本文選題：國際利率　切入點：利率調(diào)整　出處：《福建師范大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟全球化加大了國際經(jīng)濟的相互依存性。2008年的金融危機使世界金融制度發(fā)生重大變化,國家有效干預(yù)受到重視。國際經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)對解決國際經(jīng)濟的相互依存性問題的作用日益增大,國際利率聯(lián)動性也呈增強趨勢。隨著中國融入全球經(jīng)濟程度的加深,中國利率的國際聯(lián)動趨勢日益顯現(xiàn),弱化了其對市場利率與經(jīng)濟的調(diào)控水平。本文在文獻回顧,明確了中國國際利率聯(lián)動與應(yīng)對研究必須以馬克思主義利息理論為指導(dǎo)的基礎(chǔ)上,運用數(shù)理推演與實證檢驗的方法探討了國際利率聯(lián)動性趨勢、特征以及對中國經(jīng)濟與央行利率調(diào)控效率的影響,并建立了中國利率聯(lián)動應(yīng)對機制。 結(jié)果表明,國際利率聯(lián)動性的本質(zhì)是經(jīng)濟全球化,其來源有四個即經(jīng)濟全球化、金融一體化、世界共同因素以及國際經(jīng)濟政策協(xié)調(diào)。在經(jīng)濟正常期,國際聯(lián)動程度較底,而在經(jīng)濟異動時期則高。2008年國際金融危機增強了國際利率聯(lián)動性,金融危機后國際利率聯(lián)動程度明顯高于之前。國際利率聯(lián)動性與開放經(jīng)濟政策的“三元悖論”緊密相連。國際利率聯(lián)動性主要受資本流動、本國貨幣升值預(yù)期以及外匯儲備規(guī)模的影響。國際利率聯(lián)動性與資本流動程度有正向變動關(guān)系,而同升值預(yù)期與中國儲備規(guī)模呈反向變動的關(guān)系。在以上因素作用下,中國利率調(diào)整呈現(xiàn)出一定程度的國際聯(lián)動性與獨立性。但國際利率的聯(lián)動性有不對稱特征。美國利率政策調(diào)整對美國產(chǎn)出有明顯促進作用,而對中國產(chǎn)出的促進作用較弱。國際利率聯(lián)動性對弱化了中國利率政策對市場利率的調(diào)控水平。 最后,文章提出了相關(guān)對策與建議。中國應(yīng)該協(xié)調(diào)資本項目開放、利率匯率市場化。央行應(yīng)以物價穩(wěn)定為貨幣政策長期目標(biāo),利用利率走廊操作系統(tǒng)間接調(diào)控市場利率,權(quán)衡資本項目開放、外匯儲備變化、匯率穩(wěn)定與利率政策相對獨立的關(guān)系,以平衡國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟增長與通貨膨脹水平的關(guān)系。要保持中國利率政策相對獨立,主動參與國際利率政策協(xié)調(diào),以提高中國利率政策調(diào)控效率。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization has increased the interdependence of the international economy. The 2008 financial crisis brought about major changes in the world financial system. The role of international economic policy coordination in solving the problem of interdependence in the international economy is increasingly increasing, and the international interest rate linkage is also showing an increasing trend. As China's integration into the global economy deepens, The trend of international linkage of interest rate in China is becoming more and more obvious, which weakens its control level of market interest rate and economy. This paper makes it clear that the research on the linkage and response of China's international interest rate must be guided by Marxist interest theory, and discusses the trend of international interest rate linkage by means of mathematical deduction and empirical test. Characteristics and effects on China's economy and the efficiency of the central bank's interest rate regulation and control, and the establishment of China's interest rate linkage response mechanism. The results show that the nature of international interest rate linkage is economic globalization, which comes from four sources: economic globalization, financial integration, world common factors and coordination of international economic policies. The 2008 international financial crisis strengthened the international interest rate linkage. The degree of international interest rate linkage after the financial crisis is obviously higher than that before. The international interest rate linkage is closely related to the "ternary paradox" of open economic policy. There is a positive relationship between international interest rate linkage and the degree of capital flow, but a reverse relationship between the expectation of appreciation and the size of China's reserve. China's interest rate adjustment shows a certain degree of international linkage and independence, but the linkage of international interest rate has asymmetrical characteristics. The adjustment of American interest rate policy can obviously promote the output of the United States. The linkage of international interest rate weakens the control level of Chinese interest rate policy to market interest rate. Finally, the paper puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions. China should coordinate the opening of capital account, the marketization of interest rate exchange rate, and the central bank should take price stability as the long-term target of monetary policy, and indirectly regulate the market interest rate by using the interest rate corridor operating system. To balance capital account opening, changes in foreign exchange reserves, exchange rate stability and relative independence of interest rate policies in order to balance the relationship between domestic economic growth and the level of inflation, it is necessary to maintain a relatively independent interest rate policy in China. To actively participate in the coordination of international interest rate policy in order to improve the efficiency of China's interest rate policy control.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：福建師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F821.0;F831.6

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