發(fā)布時間：2018-01-27 16:51

  本文關鍵詞： 手足口病 流行特征 腸道病毒　出處：《預防醫(yī)學情報雜志》2017年03期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：目的分析遼寧省阜新市2009-2015年手足口病流行病學特征,預測手足口病短期趨勢。方法采用描述流行病學分析和相關統(tǒng)計分析方法,對阜新市2009-2015年手足口病的流行病學特征進行統(tǒng)計分析。利用2009-01/2016-06的分月手足口病發(fā)病數(shù)時間序列構建自回歸移動平均模型ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12。結果 2009-2015年阜新市共報告手足口病4 419例,年均發(fā)病率為30.72/10萬,無死亡病例,全市7個縣(區(qū))均出現(xiàn)不同程度的流行,以市區(qū)、縣為主。時間分布呈單峰型,主要集中在6~8月;年齡以≤5歲兒童為主,集中在散居兒童和幼托兒童;病原類型以EV71為優(yōu)勢病原,柯薩奇A組16型(Cox A16)和其他腸道病毒所占比例接近。結論阜新市手足口病季節(jié)性明顯,呈周期性流行,市區(qū)和縣是重點防控地區(qū),不同地區(qū)優(yōu)勢病原不同,病原監(jiān)測盡量采集發(fā)病7d內的樣本,ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可用于阜新市手足口病短期預測。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City, Liaoning Province from 2009 to 2015, and to predict the short-term trend of HFMD. Methods descriptive epidemiological analysis and statistical analysis were used. The epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Fuxin City from 2009 to 2015 were statistically analyzed. The autoregressive movement was constructed by using the number of time series of monthly HFMD in 2009-01 / 2016-06. Average model Arima (. 1. Results A total of 4 419 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease were reported in Fuxin city from 2009 to 2015. The average annual incidence rate was 30 72 / 100 000. No death cases were reported. In the seven counties (districts) of the whole city, the epidemic occurred in different degrees, mainly in urban area and county. The time distribution was single-peak type, which was mainly concentrated from 6 to August. Age 鈮，

本文編號：1468936