【摘要】：目的分析甘肅省2008—2013年傳染病自動預(yù)警系統(tǒng)時間模型的運行結(jié)果,評價該預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的靈敏性和實用性,為進一步優(yōu)化預(yù)警閾值提供參考依據(jù)。方法收集甘肅省2008年1月—2013年12月傳染病預(yù)警數(shù)據(jù),分析傳染病預(yù)警系統(tǒng)時間模型產(chǎn)生的預(yù)警信號數(shù)量及響應(yīng)結(jié)果,并比較不同病種和地區(qū)預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整前后的預(yù)警結(jié)果。結(jié)果甘肅省2008—2013年傳染病自動預(yù)警系統(tǒng)共發(fā)出預(yù)警信號39 940條,報告病例數(shù)與預(yù)警信號數(shù)比值為9.01:1,疑似事件信號數(shù)占預(yù)警信號數(shù)的1.57%,預(yù)警信號陽性率為0.64%;發(fā)出預(yù)警信號最多的病種為痢疾、其他感染性腹瀉、流行性腮腺炎,占所有預(yù)警信號的63.17%;在預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整后,預(yù)警系統(tǒng)靈敏度由70.59%下降至39.62%,預(yù)警信號陽性率由0.88%下降至0.34%,流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎、風(fēng)疹、手足口病、其他感染性腹瀉、痢疾、甲肝、急性出血性結(jié)膜炎預(yù)警陽性率下降;預(yù)警信號共覆蓋甘肅省14個市州86個縣區(qū),響應(yīng)時間中位數(shù)為0.84 h;在預(yù)警閾值調(diào)整后,僅蘭州市、嘉峪關(guān)市預(yù)警信號陽性率上升,所有市州信號響應(yīng)時間中位數(shù)均較調(diào)整前縮短。結(jié)論甘肅省2008—2013年傳染病自動預(yù)警系統(tǒng)運行穩(wěn)定,預(yù)警系統(tǒng)閾值調(diào)整后預(yù)警效果欠佳,今后將根據(jù)不同病種和地區(qū)的具體情況優(yōu)化閾值,減少假陽性預(yù)警,進一步提高預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的靈敏度和特異度。
[Abstract]:Objective to analyze the operating results of the time model of the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013, to evaluate the sensitivity and practicability of the early warning system, and to provide a reference basis for further optimization of the early warning threshold. Methods the early warning data of infectious diseases in Gansu Province from January 2008 to December 2013 were collected, and the number and response results of early warning signals generated by time model of early warning system of infectious diseases were analyzed, and the early warning results before and after the adjustment of early warning threshold for different diseases and regions were compared. Results A total of 39,940 early warning signals were issued by the automatic early warning system for infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013. The ratio of reported cases to early warning signals was 9.01: 1, and the number of suspected incidents accounted for 1.57 of the early warning signals. The positive rate of warning signal was 0.64; The most common early warning signs were dysentery, other infectious diarrhea, and mumps, accounting for 63.17g of all warning signs; The sensitivity of early warning system decreased from 70.59% to 39.62%, the positive rate of warning signal decreased from 0.88% to 0.34%, influenza, mumps, rubella, hand, foot and mouth disease, Other infectious diarrhea, dysentery, hepatitis A, acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis early warning positive rate decreased; The early warning signal covers 86 counties of 14 cities and states in Gansu Province, and the median response time is 0.84 h. After adjusting the warning threshold, the positive rate of early warning signal in Lanzhou City and Jiayuguan City increased, and the median response time of signal in all cities was shorter than that before adjustment. Conclusion the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases in Gansu Province from 2008 to 2013 is stable, and the effect of early warning after adjusting the threshold value of early warning system is poor. In the future, the threshold will be optimized according to the specific conditions of different diseases and regions to reduce false positive early warning. Further improve the sensitivity and specificity of the early warning system.
【作者單位】： 甘肅省疾病預(yù)防控制中心;
【基金】：甘肅省衛(wèi)生行業(yè)科研管理項目(GWGL2014-83)
【分類號】：R181.8

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