【摘要】：目的掌握安徽省池州市貴池區(qū)血吸蟲病流行規(guī)律,為制定防治措施提供參考依據(jù)。方法收集1991-2011年貴池區(qū)血吸蟲病疫情資料,采用描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,統(tǒng)計(jì)病情、螺情等血吸蟲病疫情指標(biāo)。應(yīng)用自回歸求和移動平均模型(Autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)分析該地區(qū)血吸蟲病發(fā)病率的變化趨勢。結(jié)果不同血吸蟲病流行類型地區(qū)的實(shí)際有螺面積差異有統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)意義(F=256.79,P0.05),人群患病率隨釘螺實(shí)際有螺面積的增加而升高(P0.05),并且有4個(gè)波動高峰(1992、1995、2005、2008年)。時(shí)間序列分析顯示ARIMA(1,1,1)是擬合最優(yōu)模型,短期預(yù)測2012-2015年貴池區(qū)血吸蟲病發(fā)病率分別為0.017%、0.007%、0.012%和0.010%。結(jié)論貴池區(qū)血吸蟲病疫情得到了有效控制,但湖灘地區(qū)仍應(yīng)加強(qiáng)監(jiān)測,以防止疫情回升。
[Abstract]:Objective to understand the epidemic law of schistosomiasis in Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, and to provide reference for the prevention and control measures. Methods the epidemic data of schistosomiasis in Guichi district from 1991 to 2011 were collected and the epidemic index of schistosomiasis such as disease condition and snail condition were counted by descriptive statistical method. The trend of schistosomiasis incidence in this area was analyzed by autoregressive and moving average model (Autoregressive integrated moving averagea). Results there was significant difference in actual snail area among different schistosomiasis endemic areas (FF256.79). The prevalence rate of population increased with the increase of snail area (P0.05), and there were four peaks of fluctuation (19921995 / 2005, 2008). Time series analysis showed that ARIMA was the best fit model, and the incidence of schistosomiasis in Guichi from 2012 to 2015 was 0.017% and 0.010% respectively. Conclusion the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi district has been effectively controlled, but the surveillance of schistosomiasis in lake and beach area should be strengthened in order to prevent the epidemic from rising again.
【作者單位】： 復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院流行病學(xué)與生物統(tǒng)計(jì)教研室 復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院公共衛(wèi)生安全教育部重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室 健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警治理協(xié)同創(chuàng)新中心 復(fù)旦大學(xué)公共衛(wèi)生學(xué)院空間分析與建模實(shí)驗(yàn)室;安徽省池州市貴池區(qū)血吸蟲病防治站;
【基金】：上海市新優(yōu)青計(jì)劃(XYQ2013071)
【分類號】：R181.8;R532.21

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