測(cè)及零部件庫(kù)存控制的現(xiàn)狀：零部件需求預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)完全依賴于客戶提供的成品需求預(yù)測(cè)，通過成品BOM結(jié)構(gòu)展開及跑MRP獲得；訂購(gòu)數(shù)量比較隨機(jī)且訂購(gòu)方法單一；供應(yīng)鏈各節(jié)點(diǎn)企業(yè)在庫(kù)存信息交流方面的互動(dòng)很少，庫(kù)存水平高居不下。筆者通過對(duì)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析，了解到P公司在零部件庫(kù)存管理方面存在以下問題：需求預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率低、零部件缺乏分類管理且采購(gòu)策略單一、缺乏與供應(yīng)商在供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)作方面的密切配合。 再者，針對(duì)需求預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確率低之問題，通過對(duì)P公司的需求形態(tài)進(jìn)行分析，筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)其需求呈現(xiàn)平穩(wěn)時(shí)間序列分布特點(diǎn)。通過應(yīng)用簡(jiǎn)單移動(dòng)平均法對(duì)2012年的需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)，準(zhǔn)確率達(dá)92.92%。 最后，針對(duì)零部件缺乏分類管理且采購(gòu)策略單一及缺乏與供應(yīng)商在供應(yīng)鏈協(xié)作方面的密切配合等問題，筆者應(yīng)用ABC分類法對(duì)P公司鼠標(biāo)器零部件進(jìn)行分類，，并給出算例說明如何應(yīng)用定量訂購(gòu)法及定期訂購(gòu)法分別對(duì)AB及C類零部件實(shí)施庫(kù)存管理，并進(jìn)一步提出應(yīng)用供應(yīng)商管理庫(kù)存法對(duì)A類及部分B類零部件進(jìn)行庫(kù)存控制。希望該研究能為其他企業(yè)的零部件庫(kù)存控制提供參考。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of information technology has led us into the era of economic globalization, and economic globalization has intensified industrial competition. On the other hand, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the European debt crisis caused the whole world economy to decline, and the reduction of demand further intensified the competition among the peers. In order to have a place in this competition, enterprises must be able to provide their customers with competitive products and services in a timely and appropriate manner. To achieve these goals, many enterprises are committed to technological innovation, increased automation to improve productivity, while efforts to reduce material procurement costs and control inventory costs. In response to the uncertainty of demand, enterprises must be able to make scientific analysis and prediction of demand and adopt scientific inventory control methods in order to provide the products and services required by customers in a timely and appropriate manner, in addition to improving their own productivity. Inventory control is one of the core tasks of enterprise management. This paper takes the stock management of the mouse parts of P Company as the research object, combining with the actual problems in the process of the stock management of the mouse parts of P company, using the theories and methods of demand forecasting and inventory control. This paper puts forward a method for stock management of mouse parts in P Company to solve the practical problems of inventory management in enterprises. This paper first lists the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of parts inventory control, compared with the foreign scholars, especially Japan and the United States in this area of research is early, but also more mature. In recent years, due to the rising logistics costs, inventory control has become one of the important factors affecting the performance of domestic enterprises. Therefore, there are many scholars in our country who devote themselves to the research of enterprise inventory control. But generally speaking, domestic scholars on the computer peripheral industries at the same time using the following methods to carry out inventory control researchers have not seen: the use of time series to predict the demand for parts, The ABC classification method is used to classify the parts and the VMI model is used to manage the inventory. Secondly, through the field investigation of the mouse factory of P Company, we can find out the current situation of demand forecasting and parts inventory control: the forecasting data of parts demand totally depend on the demand forecast of finished products provided by customers. The order quantity is random and the ordering method is single. The exchange of inventory information between the enterprises in each node of the supply chain is very little and the inventory level is high. By analyzing the present situation, the author finds out that P company has the following problems in the management of spare parts inventory: the accuracy of demand prediction is low, the parts lack of classified management, and the purchasing strategy is single. Lack of close coordination with suppliers in supply chain collaboration. Furthermore, aiming at the problem of low accuracy of demand forecasting, the author finds that the demand of P company presents the characteristics of stable time series distribution through the analysis of the demand pattern of P Company. By using the simple moving average method to forecast the demand in 2012, the accuracy is 92.92%. Finally, aiming at the problems of lack of classification management, single purchasing strategy and lack of close cooperation with suppliers in supply chain cooperation, the author applies ABC classification method to classify the mouse parts of P Company. An example is given to illustrate how to use the quantitative ordering method and the periodic ordering method to carry out inventory management for AB and C parts respectively. Furthermore, the application of Vendor Management inventory method to the inventory control of Class A and part B parts is put forward. It is hoped that this study can provide reference for other enterprises in the control of spare parts inventory.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F274;F426.6

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本文編號(hào)：1936039