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邊遠少數(shù)民族地區(qū)肺癌醫(yī)療負擔時空分布——基于ARIMA模型

發(fā)布時間:2018-10-30 20:39
【摘要】:目的:了解邊遠少數(shù)民族地區(qū)肺癌患者的醫(yī)療負擔及時空分布,為醫(yī)療費用的控制和人們醫(yī)療負擔的緩解提供決策依據(jù)。方法:測算2010-2015年肺癌患者的醫(yī)療負擔、診斷費、治療費和其他費用的人年均費用及增長速度;使用T檢驗和秩和檢驗分析不同性別、民族、是否手術、不同年齡、出院轉歸之間費用的差異性;使用ARIMA模型預測2016年-2017年肺癌疾病醫(yī)療負擔的時空發(fā)展趨勢及費用。結果:肺癌患者疾病醫(yī)療負擔比較重,費用主要以診斷費和藥費為主;不同民族、是否手術、不同年齡、出院轉歸之間的醫(yī)療負擔差異有統(tǒng)計學意義(P0.05);經(jīng)分析預測,從2010-2015年醫(yī)療負擔平均增長速度為0.22%,肺癌患者醫(yī)療總負擔在時空上呈緩慢上升趨勢。結論:肺癌患者疾病醫(yī)療負擔不容忽視,應對疾病產(chǎn)生的環(huán)境因素進行進一步的研究,在邊遠貧困的少數(shù)民族地區(qū)宣傳肺癌疾病的預防,做到早發(fā)現(xiàn),早診斷,早治療,提高少數(shù)民族的就醫(yī)意識;加快大病保險的改革,改善人們的疾病醫(yī)療負擔;推進"醫(yī)養(yǎng)結合"政策的實施,從老年人口出發(fā)緩解肺癌患者疾病醫(yī)療負擔。
[Abstract]:Objective: to investigate the medical burden and temporal and spatial distribution of lung cancer patients in remote ethnic minority areas, and to provide decision basis for the control of medical expenses and the relief of people's medical burden. Methods: the average annual cost and growth rate of lung cancer patients' medical burden, diagnosis fee, treatment fee and other expenses from 2010 to 2015 were calculated. T test and rank sum test were used to analyze the difference of cost between gender, nationality, operation, age and outcome of discharge, and ARIMA model was used to predict the development trend and cost of the medical burden of lung cancer from 2016 to 2017. Results: the medical burden of lung cancer patients was heavy, the cost was mainly the cost of diagnosis and medicine, the difference of medical burden between different nationalities, operation, age and discharge was statistically significant (P0.05). From 2010 to 2015, the average growth rate of medical burden is 0.22. The total medical burden of lung cancer patients is increasing slowly in time and space. Conclusion: the medical burden of lung cancer patients should not be ignored, the environmental factors should be further studied, the prevention of lung cancer diseases should be propagated in the remote and poor minority areas, and early detection, diagnosis and treatment should be achieved. To raise the awareness of medical treatment of ethnic minorities; To speed up the reform of the insurance for serious illness, to improve the medical burden of people's disease, to promote the implementation of the policy of "combination of medical treatment and support", and to alleviate the medical burden of lung cancer patients from the elderly population.
【作者單位】: 新疆醫(yī)科大學公共衛(wèi)生學院;復旦大學協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心新疆醫(yī)科大學分中心;
【基金】:新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)科技項目“新疆醫(yī)療保障均等化趨勢研究”(編號:201442113) 華西合作項目(橫向課題):肺癌疾病經(jīng)濟負擔研究
【分類號】:R734.2

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1 林春芳,周天樞,陳崇幗;用ARIMA模型預測福建肝癌發(fā)展趨勢[J];中國公共衛(wèi)生;1998年12期



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