中東歐國家銀行業(yè)開放過程中金融風(fēng)險研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-21 21:56
【摘要】：自20世紀90年代中期以來,中東歐國家開始逐漸降低外資銀行的準入門檻,力圖通過引入外資銀行以提高本國的銀行效率。隨著外資銀行的不斷涌入,中東歐國家銀行業(yè)出現(xiàn)了新的風(fēng)險。本文將從微觀角度出發(fā),就中東歐國家銀行經(jīng)營風(fēng)險、銀行資本逆周期風(fēng)險、銀行間借貸風(fēng)險以及銀行貸款和企業(yè)融資風(fēng)險四個方面進行詳細論述。此外,由于中東歐國家銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管體系之間存在著差異性,因此本文還將對這些國家銀行業(yè)的監(jiān)管進行比較分析。 通過研究發(fā)現(xiàn),(1)中東歐國家銀行業(yè)開展的多元化經(jīng)營業(yè)務(wù)雖然能夠拓展銀行盈利渠道,但也不可避免地擠占銀行的傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)收入,可能造成銀行傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)風(fēng)險被低估,進而增加銀行風(fēng)險。此外,從實證中可以發(fā)現(xiàn),適度開展多元化業(yè)務(wù)能夠有效降低銀行風(fēng)險,但如果過度開展多元化業(yè)務(wù)反而會增加銀行風(fēng)險,最終導(dǎo)致銀行的不穩(wěn)定。(2)中東歐國家銀行業(yè)資本呈現(xiàn)逆周期現(xiàn)象,其中銀行間借貸與銀行資本不僅無顯著關(guān)系,且多元化經(jīng)營中的傭金收入業(yè)務(wù)和證券買賣業(yè)務(wù)也無法有效補充銀行資本,正因為如此,銀行不得不面對銀行間借貸以及銀行多元化經(jīng)營所帶來的風(fēng)險。(3)中東歐國家銀行業(yè)存在具有其特色的銀行間借貸行為。其中,借出資金的銀行經(jīng)營效率并不高,而借入資金的銀行往往會將資金用于彌補自身流動性不足,一旦貨幣政策趨緊就會增加銀行間借貸的風(fēng)險。隨著外資銀行不斷進入中東歐國家,這種銀行間借貸紐帶將被逐漸削弱,而銀行的流動性資產(chǎn)持有比率也會隨之降低,這也會增加整個銀行業(yè)的流動性風(fēng)險。(4)從銀行貸款的角度看,外幣貸款、家庭信貸過快增長、企業(yè)過度依賴間接融資以及外資銀行的“摘櫻桃”行為都會不同程度地增加中東歐國家的銀行業(yè)風(fēng)險。而從企業(yè)融資角度看,貸款手續(xù)和申請周期的加快、小企業(yè)融資約束以及外資銀行對內(nèi)資企業(yè)貸款歧視也都會增加中東歐國家實體企業(yè)的經(jīng)營風(fēng)險。 本文的結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 導(dǎo)論。就本研究的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義以及所要解決的主要問題、研究框架、新意和不足進行了論述。 第一章、文獻綜述。主要對銀行業(yè)開放的溢出效應(yīng)及對其金融穩(wěn)定的影響、銀行業(yè)開放與金融風(fēng)險、銀行業(yè)開放與金融危機以及銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管做了相關(guān)文獻綜述。在銀行業(yè)開放與金融風(fēng)險中,分別就銀行間借貸及流動性風(fēng)險、銀行多元化經(jīng)營、銀行資本風(fēng)險做詳細的文獻回顧和總結(jié)。 第二章、中東歐國家銀行業(yè)的改革進程。分別從中東歐國家金融銀行業(yè)在計劃經(jīng)濟中的模式特征、20世紀90年代初期中東歐國家銀行業(yè)改革、20世紀90年代中后期和本世紀初中東歐國家銀行業(yè)改革與發(fā)展以及全球金融危機沖擊下的中東歐國家銀行業(yè)做了詳細的描述。 第三章、中東歐國家銀行業(yè)經(jīng)營風(fēng)險。本章首先分析了中東歐國家銀行多元化經(jīng)營的現(xiàn)狀。在建立了相關(guān)模型后得出銀行多元化經(jīng)營的影響因素及其與傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)的關(guān)系。同時,針對銀行開展多元化業(yè)務(wù)是否會對傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)造成擠占及低估做了詳細分析,并就開展多元化業(yè)務(wù)對銀行穩(wěn)定性的影響做了實證分析。 第四章、中東歐國家銀行資本逆周期風(fēng)險分析。本章首先對中東歐國家銀行資本充足率要求做了說明,并依托模型解釋了一旦資本充足率要求上升可能會對銀行體系產(chǎn)生的影響及風(fēng)險。同時,就中東歐國家銀行資本逆周期性、銀行間流動性風(fēng)險及多元化風(fēng)險對銀行資本的影響做了實證分析。 第五章、中東歐國家銀行間市場風(fēng)險。本章首先對于中東歐國家銀行間借貸的形成原因和現(xiàn)狀進行了說明。在借助簡單的理論模型后可以發(fā)現(xiàn),中東歐國家的銀行間借貸行為其實是不穩(wěn)定的,且容易形成風(fēng)險。隨后分別從銀行間借貸的影響因素,以及考慮中東歐國家銀行業(yè)市場結(jié)構(gòu)、銀行業(yè)脆弱性對銀行間借貸的影響兩個方面進行了分析。 第六章、中東歐國家的銀行貸款及企業(yè)融資。本章首先對中東歐國家特有的貸款模式做了詳細說明,并就中東歐國家的這些貸款模式可能造成的潛在風(fēng)險做了分析。同時,對中東歐國家的企業(yè)融資現(xiàn)狀做了相關(guān)說明,并就這些融資中的潛在風(fēng)險做了解釋分析。 第七章、中東歐國家的銀行業(yè)監(jiān)管。本章首先就中東歐國家銀行監(jiān)管體系做了相關(guān)說明,并就銀行政策套利行為、中東歐國家銀行間監(jiān)督問題和銀行業(yè)監(jiān)督模式等內(nèi)容進行研究,分別從政策漏洞、市場化監(jiān)督彌補政府監(jiān)督以及監(jiān)督模式進行比較分析。 第八章、總結(jié)、政策建議及對中國的啟示。首先,在對前文各章進行總結(jié)的同時對中東歐國家銀行業(yè)的風(fēng)險給出了相關(guān)政策建議。其次,就借鑒中東歐國家銀行體系改革過程中出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險對中國銀行業(yè)改革提出啟示。
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, central and Eastern European countries have gradually reduced the access threshold of foreign banks, trying to improve their banking efficiency by introducing foreign banks. With the continuous influx of foreign banks, new risks have emerged in the Middle East European countries' banking industry. Risk, the reverse cycle risk of bank capital, the risk of interbank lending and the risk of bank loan and enterprise financing are discussed in detail. In addition, because there are differences between the banking regulatory system in Middle East and European countries, this paper will also make a comparative analysis of the banking supervision in these countries.
Through the study, it is found that (1) although the diversification of banking industry in central and Eastern European countries can expand the channel of bank profit, but also inevitably occupy the traditional business income of the bank, it may cause the bank's traditional business risk to be underestimated and then increase the bank risk. It can effectively reduce the risk of the bank, but if the excessive diversification of the business will increase the bank risk and eventually lead to the instability of the bank. (2) there is a reverse cycle phenomenon in the Middle East European countries' banking capital, in which the interbank lending has not only no significant relationship with the bank capital, and the commission income business and the securities trading industry in the diversified operation. There is no effective supplement to bank capital, which is why banks have to face the risks of inter bank lending and bank diversification. (3) there are interbank lending behaviors with its own characteristics in the banking sector in the Middle East and Europe. Gold is used to make up for the lack of liquidity. Once the monetary policy is tight, the risk of interbank lending will be increased. As foreign banks continue to enter the central and Eastern European countries, this interbank lending bond will be gradually weakened and the bank's liquidity ratio will decrease, which will also increase the liquidity risk of the entire banking sector. (4 From the perspective of bank loans, foreign currency loans, excessive growth of household credit, excessive reliance on indirect financing and the "cherry picking" behavior of foreign banks will increase the risk of banking in central and Eastern European countries to varying degrees. From the perspective of enterprise financing, loan procedures and application cycles, small business financing constraints and foreign investment will be considered. Banks' discrimination against domestic funded enterprises will also increase the operational risk of entities in central and Eastern European countries.
The structure of this article is as follows:
Introductory remarks are made on the theoretical significance and practical significance of the study, as well as the main problems to be solved, the research framework, new ideas and shortcomings.
The first chapter is a literature review, mainly on the spillover effect of banking opening and its impact on its financial stability, banking openness and financial risk, banking opening and financial crisis, and banking supervision. In the open and financial risks of banking, the interbank lending and liquidity risk, and the diversification of banks The bank's capital risks are reviewed and summarized in detail.
The second chapter, the reform process of the banking industry in central and Eastern European countries, from the pattern characteristics of the financial banking industry in the central and Eastern European countries in the planned economy, the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking industry in the early 1990s, the middle and late 1990s, the reform and development of the Eastern European countries' banking industry in middle school and the Middle East under the impact of the global financial crisis. The European banking industry has made a detailed description.
The third chapter is the risk of banking operation in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first analyzes the current situation of diversification in central and Eastern European countries. After establishing the related models, the factors affecting the diversification of banks and their relationship with traditional business are obtained. At the same time, whether the diversification of business will cause and underestimate the traditional business. This paper makes a detailed analysis and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of diversified business on bank stability.
The fourth chapter, the reverse cycle risk analysis of bank capital in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the capital adequacy requirements of central and Eastern European countries, and relies on the model to explain the possible impact and risk on the banking system once the capital adequacy requirements rise. Meanwhile, the reverse periodicity and inter-bank flow of the capital of central and Eastern European countries. The impact of dynamic risk and diversification risk on bank capital is empirically analyzed.
The fifth chapter, the risk of interbank market between central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the causes and status of inter bank lending in central and Eastern European countries. After a simple theoretical model, it can be found that the interbank lending behavior in central and Eastern European countries is actually unstable and easily forms a risk. Then, the interbank lending is separately borrowed. The influencing factors, as well as the two aspects of the banking market structure in eastern and central Europe, the impact of banking fragility on interbank lending are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, bank loans and enterprise financing in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first gives a detailed account of the specific loan patterns in central and Eastern European countries, and analyses the potential risks caused by these loan models in central and Eastern European countries. The potential risk was explained and analyzed.
The seventh chapter, banking supervision in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first made a related explanation on the banking regulatory system in central and Eastern European countries, and studied the Arbitrage Behavior of the bank policy, the interbank supervision and the banking supervision model in Middle East and European countries, and made up for the government supervision and supervision mode from the policy loopholes and the market supervision. Make a comparative analysis.
The eighth chapter, the summary, the policy suggestions and the enlightenment to China. First, in the summary of the foregoing chapters, it gives the relevant policy suggestions to the risk of the banking industry in the Middle East and Europe. Secondly, it puts forward the enlightenment to the reform of China's silver industry by borrowing the risks from the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F835.1
，
本文編號：2136978
[Abstract]:Since the mid 1990s, central and Eastern European countries have gradually reduced the access threshold of foreign banks, trying to improve their banking efficiency by introducing foreign banks. With the continuous influx of foreign banks, new risks have emerged in the Middle East European countries' banking industry. Risk, the reverse cycle risk of bank capital, the risk of interbank lending and the risk of bank loan and enterprise financing are discussed in detail. In addition, because there are differences between the banking regulatory system in Middle East and European countries, this paper will also make a comparative analysis of the banking supervision in these countries.
Through the study, it is found that (1) although the diversification of banking industry in central and Eastern European countries can expand the channel of bank profit, but also inevitably occupy the traditional business income of the bank, it may cause the bank's traditional business risk to be underestimated and then increase the bank risk. It can effectively reduce the risk of the bank, but if the excessive diversification of the business will increase the bank risk and eventually lead to the instability of the bank. (2) there is a reverse cycle phenomenon in the Middle East European countries' banking capital, in which the interbank lending has not only no significant relationship with the bank capital, and the commission income business and the securities trading industry in the diversified operation. There is no effective supplement to bank capital, which is why banks have to face the risks of inter bank lending and bank diversification. (3) there are interbank lending behaviors with its own characteristics in the banking sector in the Middle East and Europe. Gold is used to make up for the lack of liquidity. Once the monetary policy is tight, the risk of interbank lending will be increased. As foreign banks continue to enter the central and Eastern European countries, this interbank lending bond will be gradually weakened and the bank's liquidity ratio will decrease, which will also increase the liquidity risk of the entire banking sector. (4 From the perspective of bank loans, foreign currency loans, excessive growth of household credit, excessive reliance on indirect financing and the "cherry picking" behavior of foreign banks will increase the risk of banking in central and Eastern European countries to varying degrees. From the perspective of enterprise financing, loan procedures and application cycles, small business financing constraints and foreign investment will be considered. Banks' discrimination against domestic funded enterprises will also increase the operational risk of entities in central and Eastern European countries.
The structure of this article is as follows:
Introductory remarks are made on the theoretical significance and practical significance of the study, as well as the main problems to be solved, the research framework, new ideas and shortcomings.
The first chapter is a literature review, mainly on the spillover effect of banking opening and its impact on its financial stability, banking openness and financial risk, banking opening and financial crisis, and banking supervision. In the open and financial risks of banking, the interbank lending and liquidity risk, and the diversification of banks The bank's capital risks are reviewed and summarized in detail.
The second chapter, the reform process of the banking industry in central and Eastern European countries, from the pattern characteristics of the financial banking industry in the central and Eastern European countries in the planned economy, the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking industry in the early 1990s, the middle and late 1990s, the reform and development of the Eastern European countries' banking industry in middle school and the Middle East under the impact of the global financial crisis. The European banking industry has made a detailed description.
The third chapter is the risk of banking operation in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first analyzes the current situation of diversification in central and Eastern European countries. After establishing the related models, the factors affecting the diversification of banks and their relationship with traditional business are obtained. At the same time, whether the diversification of business will cause and underestimate the traditional business. This paper makes a detailed analysis and makes an empirical analysis of the impact of diversified business on bank stability.
The fourth chapter, the reverse cycle risk analysis of bank capital in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the capital adequacy requirements of central and Eastern European countries, and relies on the model to explain the possible impact and risk on the banking system once the capital adequacy requirements rise. Meanwhile, the reverse periodicity and inter-bank flow of the capital of central and Eastern European countries. The impact of dynamic risk and diversification risk on bank capital is empirically analyzed.
The fifth chapter, the risk of interbank market between central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first explains the causes and status of inter bank lending in central and Eastern European countries. After a simple theoretical model, it can be found that the interbank lending behavior in central and Eastern European countries is actually unstable and easily forms a risk. Then, the interbank lending is separately borrowed. The influencing factors, as well as the two aspects of the banking market structure in eastern and central Europe, the impact of banking fragility on interbank lending are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, bank loans and enterprise financing in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first gives a detailed account of the specific loan patterns in central and Eastern European countries, and analyses the potential risks caused by these loan models in central and Eastern European countries. The potential risk was explained and analyzed.
The seventh chapter, banking supervision in central and Eastern European countries. This chapter first made a related explanation on the banking regulatory system in central and Eastern European countries, and studied the Arbitrage Behavior of the bank policy, the interbank supervision and the banking supervision model in Middle East and European countries, and made up for the government supervision and supervision mode from the policy loopholes and the market supervision. Make a comparative analysis.
The eighth chapter, the summary, the policy suggestions and the enlightenment to China. First, in the summary of the foregoing chapters, it gives the relevant policy suggestions to the risk of the banking industry in the Middle East and Europe. Secondly, it puts forward the enlightenment to the reform of China's silver industry by borrowing the risks from the reform of the central and Eastern European countries' banking system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F835.1
，
本文編號：2136978
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