本文關(guān)鍵詞： “中等收入陷阱” 人力資本 老齡化 城鎮(zhèn)化 人口政策　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：2010年,我國(guó)人均國(guó)民收入達(dá)到4340美元,被世界銀行劃為中高收入國(guó)家。近年來(lái),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入調(diào)整轉(zhuǎn)換期,原有的人力資源優(yōu)勢(shì)不斷消失,勞動(dòng)年齡人口占比下降、人口老齡化加速,人力資本積累不足等問(wèn)題日益突出,使我國(guó)存在滑入“中等收入陷阱”的可能性。為此,有必要從理論上探討人力資本、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、人口流動(dòng)與“中等收入陷阱”的關(guān)系,并分析在現(xiàn)行政策下人口發(fā)展面臨的問(wèn)題對(duì)跨越“中等收入陷阱”形成的障礙,進(jìn)而提出跨越“中等收入陷阱”的人口政策調(diào)整方向。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入中等收入階段,人力資本積累有助于提高全要素生產(chǎn)率,并通過(guò)創(chuàng)新研發(fā)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)發(fā)揮顯著拉動(dòng)作用;勞動(dòng)年齡人口比重高但緩慢下降,將通過(guò)儲(chǔ)蓄率與資本邊際效率下降逐漸減弱對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn),人口老齡化加深會(huì)通過(guò)消費(fèi)不足、勞動(dòng)力參與率下降對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)不利影響;而城鎮(zhèn)化有利于資源優(yōu)化配置、緩解收入分配差距以及促進(jìn)全要素生產(chǎn)率的提高�？傮w看,加快人力資本積累、適度人口城鎮(zhèn)化將對(duì)跨越“中等收入陷阱”產(chǎn)生積極影響,勞動(dòng)力供給減少以及人口老齡化將增加落入“中等收入陷阱”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。從我國(guó)現(xiàn)行的計(jì)劃生育政策、勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)分割政策、人力資本投資、城鎮(zhèn)化戰(zhàn)略以及養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度來(lái)看,這些政策在實(shí)施過(guò)程中,對(duì)人口發(fā)展形成了重要的影響,包括勞動(dòng)力供給減少、人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)老化、就業(yè)歧視問(wèn)題突出、人力資本積累不足、不完全城鎮(zhèn)化、養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)金收支不平衡且影響低收入人群再分配導(dǎo)致公平性不足,等等,這些問(wèn)題成為我國(guó)跨越“中等收入陷阱”的障礙。針對(duì)現(xiàn)行政策下人口發(fā)展面臨的問(wèn)題對(duì)跨越“中等收入陷阱”形成的障礙因素,本文認(rèn)為,應(yīng)以改善人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)為目標(biāo)適時(shí)調(diào)整生育政策,以促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力資源優(yōu)化配置為目標(biāo)調(diào)整就業(yè)政策,以提高創(chuàng)新能力為目標(biāo)促進(jìn)人力資本投資,以大城市和城市群為主體推進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化,以促進(jìn)公平為目標(biāo)積極推進(jìn)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度改革。
[Abstract]:In 2010, China's per capita national income reached US $4, 340, which was designated by the World Bank as a medium and high income country. In recent years, China's economic growth has slowed down, and its economic development has entered a period of adjustment and transformation. The original advantages of human resources continue to disappear, the proportion of working-age population is declining, the aging population is accelerating, the accumulation of human capital is insufficient and so on. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss theoretically the relationship between human capital, population age structure, population mobility and "middle income trap". It also analyzes the obstacles that the population development faces in the current policy to overcome the "middle-income trap". And then put forward the direction of population policy adjustment over the "middle income trap". The economic development steps into the middle income stage, the human capital accumulation helps to improve the total factor productivity. And through innovative research and development to play a significant role in economic growth; The high but slow decline of the working-age population will gradually weaken the contribution to economic growth through the decline of savings rate and marginal efficiency of capital, and the deepening of population aging will be through insufficient consumption. The decline in the labour force participation rate has a negative impact on economic growth; Urbanization is conducive to the optimal allocation of resources, ease the income distribution gap and promote the increase of total factor productivity. Overall, accelerate the accumulation of human capital. Moderate population urbanization will have a positive impact on crossing the "middle-income trap", and the reduction of labor supply and the aging of the population will increase the risk of falling into the "middle-income trap". Labor market segmentation policies, human capital investment, urbanization strategy and pension insurance system, these policies in the implementation process, has formed an important impact on population development, including the reduction of labor supply. The aging of population age structure, employment discrimination, insufficient accumulation of human capital, incomplete urbanization, unbalanced income and expenditure of pension insurance and impact on the redistribution of low-income people lead to lack of fairness, and so on. These problems have become the obstacle of our country to cross the "middle income trap". In view of the problem of population development under the current policy, the author thinks that the obstacle factor of crossing the "middle income trap" is caused by the problem that population development faces under the current policy. To improve the age structure of the population should be the goal of timely adjustment of fertility policy, to promote the optimal allocation of labor resources as the goal to adjust employment policies, with the aim of improving innovation capacity to promote human capital investment. Taking big cities and urban agglomerations as the main body to promote the new urbanization and to promote equity as the goal to actively promote the pension insurance system reform.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C924.21

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