本文關(guān)鍵詞： 供給 需求 灰色系統(tǒng) 小額信貸 SWOT　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)，特別是經(jīng)過(guò)近十年的快速發(fā)展，我國(guó)農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)了一系列值得關(guān)注的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象：1、在農(nóng)村存款逐漸增加的條件下，金融機(jī)構(gòu)中農(nóng)村貸款比例逐漸降低，非農(nóng)貸款比例不斷攀升，出現(xiàn)“存款虹吸”現(xiàn)象；2、正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)正在逐步退出農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng)，業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模不斷萎縮；3、農(nóng)村信貸成本不斷提高，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，農(nóng)民信貸需求不斷膨脹，在正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)無(wú)法滿足需求的條件下，進(jìn)而轉(zhuǎn)向民間借貸或其他非正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)，當(dāng)然也必須承擔(dān)高利率的壓力，在農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)逐漸形成“二元金融結(jié)構(gòu)”。那么為什么正規(guī)的金融機(jī)構(gòu)要轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)營(yíng)方向，放棄農(nóng)村市場(chǎng)？農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村發(fā)展又何意義？破解農(nóng)村信貸供需矛盾的關(guān)鍵又在哪里？在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上，對(duì)政府又有什么政策建議？ 為解答以上問(wèn)題，本文以實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)村信貸資金的有效配置為目標(biāo)，借鑒前人的研究經(jīng)驗(yàn)，結(jié)合當(dāng)前我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況，通過(guò)對(duì)農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)供給與需求的研究，探究農(nóng)村市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)信貸約束的深層原因，并提出相關(guān)對(duì)策提高擔(dān)保能力，降低金融機(jī)構(gòu)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)雙贏。 本文創(chuàng)新之處在于在信貸市場(chǎng)供給分析中引入灰色系統(tǒng)，并在建立模型的過(guò)程中通過(guò)逐年數(shù)據(jù)篩選的方法，最終按MAPE值（平均絕對(duì)誤差）最小選擇模型，較傳統(tǒng)的灰色系統(tǒng)模型精確度更高，分析和預(yù)測(cè)更理想。在信貸市場(chǎng)需求分析中需求主體及其行為特征進(jìn)行分析，指出了農(nóng)村信貸需求的原因以及影響信貸需求的主要因素，為相應(yīng)對(duì)策的提出提供依據(jù)。本文第五章不只是局限于給出政策建議，同時(shí)運(yùn)用公司戰(zhàn)略中廣泛應(yīng)用的SWOT分析法對(duì)其可行性進(jìn)行了分析，使建議內(nèi)容更具實(shí)用性和可信性。 通過(guò)分析我們可以得到以下結(jié)論： 1、我國(guó)農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)存在嚴(yán)重的供需失衡，且這一趨勢(shì)仍沒(méi)有得到有效的遏制； 2、在當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下，農(nóng)村信貸對(duì)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展起到舉足輕重的作用，有效增加農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)供給將為新農(nóng)村建設(shè)起到巨大的推動(dòng)作用； 3、農(nóng)村信貸資金的配置實(shí)質(zhì)上是一種稀缺性約束下的選擇性行為，我們只有通過(guò)采取有效措施才能吸引更多的資金注入農(nóng)村信貸市場(chǎng)。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, especially after nearly ten years of rapid development, China's rural credit market has a series of economic phenomenon worthy of attention: 1, under the condition of increasing rural deposits. The proportion of rural loans in financial institutions has gradually decreased, and the proportion of non-agricultural loans has been rising, resulting in the phenomenon of "deposit siphon". 2, formal financial institutions are gradually withdrawing from the rural financial market, business scale is shrinking; 3. The cost of rural credit is increasing. With the development of economy, the demand of farmers' credit is expanding constantly. Under the condition that formal financial institutions can not meet the demand, they turn to private loans or other informal financial institutions. Of course, we must also bear the pressure of high interest rate, and gradually form a "dual financial structure" in the rural credit market. So why should the formal financial institutions change their management direction and abandon the rural market? What is the meaning of rural credit to rural development? Where is the key to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of rural credit? What policy advice does the Government have on this issue? In order to answer the above questions, this paper aims to achieve the effective allocation of rural credit funds, draw lessons from previous research experience, combined with the actual situation of our country, through the rural credit market supply and demand research. This paper probes into the deep reasons for the credit constraint in rural market, and puts forward some countermeasures to improve the guarantee ability, reduce the risk of financial institutions, and finally achieve win-win situation. The innovation of this paper lies in the introduction of grey system in the analysis of the supply of credit market, and the method of year by year data screening in the process of establishing the model. Finally, the minimum selection model based on MAPE value (mean absolute error) is more accurate than the traditional grey system model. In the analysis of the demand of credit market, the main body of demand and its behavior characteristics are analyzed, and the reasons of rural credit demand and the main factors affecting the demand of credit are pointed out. Chapter 5th is not only limited to give policy recommendations, but also uses the widely used SWOT analysis method in company strategy to analyze its feasibility. Make the content of the proposal more practical and credible. Through analysis, we can draw the following conclusions: 1. There is a serious imbalance between supply and demand in the rural credit market in China, and this trend has not been effectively curbed; 2. Under the current economic conditions, rural credit plays an important role in the development of rural economy, and effectively increasing the supply of rural credit market will play a huge role in promoting the construction of new countryside; 3. The allocation of rural credit funds is essentially a selective behavior under the constraint of scarcity. Only by taking effective measures can we attract more funds into the rural credit market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.43

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