【摘要】：背景：我國是世界上最大的鉛生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)國,但我國鉛鋅行業(yè)發(fā)展具有明顯的粗放型特征,其“小、散、差”的特點(diǎn)會導(dǎo)致“涉鉛企業(yè)”在采選、冶煉、加工和回收再利用等各環(huán)節(jié)將污染物鉛釋放到環(huán)境或生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中,經(jīng)過留存、積累和遷移,并通過呼吸道、消化道或手-口等途徑暴露于人體,對人體造成損害,甚至對嬰幼兒發(fā)育和智力造成不可逆損害。鉛污染導(dǎo)致的健康損害事件,已在一些地區(qū)引發(fā)了群體性事件,威脅社會穩(wěn)定與和諧。然而,雖然鉛污染來源廣、危害大,但其并非隨時隨地成害,而是具有明顯的區(qū)域聚集效應(yīng),因此在行政資源有限的情況下,對其防治,首先需要明確鉛污染健康風(fēng)險空間分布情況,以便對鉛污染高風(fēng)險區(qū)域進(jìn)行優(yōu)先管理。針對此,盡管既往研究已做了相關(guān)探索,但從服務(wù)于風(fēng)險管理而言,尚存在一定的不足。目的：基于鉛污染導(dǎo)致健康損害的形成過程,探討基于空間分布鉛污染健康風(fēng)險評價和區(qū)劃方法,開展實例研究,以期為基層鉛污染風(fēng)險管理提供方法指導(dǎo)和科學(xué)依據(jù)。方法：在回顧既往環(huán)境污染健康風(fēng)險評價技術(shù)與方法、鉛污染健康風(fēng)險的形成過程、特征的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合專家意見確定和構(gòu)建鉛污染健康風(fēng)險區(qū)劃的步驟,通過專家咨詢法構(gòu)建鉛污染健康風(fēng)險綜合評價初始指標(biāo)體系,使用層次分析法計算各指標(biāo)的權(quán)重系數(shù),形成了鉛污染健康風(fēng)險綜合評價指標(biāo)體系,并據(jù)此指標(biāo)體系對鉛污染典型案例區(qū)——者海,開展以行政村為單位的小尺度鉛污染健康風(fēng)險評價,最后根據(jù)“行政村百分位數(shù)法”實現(xiàn)了28個行政村的風(fēng)險區(qū)劃。結(jié)果：(1)兩輪專家咨詢的結(jié)果具有較好的可靠性,有效回收率均高于90%,權(quán)威系數(shù)分別為0.81和0.84,協(xié)調(diào)性系數(shù)均介于0.816～0.917間。(2)鉛污染健康風(fēng)險評價體系由源的危險性、人群易損性和風(fēng)險可達(dá)性三個準(zhǔn)則層,11項指標(biāo)組成,三個準(zhǔn)則層的貢獻(xiàn)率分別為0.5343、0.1653和0.3004。(3)按行政區(qū)25%原則,依據(jù)健康風(fēng)險的相對大小,將阿依卡、螞色卡、新村、三家村、者海村、犀牛村和鋼鐵村7個行政村劃為高風(fēng)險區(qū)。結(jié)論：鉛污染健康風(fēng)險的形成,以風(fēng)險源的危險性為主導(dǎo),并受區(qū)域人群易損性和風(fēng)險可達(dá)性的綜合影響。這一鉛污染健康風(fēng)險評價與區(qū)劃方法是科學(xué)、易行的,不僅可用于區(qū)域健康風(fēng)險的現(xiàn)狀評價還可用于風(fēng)險預(yù)測。
[Abstract]:Background: China is the world's largest lead production and consumption country, but the development of lead and zinc industry in China has obvious extensive characteristics, its "small, scattered, poor" characteristics will lead to "lead-related enterprises" in the extraction, smelting, Lead is released into the environment or ecosystem through processing and recycling, and is exposed to the human body through respiratory tract, digestive tract or hand mouth, which is harmful to human body. It even causes irreversible damage to infant development and intelligence. The health damage caused by lead pollution has caused mass events in some areas, threatening social stability and harmony. However, although lead pollution has a wide range of sources and great harm, it does not cause harm at any time or anywhere, but has a distinct regional aggregation effect, so that it can be prevented and controlled in the case of limited administrative resources. First of all, the spatial distribution of lead pollution health risk should be clarified in order to give priority to lead pollution risk areas. In view of this, although previous studies have made relevant exploration, but from the point of view of serving risk management, there are still some shortcomings. Objective: based on the formation process of health damage caused by lead pollution, the method of health risk assessment and regionalization based on spatial distribution of lead pollution was discussed, and a case study was carried out in order to provide method guidance and scientific basis for the risk management of lead pollution at basic level. Methods: on the basis of reviewing the previous assessment techniques and methods of environmental pollution health risk, the forming process and characteristics of lead pollution health risk, and combining with the expert opinion, the steps of determining and constructing the health risk regionalization of lead pollution were discussed. The initial index system of comprehensive evaluation of lead pollution health risk was constructed by expert consultation method. The weight coefficient of each index was calculated by AHP, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of lead pollution health risk was formed. On the basis of this index system, the health risk assessment of lead pollution in small scale is carried out on the basis of the typical case area of lead pollution, that is, Zhihai. Finally, the risk regionalization of 28 administrative villages is realized according to the "percentile method of administrative villages". Results: (1) the results of the two rounds of expert consultation were reliable, the effective recovery rate was higher than 90, the authoritative coefficients were 0.81 and 0.84, and the coordination coefficients were between 0.816 and 0.917. (2) the risk of the health risk assessment system of lead pollution was from the source. The three criterion layers of vulnerability and risk accessibility of the population were composed of 11 indexes. The contribution rates of the three criteria layers were 0.5343U 0.1653 and 0.30044.3.According to the principle of 25% of the administrative region, according to the relative size of health risk, Ayika, Maserka, Xincun, Sanjia Village, The sea village, rhinoceros village and iron village 7 administrative villages designated as high risk areas. Conclusion: the formation of health risk of lead pollution is dominated by the risk source and affected by the vulnerability and risk accessibility of regional population. The method of health risk assessment and regionalization of lead pollution is scientific and feasible. It can be used not only to evaluate the current situation of regional health risk, but also to predict the risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京中醫(yī)藥大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X820.4;R12

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