【摘要】：本文主要是基于金融視角研究我國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響因素及穩(wěn)定策略。大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的波動(dòng)直接關(guān)系到人民的切身利益及國(guó)家的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，而近年來(lái)我國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品頻繁波動(dòng)不再是由供求不均導(dǎo)致，更多的是受金融等因素影響，因此非常值得關(guān)注。本文首先綜合現(xiàn)有關(guān)于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的理論，，如蛛網(wǎng)理論、期貨理論及農(nóng)業(yè)保護(hù)理論等，在總結(jié)及借鑒前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，分析大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的形成機(jī)制，為下文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。其次，結(jié)合目前中國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的現(xiàn)狀及特點(diǎn)，運(yùn)用歷年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)分析影響我國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的主要金融因素，同時(shí)，根據(jù)SVAR模型定量測(cè)算出這些金融因素對(duì)我國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的影響程度。最后，根據(jù)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果有針對(duì)性的提出一些可解決大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格異常波動(dòng)的穩(wěn)定策略及方法。 本文主要的研究結(jié)論是： 1、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格形成機(jī)制已經(jīng)從傳統(tǒng)的供需平衡機(jī)制轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樵诠┣蠡揪馇疤嵯乱赞r(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)的價(jià)格形成機(jī)制，所以影響大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的因素除基本的供求因素外，更多的是受非傳統(tǒng)因素如金融（資本）因素的影響。 2、影響我國(guó)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格波動(dòng)的金融因素主要有匯率、國(guó)內(nèi)流動(dòng)性水平（貨幣供應(yīng)量、通貨膨脹率）、國(guó)際石油及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格、全球流動(dòng)性水平等。不同的因素對(duì)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的影響程度不同。 3、國(guó)際因素對(duì)大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的影響日益增強(qiáng)，而我國(guó)在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上對(duì)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格缺乏主導(dǎo)權(quán)，因此形成以完善的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場(chǎng)為主，其他新型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品金融組織形式為輔的強(qiáng)大金融體系是與國(guó)際市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行抗衡的有力武器。
[Abstract]:This paper is mainly based on the financial perspective to study the impact factors and stabilization strategies on the price volatility of bulk agricultural products in China. The fluctuation of the price of bulk agricultural products is directly related to the vital interests of the people and the stable development of the country. In recent years, the frequent fluctuations of large agricultural products in China are no longer caused by uneven supply and demand, but are more affected by factors such as finance. So it's worth paying attention to. This paper first synthesizes the existing theories about agricultural product price, such as cobweb theory, futures theory and agricultural protection theory, and analyzes the formation mechanism of bulk agricultural product price on the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from previous research results. Lay a theoretical foundation for the following. Secondly, according to the current situation and characteristics of China's bulk agricultural products prices, using relevant data over the years to analyze the main financial factors that affect the price fluctuations of China's bulk agricultural products, at the same time, According to the SVAR model, the influence of these financial factors on the prices of agricultural commodities in China is calculated quantitatively. Finally, according to the results of empirical test, the paper puts forward some stable strategies and methods to solve the abnormal volatility of agricultural product prices. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The price formation mechanism of agricultural products has changed from the traditional supply-demand balance mechanism to the price formation mechanism dominated by the agricultural product futures market under the premise of the basic equilibrium of supply and demand. Therefore, the factors that affect the price fluctuation of bulk agricultural products are not only the basic supply and demand factors, but also the non-traditional factors, such as financial (capital) factors. 2. The main financial factors influencing the price fluctuation of agricultural products in China are exchange rate, domestic liquidity level (money supply, inflation rate), international oil and agricultural products price, global liquidity level and so on. The influence of different factors on the prices of agricultural commodities is different. 3. The influence of international factors on the prices of bulk agricultural products is increasing day by day. However, our country lacks the leading power over the prices of agricultural products in the international market, so it forms a perfect futures market for agricultural products. Other new forms of agricultural financial organization supplemented by a strong financial system is to compete with the international market a powerful weapon.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F323.7;F832

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