【摘要】：自改革開放以來,中國經(jīng)濟取得了令人矚目的高速發(fā)展,但是縱觀這三十多年來,中國經(jīng)濟雖然在持續(xù)增長但也一直起起落落。GDP同比增長率最高達1993年1季度的15.4%,最低僅為2009年1季度的6.2%。如此大幅度的波動究竟是什么原因造成的呢?經(jīng)濟學理論認為經(jīng)濟波動主要是由外生沖擊所引致的,如技術(shù)沖擊、需求沖擊、貨幣政策沖擊等外生沖擊影響著各個宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的變化,也就是我們看到的經(jīng)濟波動現(xiàn)象。在面對經(jīng)濟波動時我國也采取了相應的措施來干預宏觀經(jīng)濟的運行。最為典型的一個事實就是,2008年全球金融危機爆發(fā)給我國帶來嚴重經(jīng)濟衰退威脅,我國政府實施了4萬億財政擴張計劃與寬松的貨幣政策等經(jīng)濟政策予以應對。近幾年來,我國一直采用積極的財政政策和穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策,穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策在擴大內(nèi)需、推進經(jīng)濟向均衡狀態(tài)發(fā)展等方面功不可沒。對于當前中國經(jīng)濟來說,哪種貨幣政策工具是有效的?本文從新凱恩斯主義視角出發(fā),構(gòu)造了存在三種類型的調(diào)整成本(價格調(diào)整成本、資本調(diào)整成本和勞動調(diào)整成本)約束特征的動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型(DSGE模型),并試圖從一個包含四種沖擊,即反映供給的技術(shù)沖擊、消費者貨幣需求量的貨幣需求沖擊、消費者需求的消費偏好沖擊、政府的貨幣供給政策沖擊來分析我國經(jīng)濟波動問題,針對我國1996—2015年的經(jīng)濟波動現(xiàn)狀對政府的最優(yōu)貨幣政策工具進行了比較。DSGE模型中包括四個經(jīng)濟部門:代表性家庭、最終產(chǎn)品廠商、中間產(chǎn)品廠商和廣義政府,引入調(diào)整成本約束,分析在四種不同類型的外生沖擊下,不同的調(diào)整成本對宏觀經(jīng)濟變量的影響機制,以及對中國經(jīng)濟波動產(chǎn)生影響的關(guān)鍵沖擊,并在此基礎(chǔ)上研究調(diào)整成本和外生沖擊下的最優(yōu)貨幣政策工具(包括數(shù)量型工具和價格型工具),對中國貨幣政策的有效運行和經(jīng)濟平穩(wěn)發(fā)展提供參考意義。本文的研究基于動態(tài)隨機一般均衡模型框架,我們得出以下結(jié)論:調(diào)整成本約束的存在是我國宏觀經(jīng)濟的一個顯著特征,而且這些外生成本約束在一定程度上抑制了我國經(jīng)濟的增長和遏制了經(jīng)濟的衰退;無論是長期還是短期,貨幣需求沖擊和消費偏好沖擊對經(jīng)濟波動的影響都要明顯高于技術(shù)沖擊和貨幣供給政策沖擊;利率規(guī)則下的社會福利損失要小于貨幣供應量規(guī)則下的社會福利損失,因此利率規(guī)則比貨幣供應量規(guī)則對我國的宏觀經(jīng)濟調(diào)控更為有效。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has made remarkable and rapid development, but throughout the past three decades, although the Chinese economy has continued to grow, it has also been ups and downs. GDP growth rate reached 15.4% in the first quarter of 1993. The minimum was 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009. What is the cause of such a large fluctuation? Economic theory holds that economic fluctuations are mainly caused by exogenous shocks, such as technological shocks, demand shocks, monetary policy shocks and other exogenous shocks that affect the changes of various macroeconomic variables, that is, the phenomenon of economic fluctuations we see. In the face of economic fluctuations, China has also taken corresponding measures to intervene in macroeconomic operation. The most typical fact is that the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 has brought serious economic recession threat to our country, and our government has implemented 4 trillion fiscal expansion plan and loose monetary policy to deal with it. In recent years, China has been adopting active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, and prudent monetary policy has played an important role in expanding domestic demand and promoting the development of the economy to a balanced state. Which monetary policy tool is effective for the current Chinese economy? From the perspective of neo-Keynesianism, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model) with three types of adjustment costs (price adjustment costs, capital adjustment costs and labor adjustment costs) constraints. It also tries to analyze the problem of economic fluctuation in China from the perspective of four kinds of shocks, namely, the technological shock reflecting supply, the impact of money demand on consumer money demand, the impact on consumer demand and the impact on the government's money supply policy. In view of the present situation of economic fluctuations in China from 1996 to 2015, this paper compares the optimal monetary policy tools of the government. DSGE model includes four economic sectors: representative households, final product manufacturers, intermediate product manufacturers and the broad government. This paper introduces the adjustment cost constraint, and analyzes the influence mechanism of different adjustment cost on macroeconomic variables and the key impact on China's economic fluctuation under four different types of exogenous shocks. On this basis, the optimal monetary policy tools (including quantitative tools and price tools) under adjustment cost and exogenous impact are studied, which provides reference significance for the effective operation of China's monetary policy and the stable development of economy. Based on the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, we draw the following conclusions: the existence of adjusting cost constraints is a significant feature of macroeconomic in China. Moreover, to a certain extent, these exogenous cost constraints inhibit the growth of China's economy and contain the recession of the economy. Whether in the long term or in the short term, the impact of money demand shock and consumption preference shock on economic fluctuation is significantly higher than that of technology shock and money supply policy impact. The social welfare loss under the interest rate rule is smaller than the social welfare loss under the money supply rule, so the interest rate rule is more effective to the macroeconomic regulation and control of our country than the money supply rule.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F124

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