我國商業(yè)銀行風險與非利息收入關(guān)系的實證分析
本文選題:商業(yè)銀行 切入點:非利息收入 出處:《西南財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文 論文類型:學位論文
【摘要】:受制于分業(yè)經(jīng)營政策,長期以來我國銀行業(yè)的收入一直依賴于存貸款利差,與西方發(fā)達國家的銀行在收入結(jié)構(gòu)方面存在著較大的差異。近年來,受金融創(chuàng)新、利率市場化要求、社會融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化、居民投資與理財意識的逐步提高等因素的影響,我國商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)務創(chuàng)新與發(fā)展可謂突飛猛進,在傳統(tǒng)信貸業(yè)務之外積極開拓非利息收入業(yè)務。非利息收入逐漸受到各大銀行的重視,并在其年報的財務概況中作為重要的贏利性指標進行闡述。從年報數(shù)據(jù)上看,凈利息收入在商業(yè)銀行凈營業(yè)收入中的比重逐年縮小,而非利息收入占銀行凈營業(yè)收入的比重卻逐年增大。其中,手續(xù)費及傭金凈收入日益呈現(xiàn)出高過凈利息收入增長的速度,占銀行營業(yè)收入的比重逐步提高。 根據(jù)央行發(fā)布的《2012年第四季度中國貨幣政策執(zhí)行報告》顯示,2012年我國金融機構(gòu)存貸款利率總體繼續(xù)下行,12月份非金融企業(yè)及其他部門貸款加權(quán)平均利率為6.78%,比年初下降1.23個百分點。此外,我國的社會融資方式多元發(fā)展,其中人民幣貸款增加較多,但占比下降至歷史最低水平;而人民幣貸款以外的融資方式如信托貸款、企業(yè)債券融資十分活躍,直接融資占比創(chuàng)歷史最高水平。傳統(tǒng)銀行貸款占我國融資規(guī)模的比例日益下滑,從2002年的95%降至2011年的僅僅58%,而在這期間,社會融資總規(guī)模增長了近7倍。雖然面臨存貸款利差縮小、直接融資方式增加的壓力,但是據(jù)銀監(jiān)會統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2010~2012年國內(nèi)商業(yè)銀行依然實現(xiàn)了凈利潤從7637億元到12386億元的突破,增長速度將近65%,其中來自非利息收入增長的貢獻不可小覷。此外,在政策層面上,政府積極鼓勵銀行向非利息收入業(yè)務領(lǐng)域拓展和做大做強。去年12月,經(jīng)國務院批準,中國人民銀行、銀監(jiān)會、證監(jiān)會再次擴大商業(yè)銀行設立基金管理公司試點范圍,商業(yè)銀行設立基金管理公司,有利于拓寬非利息收入的業(yè)務范圍。到目前為止,我國商業(yè)銀行的業(yè)務范圍已經(jīng)涉足信托、保險、證券、金融租賃業(yè)等。 隨著我國商業(yè)銀行紛紛將非利息收入作為重點業(yè)務之一進行開拓,人們很自然的會擔憂這樣一種發(fā)展趨勢是否會擴大商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)營風險呢?與凈利息收入相比,非利息收入是否更具有波動性?非利息收入對我國商業(yè)銀行的風險有否有顯著的影響?這些問題都有待解決。鑒于2007年美國次貸危機的爆發(fā)以及在危機中來源于資產(chǎn)證券化產(chǎn)生的手續(xù)費及傭金收入所扮演的角色,深化對銀行非利息收入本質(zhì)的研究具有全球性重要意義。目前我國銀行業(yè)正處于快速開放和變革的過程中,對近些年銀行業(yè)收入結(jié)構(gòu)以及宏觀環(huán)境新出現(xiàn)的特點與銀行風險的關(guān)系進行深入的分析,對于我國構(gòu)建穩(wěn)固的銀行業(yè)微觀結(jié)構(gòu)具有重要的政策意義。 本文的關(guān)注焦點是我國商業(yè)銀行非利息收入的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,其規(guī)模的迅猛發(fā)展是以銀行傳統(tǒng)信貸業(yè)務出現(xiàn)萎縮為前提的,究其背景是中國利率市場化改革與居民收入結(jié)構(gòu)變化致使投資與理財意識提高的雙重效應疊加。面對監(jiān)管當局針對銀行非利息收入業(yè)務出臺新規(guī)則,逐步加強對銀行非利息收入業(yè)務的監(jiān)管,如何既有效地擴大業(yè)務規(guī)模又能防止風險水平提高成為國內(nèi)商業(yè)銀行面臨的現(xiàn)實問題。 國內(nèi)外學者對商業(yè)銀行風險與非利息收入之間的關(guān)系進行了系統(tǒng)的分析,本文在眾多學者研究的基礎上,結(jié)合理論分析與實證分析,論證了非利息收入與商業(yè)銀行的風險二者之間可能存在的關(guān)系,以及非利息收入的發(fā)展對商業(yè)銀行風險的影響機制,目的是為商業(yè)銀行發(fā)展非利息收入提供一些思路,對于當前我國商業(yè)銀行進行業(yè)務轉(zhuǎn)型、做好風險控制具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文共分為五個部分,具體如下: 第一部分是導論。首先介紹了本文的選題背景和研究意義,然后扼要概述本文的研究思路、研究方法與不足,并總結(jié)了本文的創(chuàng)新之處。 第二部分是文獻綜述。首先界定了非利息收入的概念,然后從多元化經(jīng)營理論、范圍經(jīng)濟理論、金融創(chuàng)新理論三個層面介紹了商業(yè)銀行拓展非利息收入的理論基礎,最后總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外對商業(yè)銀行的風險與非利息收入之間關(guān)系的實證研究成果,為后文的現(xiàn)狀分析和實證分析打下基礎。 第三部分是非利息收入業(yè)務在我國的發(fā)展簡析,為本文的主體部分。首先從歷史角度概述了非利息收入業(yè)務在我國的發(fā)展歷程,并總結(jié)了每一階段非利息收入所呈現(xiàn)的特征,及其背后的原因;然后從行業(yè)整體與兩大類銀行對比兩方面,并結(jié)合數(shù)據(jù)對我國商業(yè)銀行非利息收入的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀進行定性和定量分析;最后從三個方面重點闡述了非利息收入對我國商業(yè)銀行的風險可能產(chǎn)生的影響:銀行傳統(tǒng)信貸業(yè)務的風險和收益水平受到影響、銀行經(jīng)營杠桿與財務杠桿放大致使經(jīng)營風險增加、銀行風險管理難度加大。 第四部分是實證分析。首先從非利息收入與凈利息收入的相關(guān)性、波動性、周期性三方面對我國商業(yè)銀行風險與非利息收入的關(guān)系做出一個基本判斷,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)我國大多數(shù)商業(yè)銀行的非利息收入與凈利息收入是負相關(guān)的,且非利息收入的波動性大于凈利息收入,但是與凈利息收入相比,非利息收入受經(jīng)濟周期波動的影響較小;其次為商業(yè)銀行的風險確立衡量標準,并據(jù)此建立計量模型;最后用2002~2011年我國13家上市商業(yè)銀行的面板數(shù)據(jù)進行實證分析,得到的基本結(jié)論為:提高非利息收入占比能夠有效提升商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)風險調(diào)整的資產(chǎn)收益率,從而降低銀行的風險水平;但是,由于非利息收入的波動性較大,其主要是通過兩類收入之間的低相關(guān)性分散了經(jīng)營風險,取得多元化收益的;此外,對國有商業(yè)銀行和股份制商業(yè)銀行而言,非利息收入對銀行風險的影響機制不同,具體來說是:非利息收入給國有商業(yè)銀行帶來的風險分散效應更為顯著。 第五部分是結(jié)論。本章在前文的非利息收入現(xiàn)狀分析、非利息收入對銀行風險的影響機制和實證分析的基礎上,得出我國商業(yè)銀行風險與非利息收入關(guān)系的相關(guān)結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Subject to the operation policy of China's banking industry has long been dependent on income and loan spreads, the banks of western developed countries in the income structure has great difference. In recent years, the requirements of financial innovation, interest rate marketization, social financing structure changes, affect the residents' investment and financing consciousness gradually improve etc. factors, business innovation and development is our country commercial bank by leaps and bounds, and actively explore the non interest income business in addition to the traditional credit business. Non interest income gradually by major banks attention, and expounds the profit index in the annual report of the financial situation. From the annual report data, the proportion of net in the commercial bank net interest income in operating income decreased year after year, while non interest income accounted for the proportion of Bank net operating income is increasing year by year. Among them, the net fee and commission income on The interest rate is higher than the net interest income, and the proportion of the bank's operating income is gradually increased.
According to the central bank released the <2012 in the fourth quarter monetary policy implementation report > China showed that in 2012 China's financial institutions deposit the overall lending rates continued downward, in December, and other non-financial corporate sector loans weighted average interest rate of 6.78%, down 1.23 percentage points from the beginning. In addition, the social financing of China's diversified development, of which RMB loans increased more, but the proportion dropped to its lowest level in history; while the RMB loan outside of financing such as trust loans, corporate bond financing is very active, direct financing accounted for the highest level. Traditional bank loans accounted for the proportion of China's financing scale falling from 95% in 2002 to just 58% in 2011, and in this during the period, the total social financing scale increased by nearly 7 times. Despite the narrowing of interest rate spreads, increase direct financing pressure, but according to the CBRC statistics show that 20 10~2012 years of domestic commercial banks still achieve a net profit from 763 billion 700 million yuan to 12386 yuan breakthrough, the growth rate of nearly 65%, which comes from the non interest income growth should not be overlooked. In addition, at the policy level, the government encourages banks to non interest income business field to expand and become bigger and stronger. In December of last year, the State Council approved by the people's Bank of Chinese, CBRC, CSRC again to expand commercial banks to set up fund management company pilot, commercial banks to set up fund management company, to broaden the scope of non interest income business. So far, China's commercial banks have been involved in the business scope of trust, insurance, securities, financial leasing industry.
As China's commercial banks to non interest income as one of the key business development, people naturally worry that such a trend will expand the operating risk of commercial banks? Compared with net interest income, non interest income is more volatile? Non interest income on the risk of Chinese Commercial Bank not have a significant impact? These problems are to be solved. In 2007 the U.S. subprime crisis and the source in the crisis in the asset securitization of fee and commission income plays the role of global significance to deepen the study of bank non interest income nature. The process of China's banking industry is in a rapid opening and change, in-depth analysis of the relationship between the banking income structure and macro environment the emergence of new features and bank risk, for our country construction A solid banking micro structure has an important policy significance.
The focus of this paper is the current situation of the development of China's commercial banks non interest income, the rapid development of the scale is based on the traditional banking credit business shrinking as the premise, the background is Chinese interest rate marketization reform and the change of income structure resulting in investment and financial awareness provided double effect overlay high. Facing the regulatory authorities for banks non interest income business issued new rules, to gradually strengthen the bank non interest income business regulation, how to effectively expand business scale and can prevent the risk level has become a realistic problem faced by domestic commercial banks.
The domestic and foreign scholars have made a systematic analysis on the relationship between commercial banks and non interest income, this paper on the basis of many scholars, combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, demonstrates the possible relationship between the risk of non interest income of commercial banks and two of the impact mechanism and the development of non interest income of commercial the risk of the bank, the purpose is to provide some ideas for the development of commercial bank non interest income for the current China's commercial banks to do business transformation, has the important practical significance of risk control.
This article is divided into five parts, which are as follows:
The first part is the introduction. First, it introduces the background and significance of this topic, then briefly summarizes the research ideas, research methods and shortcomings, and summarizes the innovation of this paper.
The second part is literature review. Firstly, defines the concept of non interest income, and then from the theory of diversification, the scope of economic theory, three basic theories of financial innovation theory introduces the commercial banks to expand non interest income, finally summarizes the empirical research on the relationship between the risk of commercial banks and non interest income at home and abroad. To lay the foundation for the analysis of the status quo analysis and empirical text.
The third part is the non interest income business in the development of our country, is the main part of this paper. Firstly, from the historical point of view, this paper describes the non interest income business development in our country, and summarizes the characteristics of each stage of non interest income is presented, and the reasons behind; then from the industry as a whole and two comparison of two kinds of bank, and combined with the development status of the non interest income of China's commercial banks data by qualitative and quantitative analysis; finally, from three aspects elaborates the influence of non interest income may have on the risk of commercial banks in China: the traditional banking credit business risk and the income level is affected, the bank operating leverage the business risk and financial leverage amplification increases, the difficulty of bank risk management increase.
The fourth part is the empirical analysis. Firstly, from the correlation between non interest income and net interest income volatility, the three periodic makes a basic judgment on the relationship between China's commercial bank risk and non interest income, the non interest income of most commercial banks in China and the net interest income is negatively correlated, and the volatility of non interest income is greater than the net interest income, but compared with the net interest income, non interest income less affected by the economic cycle fluctuations; for the risk of commercial banks followed by the establishment of standards, and finally established econometric model; empirical analysis using 2002~2011 panel data of 13 listed commercial banks, basic the conclusion is: raise the proportion of non interest income of commercial banks can effectively enhance the risk adjusted return on assets, in order to reduce the bank's risk level; however, because Non interest income volatility, it is mainly through the low correlation between the two types of income dispersion management risk, achieve diversification benefits; in addition, the state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks, non interest income of bank risk different mechanisms, specifically: the risk of non interest income brought to the state the commercial banks of the dispersion effect is more significant.
The fifth part is the conclusion. Based on the previous analysis of the status quo of non interest income and the mechanism and empirical analysis of non interest income on bank risk, this chapter draws some conclusions about the relationship between China's commercial banks' risk and non interest income.
【學位授予單位】:西南財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F832.33
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