本文關(guān)鍵詞： 手足口病 流行特征 腸道病毒　出處：《預(yù)防醫(yī)學(xué)情報(bào)雜志》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的分析遼寧省阜新市2009-2015年手足口病流行病學(xué)特征,預(yù)測(cè)手足口病短期趨勢(shì)。方法采用描述流行病學(xué)分析和相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法,對(duì)阜新市2009-2015年手足口病的流行病學(xué)特征進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。利用2009-01/2016-06的分月手足口病發(fā)病數(shù)時(shí)間序列構(gòu)建自回歸移動(dòng)平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12。結(jié)果 2009-2015年阜新市共報(bào)告手足口病4 419例,年均發(fā)病率為30.72/10萬,無死亡病例,全市7個(gè)縣(區(qū))均出現(xiàn)不同程度的流行,以市區(qū)、縣為主。時(shí)間分布呈單峰型,主要集中在6~8月;年齡以≤5歲兒童為主,集中在散居兒童和幼托兒童;病原類型以EV71為優(yōu)勢(shì)病原,柯薩奇A組16型(Cox A16)和其他腸道病毒所占比例接近。結(jié)論阜新市手足口病季節(jié)性明顯,呈周期性流行,市區(qū)和縣是重點(diǎn)防控地區(qū),不同地區(qū)優(yōu)勢(shì)病原不同,病原監(jiān)測(cè)盡量采集發(fā)病7d內(nèi)的樣本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期預(yù)測(cè)。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City, Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2015, and to predict the short-term trend of HFMD. Methods descriptive epidemiological analysis and statistical analysis were used. The epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City from 2009 to 2015 were statistically analyzed. The autoregressive movement was constructed by using the number of time series of monthly HFMD in 2009-01 / 2016-06. Average model Arima (. 1. Results A total of 4 419 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were reported in Fuxin city from 2009 to 2015. The average annual incidence rate was 30 72 / 100 000. No death cases were reported. In the seven counties (districts) of the whole city, the epidemic occurred in different degrees, mainly in urban area and county. The time distribution was single-peak type, which was mainly concentrated from 6 to August. Age 鈮，

本文編號(hào)：1468936