運(yùn)用證據(jù)權(quán)重與確定性系數(shù)合成模型進(jìn)行釘螺-環(huán)境因子的空間關(guān)系研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-03-19 10:50
本文選題:鄱陽(yáng)湖 切入點(diǎn):釘螺-環(huán)境關(guān)系 出處:《長(zhǎng)江流域資源與環(huán)境》2017年09期 論文類型:期刊論文
【摘要】:釘螺是血吸蟲唯一中間宿主,研究釘螺與孳生環(huán)境因子的空間關(guān)系對(duì)采取有效的查螺、滅螺措施有重要的科學(xué)和社會(huì)價(jià)值。以鄱陽(yáng)湖恒湖農(nóng)場(chǎng)茶葉港草洲為研究對(duì)象,應(yīng)用證據(jù)權(quán)重法與確定性系數(shù)法合成模型研究植物南荻、苔草、藜蒿、土壤溫度、土壤濕度、導(dǎo)電率、海拔高程7個(gè)證據(jù)因子與"釘螺出現(xiàn)與否"的空間關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明:研究區(qū)內(nèi)一定范圍內(nèi)高程的增加易于釘螺孳生;釘螺在濕度相對(duì)較大(大于0.35%(m~3/m~3))的環(huán)境中分布較少;苔草豐度過(guò)大(高于4 368 cm~3/m2)過(guò)小(低于1 457 cm~3/m2)都不利于釘螺孳生;釘螺較易孳生在南荻豐度較大(高于2 745 cm~3/m2)的區(qū)域;電導(dǎo)率較高(高于0.07 m S/cm)區(qū)域釘螺較少;土壤溫度在16~20℃范圍利于釘螺孳生。在模型預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果圖中,占研究區(qū)總面積13.7%的極高易發(fā)區(qū)的較小范圍內(nèi)預(yù)測(cè)到82%的釘螺空間分布,評(píng)價(jià)曲線的曲線下面積高達(dá)88.7%,說(shuō)明模型的預(yù)測(cè)成功率很高,表明該模型適合研究區(qū)域釘螺孳生與其影響因子之間的空間關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. It is of great scientific and social value to study the spatial relationship between Oncomelania hupensis and breeding environment factors in order to take effective snail detection and snail control measures. A synthetic model was used to study the soil temperature, soil humidity, electrical conductivity of Artemisia mongolicum, Carex spp., Artemisia mongolica, and soil moisture by using evidence weight method and certainty coefficient method. The spatial relationship between the seven evidential factors of altitude and the occurrence or not of Oncomelania hupensis. The results showed that the increase of elevation in the study area was easy for snail breeding, and the snail was less distributed in the environment where the humidity was higher than 0.35% (> 0.35%). Too large abundance (> 4 368 cm ~ (3 / m ~ (2))) (< 1 457 cm / m ~ (3) 路m ~ (2)) was unfavorable to snail breeding, snails were more likely to breed in areas with higher abundance (> 2 745 cm ~ (3) 路m ~ (2)), and snails with high electrical conductivity (> 0. 07 m 路s / m ~ (2)) were less. The soil temperature of 16 ~ 20 鈩,
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