發(fā)布時間：2018-11-06 13:39

【摘要】：隨著全球電信業(yè)務不斷走向自由化和國際化,各國電信業(yè)市場競爭日益激烈。在我國,電信業(yè)各運營商為了爭奪更多的客戶,除了通過簡單的價格競爭以外,還不斷推出新套餐和新業(yè)務來優(yōu)先獲取客戶資源。行業(yè)之間競爭不斷加劇,雙卡情況越來越嚴峻,這也在很大程度上加大了客戶的不穩(wěn)定性；另外,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術的快速發(fā)展對傳統(tǒng)的電信業(yè)務也產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響,分流了大量電信用戶。有相關研究表明,挽留一位老客戶比發(fā)展一位新客戶花費更低的成本但得到的收益卻更高,而要從競爭對手手里挖出客戶更是難上加難。面對當前的市場競爭形勢和市場態(tài)勢,電信運營商必須在發(fā)展新客戶的同時,全面開展客戶流失管理,有效地開展存量運營,穩(wěn)固自己的現(xiàn)有客戶,不斷完善客戶針對性營銷服務策略,通過客戶關系管理的不斷實踐來挽留客戶,從而實現(xiàn)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟效益和社會效益的最大化。目前,電信行業(yè)的客戶流失管理工作目前還存在一些不足：(1)預警時客戶往往已經(jīng)真實離網(wǎng),無法進行挽留；(2)沒有進一步分析客戶離網(wǎng)的真正原因和客戶是否能留得��；(3)缺乏有針對性的挽留工作。 籠統(tǒng)的挽留已經(jīng)不能有效地對客戶進行挽留,必須根據(jù)客戶離網(wǎng)的真正原因,及各種行為習慣、偏好等信息采取有針對性的挽留措施,真正的投其所好,才能更好的對客戶進行挽留,減少客戶流失。為滿足這些需求,本文的主要研究內(nèi)容有： (1)通過閱讀大量有關數(shù)據(jù)挖掘在客戶流失管理中的應用的相關文獻,指出當前的研究所存在的不足及未來的發(fā)展趨勢,并且對客戶關系管理的理論知識和數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的主要分類算法進行了系統(tǒng)的介紹。 (2)利用Logistic方法對Z市移動客戶的價值流失和離網(wǎng)流失分階段進行建模分析,同時對客戶流失規(guī)律進行分析后設定相關規(guī)則對客戶的流失進行監(jiān)控,模型和規(guī)則雙管齊下,使預測更全面,最終得到將要流失客戶的名單。 (3)針對將要流失的客戶名單,分析客戶流失的原因,并建立挽留機會模型,計算客戶挽留成功的概率。 (4)最后從營銷的角度出發(fā),結合客戶的流失原因,對可挽留的客戶制定合適的營銷計劃。 文章通過Z市移動通信公司客戶流失管理的實證分析,為數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術在電信行業(yè)的客戶關系管理和客戶行為分析的應用提供了有益參考,并且對電信行業(yè)發(fā)展和維護與客戶的良好關系,增強企業(yè)的競爭力也有較大的現(xiàn)實意義。
[Abstract]:With the liberalization and internationalization of global telecom business, the competition of telecom market is becoming more and more fierce. In China, telecom operators in order to compete for more customers, in addition to simple price competition, but also continue to introduce new packages and new services to obtain customer resources. Competition between industries is increasing, the situation of double cards is becoming more and more serious, which to a large extent increases the instability of customers; In addition, the rapid development of Internet technology has a great impact on the traditional telecommunications services, diverting a large number of telecom users. Studies have shown that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to develop a new one, but the benefits are higher, and it is even more difficult to extract customers from competitors. In the face of the current market competition and market situation, telecom operators must, while developing new customers, comprehensively carry out customer churn management, effectively carry out stock operations, and stabilize their existing customers. Improve the customer targeted marketing service strategy, through the continuous practice of customer relationship management to retain customers, so as to maximize the economic and social benefits of enterprises. At present, there are still some shortcomings in the management of customer churn in telecommunication industry: (1) customers are often out of the net when warning, unable to retain; (2) lack of further analysis of the real reasons for the customer to leave the network and whether the customer can stay; (3) lack of targeted retention. The general retention has not been able to effectively retain the customer, must be based on the real reasons for the customer off the net, and a variety of behavior habits, preferences and other information to take targeted retention measures, In order to better retain customers, reduce the loss of customers. In order to meet these needs, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) by reading a large number of related documents on the application of data mining in customer churn management, the paper points out the shortcomings of the current research and the future development trend. The theoretical knowledge of customer relationship management and the main classification algorithms of data mining are introduced systematically. (2) modeling and analyzing the value loss and off-net loss of mobile customers in Z city by using Logistic method. At the same time, after analyzing the law of customer churn, the relevant rules are set up to monitor the loss of customers. Make the forecast more comprehensive and finally get the list of customers that will be lost. (3) based on the list of customers that will be lost, the reasons of customer turnover are analyzed, and the retention opportunity model is established to calculate the probability of customer retention success. (4) finally, from the marketing point of view, combined with the reason of customer loss, we can make appropriate marketing plan for the customer who can be retained. Through the empirical analysis of customer churn management in Z City Mobile Communication Company, this paper provides a useful reference for the application of data mining technology in customer relationship management and customer behavior analysis in telecommunication industry. It is also of great practical significance to the development and maintenance of telecommunication industry and the maintenance of good relationship with customers and the enhancement of the competitiveness of enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F274;F626

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本文編號：2314437