【摘要】：目的研究氣象因素影響廣東省手足口病流行的閾值效應(yīng),為該省手足口病預(yù)警和防控提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。方法利用2009-2012年廣東省手足口病監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)和同期的氣象數(shù)據(jù),建立分類回歸樹模型,探明氣象因素影響手足口病發(fā)病的閾值效應(yīng),并預(yù)測2013年手足口病的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)段。結(jié)果回歸樹模型結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)平均氣溫≥193.7(0.1℃)并且平均相對濕度≥79.21(1%)時(shí),發(fā)病的相對危險(xiǎn)度達(dá)到最大,RR=1.92。分類樹模型結(jié)果顯示當(dāng)平均氣溫≥197.5(0.1℃),并且平均相對濕度≥77.39(1%)時(shí),手足口病的暴發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最大(P=0.786)。最后預(yù)測結(jié)果顯示4-9月是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)段。結(jié)論基于分類回歸樹模型的閾值效應(yīng)研究在手足口病危險(xiǎn)因素篩選和發(fā)病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)警等方面具有一定的實(shí)用價(jià)值。
[Abstract]:Objective to study the threshold effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of HFMD in Guangdong Province, and to provide scientific basis for early warning and prevention and control of HFMD in Guangdong Province. Methods based on the HFMD surveillance data and meteorological data from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong Province, a classified regression tree model was established to find out the threshold effect of meteorological factors on HFMD, and to predict the high risk period of HFMD in 2013. Results the results of regression tree model showed that when the mean temperature 鈮，

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