本文關(guān)鍵詞：大型氣田投資經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)及實(shí)證研究　出處：《成都理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 氣田開發(fā) 經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng) 費(fèi)用預(yù)測 經(jīng)濟(jì)效益 社會環(huán)境效益

【摘要】：作為世界三大傳統(tǒng)能源之一的天然氣因?yàn)槠洚a(chǎn)量穩(wěn)定、全球儲量高、開采成本較為固定等一系列優(yōu)點(diǎn)成為備受矚目的能源生力軍。但氣田開發(fā)資金一次性投入大、技術(shù)密集、風(fēng)險程度高,氣田開發(fā)方案的合理性是氣田開發(fā)最終經(jīng)濟(jì)效益的保障,進(jìn)行氣田開發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價可以提高氣田開發(fā)技術(shù)水平、規(guī)避投資風(fēng)險、提高投資效率等。氣田開發(fā)投資經(jīng)濟(jì)評價在大型氣田項(xiàng)目開發(fā)中舉足輕重、至關(guān)重要,其擔(dān)負(fù)的時代責(zé)任也更加凸顯。通過對比國內(nèi)外氣田經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展,并具體分析我國當(dāng)前氣田開發(fā)投資項(xiàng)目評價系統(tǒng),包括氣田開發(fā)投資經(jīng)濟(jì)評價的基本思路、主要方法和參照指標(biāo),發(fā)現(xiàn)存在許多不完善之處,如只進(jìn)行技術(shù)和投資的對比來比選方案并進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目開發(fā),或者在優(yōu)選了方案后進(jìn)行簡單的財務(wù)評價,而導(dǎo)致不能為氣田開發(fā)建設(shè)的可行性提供關(guān)鍵支撐。在對氣田經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行研究后,利用系統(tǒng)觀和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展觀指導(dǎo)進(jìn)行大型氣田經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)的完善,完善的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)包括確定評價方法和參數(shù)選擇、項(xiàng)目投資概算、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析(盈利能力和風(fēng)險管控)以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益分析。本文重點(diǎn)在項(xiàng)目投資概算部分引入現(xiàn)代成本費(fèi)用估算方法,在經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析部分引入不確定性和風(fēng)險評估,以及將社會和環(huán)境效益引入評價系統(tǒng)并構(gòu)建社會經(jīng)濟(jì)及生態(tài)環(huán)境的評價指標(biāo)體系�？偨Y(jié)本文,主要獲得如下成果：(1)構(gòu)建了以系統(tǒng)論和協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展理論為指導(dǎo),以系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)綜合評價為主要手段的研究框架。用可持續(xù)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展觀揭示了能源消耗與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的矛盾,從宏觀的角度入手,探究了氣田開發(fā)過程中經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)的作用機(jī)理,為構(gòu)建完善的分系統(tǒng)多層次的氣田開發(fā)項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價系統(tǒng)奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。(2)將系統(tǒng)層次分析的原理和方法引入到氣田開發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價體系的研究中,經(jīng)過研究國際先進(jìn)油氣田開發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價經(jīng)驗(yàn)并對比我國研究存在的不足,完善與規(guī)范了現(xiàn)有的氣田開發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價框架。完善后的氣田開發(fā)投資經(jīng)濟(jì)評價理論框架中納入了風(fēng)險防范與環(huán)境效應(yīng)等分析,具體包括四個層次：項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價方法及參數(shù)取值；項(xiàng)目投資額估算；經(jīng)濟(jì)效益分析(盈利能力和風(fēng)險管控)以及社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益分析。(3)在完善評價框架的基礎(chǔ)上深入研究了重點(diǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)評價改進(jìn)項(xiàng)目,包括引入現(xiàn)代成本管理估算方法對項(xiàng)目費(fèi)用進(jìn)行估算、在傳統(tǒng)單純盈利效益分析的基礎(chǔ)上引入方案不確定性及風(fēng)險分析、考慮氣田經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展并引入社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益分析。(4)對蘇里格氣田主力氣藏的沉積相、亞相、微相、沉積演化規(guī)律進(jìn)行研究。從沉積相劃分標(biāo)志著手,系統(tǒng)劃分了蘇里格氣田的沉積微相類型,認(rèn)為研究區(qū)山1-盒8段儲層整體為處于潮濕沼澤背景下距物源有一定距離的砂質(zhì)辮狀河～三角洲沉積體系,主要劃分出心灘、河道(分流河道)充填、泛濫平原和分流河道間洼地4種微相類型。(5)從儲層巖石學(xué)、物性及孔隙結(jié)構(gòu)特征等幾方面研究蘇里格氣田的儲層特征。通過分析認(rèn)為,蘇里格氣田主力產(chǎn)層盒8段和山1段儲層物性有一定的差別,儲層孔隙類型多、物性較復(fù)雜。(6)根據(jù)蘇里格氣田某采氣廠的開發(fā)規(guī)劃確定生產(chǎn)規(guī)模及產(chǎn)能,通過分析產(chǎn)量逐年自然遞減的規(guī)律,綜合設(shè)計(jì)了三套具體的穩(wěn)產(chǎn)開發(fā)方案：第一種方案,穩(wěn)產(chǎn)期8年,遞減期7年；第二種方案,穩(wěn)產(chǎn)期10年,遞減期6年；第三種方案,穩(wěn)產(chǎn)期12年,遞減期5年。(7)針對氣田特點(diǎn),對項(xiàng)目費(fèi)用估算時采用現(xiàn)代成本管理估算方法,具體包括作業(yè)成本法、數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)法和BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)法等。并對蘇里格氣田某采氣廠的成本費(fèi)用進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,并證明采用現(xiàn)代成本管理估算方法將使費(fèi)用評估結(jié)果更為合理,進(jìn)一步提高后續(xù)經(jīng)濟(jì)評價結(jié)果的可信度。(8)在進(jìn)行方案效益分析時,在傳統(tǒng)單純盈利效益分析的基礎(chǔ)上引入方案不確定性及風(fēng)險分析。為了使評價結(jié)果所提供的信息更能為決策者所利用,本文引入了概率樹和蒙特卡洛模擬方法,采用蒙特卡洛等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型,利用歷史資料數(shù)據(jù)的回歸,從而盡可能地模擬出未來可能出現(xiàn)的所有結(jié)果的分布情況,利用概率論的思想來測算出未來不確定結(jié)果的期望值。本文對蘇里格氣田某采氣廠進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究,對可能的幾種開采方案利用改進(jìn)的方法分析,提出了評價結(jié)果及相關(guān)建議。(9)在完善經(jīng)濟(jì)評價體系時引入了社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境效益分析。本文通過構(gòu)建天然氣投資的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)和生態(tài)環(huán)境的評價指標(biāo)體系對大型氣田投資的社會經(jīng)濟(jì)與生態(tài)環(huán)境效益進(jìn)行評價。并對蘇里格氣田某采氣廠投資進(jìn)行了生態(tài)環(huán)境效益的實(shí)證分析。
[Abstract]:As one of the three largest traditional energy sources in the world, natural gas has become a high-energy source of energy because of its advantages such as stable production, high global reserves and fixed cost. But the field development funds of large one-time investment, technology intensive, high degree of risk, rationality of field development plan is the ultimate guarantee of the economic benefits of gas field development, gas field development can improve the level of technology and economic evaluation of gas field development to avoid investment risks and improve investment efficiency. The investment economic evaluation of gas field development is very important and important in the development of large gas field projects, and its responsibility for the times is also more prominent. Through the development of domestic gas field economic evaluation system, and analyzes the evaluation system of China's current investment in gas field development project, the basic ideas, including investment and economic evaluation of gas field development methods and the main reference index, found that there are many imperfections, such as contrast only technology and investment to project selection and project development. Or simple financial evaluation in the optimization scheme, which provides the feasibility of gas field development and construction of the key support is not. Study on the theory of gas field economic evaluation system, improve the use of system concept and the concept of coordinated development guidance for large gas field economic evaluation system, evaluation methods and parameter selection, project investment budget and economic benefits include determining economic evaluation system (profitability and risk management) and the analysis of social economy and ecological environment benefit. This paper focuses on introducing the modern cost estimation method in the part of project investment budgetary estimate, introducing uncertainty and risk assessment into the economic benefit analysis part, introducing the social and environmental benefits into the evaluation system, and constructing the evaluation index system of social economy and ecological environment. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) a research framework based on system theory and coordinated development theory and systematic coordination and comprehensive evaluation is constructed. With the sustainable development view reveals the contradiction between energy consumption and economic development, from a macro point of view, to explore the mechanism of economic evaluation system in the process of gas field development, which laid a theoretical foundation for the economic evaluation system of gas field development project construction and improve the system of multi-level. (2) the principles and methods of system level analysis are introduced into the research of economic evaluation system of gas field development. After studying the experience of international advanced oil and gas field development and comparing the shortcomings of our research, we have perfected and standardized the existing economic evaluation framework for gas field development. The theory of economic evaluation of gas field development investment after the improvement into the analysis of risk prevention and environmental effects, including four levels: project economic evaluation method and parameters estimation; project investment; economic benefit analysis (profitability and risk management) and the analysis of social economy and ecological environment benefit. (3) based on perfecting the evaluation framework of the in-depth study on the economic evaluation of key improvement projects, including the introduction of modern cost management, analysis is introduced to estimate the uncertainties and risks, scheme based on traditional profit benefit analysis consider the field of economic and social economic environment sustainable development and the introduction of social economy and ecology environmental benefit analysis of the project cost. (4) the sedimentary facies, subfacies, microfacies and sedimentary evolution of the main gas reservoirs in the Sulige gas field are studied. From the division of sedimentary facies marks to the system is divided into sedimentary microfacies in Sulige gas field, it is concluded that the 1- box 8 reservoir as a whole in the sandy braided river to damp swamp background from the source of a certain distance from the delta sedimentary system, mainly divided into the heart of Beach River (distributary channel) filling flood plain and distributary channel between depression and 4 kinds of microfacies. (5) the reservoir characteristics of the Sulige gas field are studied from the aspects of reservoir petrology, physical properties and pore structure characteristics. According to the analysis, there are certain differences in the physical properties of the 8 and 1 reservoirs of the main producing layer of the Sulige gas field, and the reservoir has many pore types and complex physical properties. (6) determine the production scale and production capacity according to a gas plant in Sulige gas field development planning, through the analysis of the natural law of diminishing yield year by year, the comprehensive design of the three sets of concrete scheme of developing: the first scheme, the stable period of 8 years, declining period of 7 years; second, the stable production period of 10 years, declining stage 6 years; third, stable production period of 12 years, 5 years of decline. (7) according to the characteristics of gas field, the modern cost management estimation method is adopted for project cost estimation, including activity cost method, data envelopment analysis method and BP neural network method. The cost and cost of a gas production plant in Sulige gas field is empirically studied, and it is proved that the modern cost management estimation method will make the cost assessment result more reasonable and further improve the credibility of subsequent economic evaluation results. (8) the scheme uncertainty and risk analysis are introduced on the basis of the traditional profit benefit analysis. In order to make the evaluation results provide more information can be used by decision makers, this paper introduces probability tree and Monte Carlo simulation method, Monte Carlo, econometric model, using regression history data, so as to simulate the distribution of the possible future, using probability theory to measure calculate the expected future uncertainty value. This paper makes an empirical study of a gas production plant in Sulige gas field, and puts forward the evaluation results and related suggestions for the analysis of several possible mining plans using the improved method. (9) in the improvement of the economic evaluation system, the social and economic and ecological environmental benefits are introduced. In this paper, the evaluation of the social economy and the ecological environment of natural gas investment
【學(xué)位授予單位】：成都理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F406.7;F426.22

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