【摘要】：隨著全球電信業(yè)務(wù)不斷走向自由化和國(guó)際化,各國(guó)電信業(yè)市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)日益激烈。在我國(guó),電信業(yè)各運(yùn)營(yíng)商為了爭(zhēng)奪更多的客戶,除了通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)單的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以外,還不斷推出新套餐和新業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)優(yōu)先獲取客戶資源。行業(yè)之間競(jìng)爭(zhēng)不斷加劇,雙卡情況越來(lái)越嚴(yán)峻,這也在很大程度上加大了客戶的不穩(wěn)定性；另外,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展對(duì)傳統(tǒng)的電信業(yè)務(wù)也產(chǎn)生了巨大的影響,分流了大量電信用戶。有相關(guān)研究表明,挽留一位老客戶比發(fā)展一位新客戶花費(fèi)更低的成本但得到的收益卻更高,而要從競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手手里挖出客戶更是難上加難。面對(duì)當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)形勢(shì)和市場(chǎng)態(tài)勢(shì),電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商必須在發(fā)展新客戶的同時(shí),全面開(kāi)展客戶流失管理,有效地開(kāi)展存量運(yùn)營(yíng),穩(wěn)固自己的現(xiàn)有客戶,不斷完善客戶針對(duì)性營(yíng)銷(xiāo)服務(wù)策略,通過(guò)客戶關(guān)系管理的不斷實(shí)踐來(lái)挽留客戶,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)效益和社會(huì)效益的最大化。目前,電信行業(yè)的客戶流失管理工作目前還存在一些不足：(1)預(yù)警時(shí)客戶往往已經(jīng)真實(shí)離網(wǎng),無(wú)法進(jìn)行挽留；(2)沒(méi)有進(jìn)一步分析客戶離網(wǎng)的真正原因和客戶是否能留得�。�(3)缺乏有針對(duì)性的挽留工作。 籠統(tǒng)的挽留已經(jīng)不能有效地對(duì)客戶進(jìn)行挽留,必須根據(jù)客戶離網(wǎng)的真正原因,及各種行為習(xí)慣、偏好等信息采取有針對(duì)性的挽留措施,真正的投其所好,才能更好的對(duì)客戶進(jìn)行挽留,減少客戶流失。為滿足這些需求,本文的主要研究?jī)?nèi)容有： (1)通過(guò)閱讀大量有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)挖掘在客戶流失管理中的應(yīng)用的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn),指出當(dāng)前的研究所存在的不足及未來(lái)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),并且對(duì)客戶關(guān)系管理的理論知識(shí)和數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的主要分類(lèi)算法進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的介紹。 (2)利用Logistic方法對(duì)Z市移動(dòng)客戶的價(jià)值流失和離網(wǎng)流失分階段進(jìn)行建模分析,同時(shí)對(duì)客戶流失規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析后設(shè)定相關(guān)規(guī)則對(duì)客戶的流失進(jìn)行監(jiān)控,模型和規(guī)則雙管齊下,使預(yù)測(cè)更全面,最終得到將要流失客戶的名單。 (3)針對(duì)將要流失的客戶名單,分析客戶流失的原因,并建立挽留機(jī)會(huì)模型,計(jì)算客戶挽留成功的概率。 (4)最后從營(yíng)銷(xiāo)的角度出發(fā),結(jié)合客戶的流失原因,對(duì)可挽留的客戶制定合適的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)計(jì)劃。 文章通過(guò)Z市移動(dòng)通信公司客戶流失管理的實(shí)證分析,為數(shù)據(jù)挖掘技術(shù)在電信行業(yè)的客戶關(guān)系管理和客戶行為分析的應(yīng)用提供了有益參考,并且對(duì)電信行業(yè)發(fā)展和維護(hù)與客戶的良好關(guān)系,增強(qiáng)企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力也有較大的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:With the liberalization and internationalization of global telecom business, the competition of telecom market is becoming more and more fierce. In China, telecom operators in order to compete for more customers, in addition to simple price competition, but also continue to introduce new packages and new services to obtain customer resources. Competition between industries is increasing, the situation of double cards is becoming more and more serious, which to a large extent increases the instability of customers; In addition, the rapid development of Internet technology has a great impact on the traditional telecommunications services, diverting a large number of telecom users. Studies have shown that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to develop a new one, but the benefits are higher, and it is even more difficult to extract customers from competitors. In the face of the current market competition and market situation, telecom operators must, while developing new customers, comprehensively carry out customer churn management, effectively carry out stock operations, and stabilize their existing customers. Improve the customer targeted marketing service strategy, through the continuous practice of customer relationship management to retain customers, so as to maximize the economic and social benefits of enterprises. At present, there are still some shortcomings in the management of customer churn in telecommunication industry: (1) customers are often out of the net when warning, unable to retain; (2) lack of further analysis of the real reasons for the customer to leave the network and whether the customer can stay; (3) lack of targeted retention. The general retention has not been able to effectively retain the customer, must be based on the real reasons for the customer off the net, and a variety of behavior habits, preferences and other information to take targeted retention measures, In order to better retain customers, reduce the loss of customers. In order to meet these needs, the main research contents of this paper are as follows: (1) by reading a large number of related documents on the application of data mining in customer churn management, the paper points out the shortcomings of the current research and the future development trend. The theoretical knowledge of customer relationship management and the main classification algorithms of data mining are introduced systematically. (2) modeling and analyzing the value loss and off-net loss of mobile customers in Z city by using Logistic method. At the same time, after analyzing the law of customer churn, the relevant rules are set up to monitor the loss of customers. Make the forecast more comprehensive and finally get the list of customers that will be lost. (3) based on the list of customers that will be lost, the reasons of customer turnover are analyzed, and the retention opportunity model is established to calculate the probability of customer retention success. (4) finally, from the marketing point of view, combined with the reason of customer loss, we can make appropriate marketing plan for the customer who can be retained. Through the empirical analysis of customer churn management in Z City Mobile Communication Company, this paper provides a useful reference for the application of data mining technology in customer relationship management and customer behavior analysis in telecommunication industry. It is also of great practical significance to the development and maintenance of telecommunication industry and the maintenance of good relationship with customers and the enhancement of the competitiveness of enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F274;F626

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