發(fā)布時間：2018-03-18 04:31

  本文選題：短期國際資本　切入點：資本流動　出處：《華東師范大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：20世紀80年代以來,全球信息技術不斷發(fā)展,交易機制也逐漸完善,國際資本流動的規(guī)模和速度不斷擴大。其中,短期國際資本流動的擴張尤為顯著,特別是1997年亞洲金融危機爆發(fā)之后,它日益強大的影響力和破壞力引起了學者的廣泛注意。 進入新世紀,我國穩(wěn)健增長的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境吸引了大規(guī)模的短期國際資本流入。此后,2008年爆發(fā)的全球金融危機和2010年開始的歐債危機使全球經(jīng)濟金融形勢愈發(fā)復雜,我國的短期國際資本流動也呈現(xiàn)雙向波動的態(tài)勢。在對外開放過程中,我國遭受短期資本沖擊的可能性和危害性不斷加大。所以,對我國短期國際資本流入及其影響的情況進行研究是有理論和現(xiàn)實意義的。 本文采用理論研究與實證分析相結合的方法,在充分研究資本流動理論的基礎上,通過國際收支平衡表及其他相關數(shù)據(jù)估算出近年來我國短期國際資本流動的方向、規(guī)模和趨勢,并對短期資本流動的影響因素進行了實證分析,結果顯示人民幣匯率預期、宏觀經(jīng)濟狀況、中美利率差異以及美元指數(shù)強弱會對我國短期國際資本流動產(chǎn)生影響。 此外,本文還使用圖表數(shù)據(jù)和實證分析的方法深入探討短期國際資本流入對我國經(jīng)濟帶來的正面和負面影響,結果表明短期國際資本對我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展帶來了一些積極影響,包括提供短期資金來源、促進金融深化等,但是同時弱化了我國貨幣政策的獨立性,對股票市場、房地產(chǎn)市場和外匯市場帶來了沖擊。最后,結合研究結論和實際情況,本文試圖提出一些有益的政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since 1980s, with the continuous development of global information technology, the trading mechanism has been gradually improved, and the scale and speed of international capital flows have been continuously expanding. Among them, the expansion of short-term international capital flows is particularly significant. Especially after the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, its increasingly powerful influence and destructive power attracted wide attention of scholars. In the new century, China's steady growth macroeconomic environment has attracted a large number of short-term international capital inflows. Since then, the global financial situation has become more complicated by the global financial crisis that broke out in 2008 and the European debt crisis that began in 2010. In the process of opening up to the outside world, the possibility and harmfulness of short-term capital shock in China is increasing. It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the short-term international capital inflow and its influence in China. Based on the study of capital flow theory, this paper estimates the direction of short-term international capital flow in China in recent years by means of balance of payments and other relevant data. The scale and trend, and the influencing factors of short-term capital flow are analyzed. The results show that the expectation of RMB exchange rate, the macroeconomic situation, the difference of interest rate between China and the United States, and the strength of US dollar index will affect the short-term international capital flow of our country. In addition, the paper also uses the method of chart data and empirical analysis to probe into the positive and negative effects of short-term international capital inflows on China's economy. The results show that short-term international capital has brought some positive effects on the economic development of China. Including providing short-term sources of funds and promoting financial deepening, but weakening the independence of China's monetary policy at the same time, which has impacted the stock market, the real estate market and the foreign exchange market. Finally, combined with the conclusions of the study and the actual situation, This paper tries to put forward some useful policy suggestions.
【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6

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相關期刊論文 前10條

1 劉兵權;彭菲婭;;國際游資與資產(chǎn)泡沫[J];環(huán)渤海經(jīng)濟w，

本文編號：1628025