本文選題：短期國(guó)際資本 + 規(guī)模測(cè)算��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：回望2012年,受歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)影響,世界經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然是負(fù)重前行,雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷的形勢(shì)有所緩解,但是整體而言,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)仍在低位運(yùn)行,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的失業(yè)率居高不下,復(fù)蘇緩慢,新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體自身的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力不足,面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的瓶頸,全球貿(mào)易驟減,復(fù)雜的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)也對(duì)國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)產(chǎn)生了重要的影響。隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2012年11月推出了第三輪量化寬松的貨幣政策,將進(jìn)一步加劇全球短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的波動(dòng)性,尤其對(duì)于像我國(guó)這樣的新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家,可能要面臨新一輪的短期國(guó)際資本流入。 本文對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的規(guī)模、動(dòng)因、經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了較為全面和系統(tǒng)的研究,首先,對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本的規(guī)模的測(cè)算方法進(jìn)行了梳理、總結(jié)和比較,并用這些方法對(duì)我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了測(cè)算,然后調(diào)整簡(jiǎn)化其中的某些測(cè)算方法,提出了本文的測(cè)算公式；其次,從理論和實(shí)證兩方面,對(duì)影響我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的主要因素進(jìn)行了深入的研究和探索,兼顧數(shù)據(jù)的公開(kāi)性、可獲性、準(zhǔn)確性、統(tǒng)一性,運(yùn)用2005.8-2012.9的月度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析；再次,針對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)產(chǎn)生可能引起經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)做了實(shí)證研究,并在理論的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合我國(guó)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況,解釋了實(shí)證研究結(jié)果。最后,簡(jiǎn)要地總結(jié)文章的主要內(nèi)容,并針對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流入我國(guó)的規(guī)模及其變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)作出估計(jì)和判斷,結(jié)合前文實(shí)證研究結(jié)果的,提出相應(yīng)的短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)監(jiān)管的政策建議。 實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,短期國(guó)際資本的流入存在套匯、套價(jià)、套利的“三重套利”傾向,其中以套匯為主要的投機(jī)傾向,部分短期國(guó)際資本通過(guò)QFⅡ以及B股市場(chǎng)或者其他的隱蔽渠道滲透到股票市場(chǎng),并有從短期套利資本轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橹虚L(zhǎng)期投機(jī)資本的趨勢(shì),并且這些短期國(guó)際資本的突發(fā)性變動(dòng)可能會(huì)影響到匯率以及股指的波動(dòng)。
[Abstract]:Looking back at 2012, under the influence of the European sovereign debt crisis, the world economy is still carrying a heavy load. Although the economic downturn has eased somewhat, overall economic growth is still running at a low level, and unemployment in developed countries remains high. The slow recovery, the lack of growth momentum in emerging economies themselves, the bottleneck in economic growth, the sharp decline in global trade and the complex global economic situation have had a significant impact on international capital flows. As the Federal Reserve launched its third round of quantitative easing in November 2012, it will further increase the volatility of global short-term international capital flows, especially in emerging market countries such as China. May face a new round of short-term international capital inflows. This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic study on the scale, motivation and economic effect of short-term international capital flows. Firstly, the paper sorts out, summarizes and compares the methods of calculating the scale of short-term international capital. This paper uses these methods to measure the scale of short-term international capital flow in China, then adjusts and simplifies some of the calculation methods, and puts forward the calculation formula of this paper. Secondly, from the theoretical and empirical aspects, The main factors affecting the short-term international capital flow in China have been deeply studied and explored, and the monthly data of 2005.8-2012.9 have been used to analyze, taking into account the openness, availability, accuracy and unity of the data. This paper makes an empirical study on the possible economic effects of short-term international capital flows, and explains the results of the empirical research on the basis of theory and combining with the reality of our country. Finally, briefly summarize the main contents of the article, and make an estimate and judgment on the scale and trend of short-term international capital inflow into China, combined with the results of the previous empirical research. Put forward the corresponding short-term international capital flow supervision policy recommendations. The empirical results show that there is a tendency of "triple arbitrage" in short-term international capital inflows, in which arbitrage is the main speculative tendency. Some short-term international capital seeps into the stock market through QF 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：1956003