【摘要】：本文主要是基于金融視角研究我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動影響因素及穩(wěn)定策略。大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的波動直接關(guān)系到人民的切身利益及國家的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展，而近年來我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品頻繁波動不再是由供求不均導(dǎo)致，更多的是受金融等因素影響，因此非常值得關(guān)注。本文首先綜合現(xiàn)有關(guān)于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的理論，，如蛛網(wǎng)理論、期貨理論及農(nóng)業(yè)保護理論等，在總結(jié)及借鑒前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，分析大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的形成機制，為下文奠定理論基礎(chǔ)。其次，結(jié)合目前中國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的現(xiàn)狀及特點，運用歷年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)分析影響我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動的主要金融因素，同時，根據(jù)SVAR模型定量測算出這些金融因素對我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的影響程度。最后，根據(jù)實證檢驗結(jié)果有針對性的提出一些可解決大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格異常波動的穩(wěn)定策略及方法。 本文主要的研究結(jié)論是： 1、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格形成機制已經(jīng)從傳統(tǒng)的供需平衡機制轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樵诠┣蠡揪馇疤嵯乱赞r(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場主導(dǎo)的價格形成機制，所以影響大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動的因素除基本的供求因素外，更多的是受非傳統(tǒng)因素如金融（資本）因素的影響。 2、影響我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動的金融因素主要有匯率、國內(nèi)流動性水平（貨幣供應(yīng)量、通貨膨脹率）、國際石油及農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格、全球流動性水平等。不同的因素對大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的影響程度不同。 3、國際因素對大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的影響日益增強，而我國在國際市場上對農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格缺乏主導(dǎo)權(quán)，因此形成以完善的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場為主，其他新型農(nóng)產(chǎn)品金融組織形式為輔的強大金融體系是與國際市場進行抗衡的有力武器。
[Abstract]:This paper is mainly based on the financial perspective to study the impact factors and stabilization strategies on the price volatility of bulk agricultural products in China. The fluctuation of the price of bulk agricultural products is directly related to the vital interests of the people and the stable development of the country. In recent years, the frequent fluctuations of large agricultural products in China are no longer caused by uneven supply and demand, but are more affected by factors such as finance. So it's worth paying attention to. This paper first synthesizes the existing theories about agricultural product price, such as cobweb theory, futures theory and agricultural protection theory, and analyzes the formation mechanism of bulk agricultural product price on the basis of summarizing and drawing lessons from previous research results. Lay a theoretical foundation for the following. Secondly, according to the current situation and characteristics of China's bulk agricultural products prices, using relevant data over the years to analyze the main financial factors that affect the price fluctuations of China's bulk agricultural products, at the same time, According to the SVAR model, the influence of these financial factors on the prices of agricultural commodities in China is calculated quantitatively. Finally, according to the results of empirical test, the paper puts forward some stable strategies and methods to solve the abnormal volatility of agricultural product prices. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1. The price formation mechanism of agricultural products has changed from the traditional supply-demand balance mechanism to the price formation mechanism dominated by the agricultural product futures market under the premise of the basic equilibrium of supply and demand. Therefore, the factors that affect the price fluctuation of bulk agricultural products are not only the basic supply and demand factors, but also the non-traditional factors, such as financial (capital) factors. 2. The main financial factors influencing the price fluctuation of agricultural products in China are exchange rate, domestic liquidity level (money supply, inflation rate), international oil and agricultural products price, global liquidity level and so on. The influence of different factors on the prices of agricultural commodities is different. 3. The influence of international factors on the prices of bulk agricultural products is increasing day by day. However, our country lacks the leading power over the prices of agricultural products in the international market, so it forms a perfect futures market for agricultural products. Other new forms of agricultural financial organization supplemented by a strong financial system is to compete with the international market a powerful weapon.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F323.7;F832

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 郭曉慧;葛黨橋;;中國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動特征研究[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2009年19期

2 崔暢;;貨幣政策工具對資產(chǎn)價格動態(tài)沖擊的識別檢驗[J];財經(jīng)研究;2007年07期

3 吳宗源;農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格上漲成因分析及對策[J];湖南經(jīng)濟;1996年03期

4 郝小眉;;財政農(nóng)業(yè)支出對農(nóng)民收入的效應(yīng)分析[J];北方經(jīng)貿(mào);2009年02期

5 羅鋒;牛寶俊;;國際農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格波動對國內(nèi)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的傳遞效應(yīng)——基于VAR模型的實證研究[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2009年06期

6 程國強;胡冰川;徐雪高;;新一輪農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格上漲的影響分析[J];管理世界;2008年01期

7 楊新榮;糧食期貨市場與糧食價格波動的相關(guān)性研究[J];湖湘論壇;2000年02期

8 郭永俊;;農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格與通貨膨脹率動態(tài)關(guān)系探討[J];價格月刊;2009年08期

9 李林茂;冷崇總;李群;;建立糧食收購“三元一補”價格機制的思考[J];價格月刊;2009年11期

10 蔣曉燕;楊麗娜;蔣敏敏;;國際市場對我國大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格的影響分析[J];價格月刊;2012年05期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 王志彬;中國糧價波動及穩(wěn)定機制研究[D];華中科技大學(xué);2007年

2 祁民;國際視野下的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格風(fēng)險管理研究[D];華東師范大學(xué);2008年

3 何蒲明;基于農(nóng)產(chǎn)品期貨市場的糧食安全問題研究[D];華中農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2009年

本文編號：2297468